Commentary Magazine


Contentions

Florida Poll Raises More Electability Concerns for Gingrich

Two bombshell polls out yesterday showed Newt Gingrich with a substantial lead against Mitt Romney among Florida GOP voters. Jonathan wrote about the Florida Times-Union survey, which found Gingrich leading the field with a 24-point advantage over Romney. Another Public Policy Polling poll reported roughly the same numbers.

But that massive lead in the state GOP race hasn’t translated into general election popularity. While Romney continues to tie Obama in a head-to-head matchup, Gingrich trails the president by six points:

If Mitt Romney’s the Republican nominee, Obama’s in a lot of trouble in the Sunshine State. Obama leads Romney only 45-44, and given that the undecideds skew largely Republican he’d probably lose to Romney if the election was today. Obama being stuck in the mid-4os against Romney is par for the course in our Florida polling. In September Obama led 46-45, in June it was 47-43, and in March it was 46-44.  The dial has barely moved all year.

But if Newt Gingrich is the Republican nominee it’s a completely different story.  Obama leads him 50-44 in a head to head. To find the last time a GOP presidential candidate lost Florida by more than that you have to go all the way back to Thomas Dewey in 1948.  Even Barry Goldwater did better in Florida than Gingrich is right now.

Romney has more appeal with independent voters, who are the ones who tend to decide elections in swing states. And while he doesn’t incite as much enthusiasm among Republicans in Florida as Gingrich does, this doesn’t seem to hurt him in a general election match up – for any GOP voters Romney may lose, he gains more than enough in independent voter support to close the gap. One concern about having Gingrich as the nominee has been that he’s a loose cannon who could make comments that alienate voters during a general election. But polls like these raise questions about whether or not he could even attract independent voters in swing states.


Join the discussion…

Are you a subscriber? Log in to comment »

Not a subscriber? Join the discussion today, subscribe to Commentary »





Welcome to Commentary Magazine.
We hope you enjoy your visit.
As a visitor to our site, you are allowed 8 free articles this month.
This is your first of 8 free articles.

If you are already a digital subscriber, log in here »

Print subscriber? For free access to the website and iPad, register here »

To subscribe, click here to see our subscription offers »

Please note this is an advertisement skip this ad
Clearly, you have a passion for ideas.
Subscribe today for unlimited digital access to the publication that shapes the minds of the people who shape our world.
Get for just
YOU HAVE READ OF 8 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH.
FOR JUST
YOU HAVE READ OF 8 FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH.
FOR JUST
Welcome to Commentary Magazine.
We hope you enjoy your visit.
As a visitor, you are allowed 8 free articles.
This is your first article.
You have read of 8 free articles this month.
YOU HAVE READ 8 OF 8
FREE ARTICLES THIS MONTH.
for full access to
CommentaryMagazine.com
INCLUDES FULL ACCESS TO:
Digital subscriber?
Print subscriber? Get free access »
Call to subscribe: 1-800-829-6270
You can also subscribe
on your computer at
CommentaryMagazine.com.
LOG IN WITH YOUR
COMMENTARY MAGAZINE ID
Don't have a CommentaryMagazine.com log in?
CREATE A COMMENTARY
LOG IN ID
Enter you email address and password below. A confirmation email will be sent to the email address that you provide.