Bashar Assad just lost another major ally. No, not Iran: Tehran is still the regime’s staunch backer–the only one it has left. No, not Turkey: Ankara turned against Assad weeks ago. And not Hamas: It too has already abandoned Assad. The latest government to join the anti-Assad caucus? Israel.
At first glance, this may seem like a surprising defection. Who would ever have expected Israel to be a supporter of Assad in the first place? Syria under the Assads (father and son) fought Israel in 1972 and 1982–and those were just the overt wars. Syria has also been a major source of surreptitious support to anti-Israel terror groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Yet all the while, Israeli officials quietly supported the Assads–or at least did not try to topple them–on the “better the devil you know” theory. Now that’s changed, with Defense Minister Ehud Barak telling reporters that Assad is finished and that’s a good thing:
“When the Assad family falls, it will be a major blow to the radical axis led by Iran,” Barak said. “It will weaken Iran, it will weaken Hezbollah and weaken the backing for Hamas, and it will deprive the Iranians of a real stronghold in the Arab world. It will strengthen Turkey, which is a natural rival to Iran’s hegemonic intentions…This is something positive for Israel.”
The only mystery here is why the Israeli leadership has only now realized keeping Assad in power is not in their country’s interest. But better late than never.
The challenge now will be to usher Assad out as quickly as possible. Count me as skeptical he will be ousted within “weeks” as Barak predicts. He can hang on much longer, I fear, while Syrian society is ripped apart. Yet the Obama administration is adopting an unthinking policy of refusing to support armed rebellion against the criminal clique in Damascus.
This may seem to be a humanitarian policy–who can argue in theory with nonviolence?–but in fact it is deeply immoral because it consigns more Syrian civilians to death at the hands of ruthless government goons. It is high time for the administration to adopt the policy urged by the Washington Post editorial board which writes: ”If it is not doing so already, the administration should be quietly working with Arab allies such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as with Turkey, to provide greater support to the opposition — including its armed components.”
"Syrian society is ripped apart" may not be so bad, for Israel. Islamists appear to takeover these collapsed regimes. Maybe that is why Israel has been hesitant to support these anti-Assad forces. Furthermore, Israel's support would not play well in any of these anti-Semitic societies. But, as the author here states, being bad for Iran is generally good for Israel. And the US as well, although Obama doesn't seem to be aware of that.
Since the Assads (father and son) have been on the receiving end of Israel's overt and covert military might, they know where the line is that cannot be crossed. Israel considers Syria as 'contained'. A new regime may believe they will fare better against Israel which would at a minimum introduce uncertainty into the relationship as limits were tested. It may then require a new conflict for lessons to be learned.
Why has Israel been hesitant? n nPerhaps because they will be asked by their good friends in Washington to pay for the 'moderateness' or 'stabilization' of whoever follows, with the Golan Heights. n nIn any event, Ehud Barak frequently speaks out of turn.
Max, Ehud Barak spoke about the Assad regime's approaching end back in the spring, in April or May and since then. The remarks by Barak that you refer to are much in line with what he had to say then. The latest remarks, therefore, are nothing new. You might check what Tony Badran had to say about Israel's position on the Assad regime.
Just tonight I heard Dan Ayalon, deputy foreign minister of Israel on a panel discussion on Israel Radio, Reshet Beyt. He was very clear that it would be good for Israel if the Assad regime fell. Gen. Uzi Dayan (retired) said much the same. I heard Ayalon say things like that months ago.