In his interview with ABC’s Jake Tapper, Newt Gingrich declared, “I’m going to be the nominee. It’s very hard not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high I’m going to be the nominee.”
Actually, it’s not that hard.
It’s certainly possible that Gingrich will be the Republican nominee, and he’s certainly stronger than any of the other challengers to Mitt Romney. Unlike the others, Gingrich has the ability to weave a compelling case for his presidency. He can be quite interesting to listen to. And the enthusiasm for Gingrich is undoubtedly growing, at least right now. Still, no votes have been cast. Gingrich himself has, at least until this week, gone untargeted by any Republican candidates. His ground operation is still weak. He is a man whose life has been characterized by enormous indiscipline. And there’s a reason that Gingrich, during his tenure as Speaker of the House, ranked among the most unpopular politicians in America.
Whatever his other (considerable) gifts may be, Newt Gingrich has the ability to rub people–lots of people–the wrong way.
I understand the former House Speaker views himself as a world-historical figure, having recently declared himself to be “much like Reagan and Margaret Thatcher” (an “unconventional political figure that you really need to design a unique campaign” for). But that comparison, too, strikes me as a bit premature.
The mistake often made in politics is that people get caught up in a moment in time; they assume the current state of affairs is (more or less) the way things will be, that the current trajectory will continue and current enthusiasm will remain undimmed. Maybe, or maybe not. But remember: just a few weeks ago Gingrich was still in the middle of the pack. In politics in general, and in presidential primaries in particular, the currents can change swiftly and suddenly, and sometimes brutally. Politicians who seem unbeatable one day might be brought to their knees the next day. To quote Donald Rumsfeld in another context, “Stuff happens.”
A lot of stuff is going to happen between now and the end of the primary season. In the meantime, Gingrich might want to reacquaint himself with this [] painting by Herbert James Draper. It’s titled, “The Lament for Icarus.”
I think people, pundits especially, forget how much Newt Gingrich accomplished as Speaker. There is a strong argument to make that Newt Gingrich has delivered on conservative principle than any other politician except for Ronaldus Magnus. His accomplishments were huge and taken for granted today. Let's take a stroll down memory lane: n* Welfare reform n* Tax reform, cut capital gains rates by 25% n* Balanced budgets in 1998 and 1999 because of the efforts of the 104th and 105th Congresses n* Delivered on 9 of 10 items in the Contract With America n* Led the GOP to a majority in the House for the first time in 40 years n* Survived the Clinton oppo machine n
Newt has not been perfect, and is not an ideal candidate. His accomplishments were attained with a liberal POTUS and a strident caucus in the House. As in all cases with politicians, his half life was reached in the House and was ousted. However, he has delivered more for the conservative cause than any other Speaker and has much more experience in the meat grinder of the media than any other candidate. To assume Newt will implode may be assuming too much. He may, but he has also shown the ability to overcome.
I think it is time for Contentions bloggers to openly admit their endorsements of Romney. Get it out on the table. For months upon months, as Romney's numbers did nothing but stagnate in the low 20s — New Hampshire excluded, all Contentions and many of the so-called elites did was sell the message that Romney was inevitable. This took a variety of forms, but the facts that not one vote would take place for a long time and that Romney's numbers weren't moving did not matter. n nNow that the first primary and caucus dates are within range, conservatives apparently have begun to coalesce around Gingrich, and support for Romney even has started to slip, now we are reminded that no votes have been cast. Yes, indeed, we shall see. n nDon't get me wrong — this side of Ron Paul, whoever the Republican nominee is will get enthusiastic and loud support from me and conservatives generally. But don't expect that support to go to Romney in the primaries absent the collapse of all of the conservative candidates in the field.
Spaklaw is spot on. Contentions' bloggers have been championing Romney this whole cycle, as is their prerogative. However, not a single vote has been cast yet that counts; I, for one, would like to see where the votes turn out first.
As the wandering disillusioned Blue Dog democrat, the part I do not understand is why anyone thinks Mr. Romney is so electable. Does he think no one notices his irritability at being questioned? nMr. Gingrich may indeed falter without any ground organization. n nI almost hope it is another winter of frequent snow shovelling, because America may not know who will be on either ballot until late March, 2012. I had a phone call tonight from an always-loyal dem, and she asked me if Bill Clinton might run again. We then lamented the retirement of Senator Jim Webb. n nAnd I went back to figuring out what is happening in Syria. (Colonel Assad v President Assad – is this a movie script?) nMuch more important than Newt's hubris, or Mitt not really knowing why he is running for president except that it is what he wants to do.
Obama is the Icarus (and Narcissus). Conservative pundits should be pounding Obama, not the Republican candidates.