A new Associated Press-GfK poll found the following:
* President Obama’s overall job approval stands at a new low, with 44 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving.
* The president’s standing among independents is worse: 38 percent approve while 59 percent disapprove.
* For the first time, the poll found that a majority of adults, 52 percent, said Obama should be voted out of office while 43 percent said he deserves another term.
* About two-thirds of white voters without college degrees say Obama should be a one-term president, while 33 percent of those voters say he should get another four years. Among white voters with a college degree, 57 percent said Obama should be voted out of office.
* Obama’s approval rating on the handling of the economy is 39 percent approve while 60 percent disapprove.
* Only 26 percent said the United States is headed in the right direction while 70 percent said the country is moving in the wrong direction.
*About half of the respondents oppose the health care law and support for it dipped to 29 percent from 36 percent in June. Just 15 percent said the federal government should have the power to require all Americans to buy health insurance. Only 50 percent of Democrats support the health care law, compared with 59 percent of Democrats last June. And only about a quarter of independents back the law.
What all this means is while the attention of the political world continues to focus on the Republican primary race, President Obama’s political problems continue to mount.
The situation we find ourselves in is analogous to 1979-1980, at least in this respect: The country has made the judgment, at least for now, that the current occupant of the White House is a failure, inept and in over his head. Americans are certainly disposed to vote against Obama; the question is whether the Republican nominee provides sufficient reassurance to the majority of the public who believe the president should be voted out of office. Ronald Reagan did that in 1980; but only in the last few weeks of the election – and due in large part to his debate performance in Cleveland (held on October 28). As Craig Shirley points out in his excellent book Rendezvous with Destiny: Ronald Reagan and the Campaign That Changed America, the morning of the debate a Washington Post story featured this headline: “Carter Goes Into Debate With Lead in New Poll.”
Even with an unpopular president, the opposition party has to nominate someone who can make the sale. That’s what Republicans did in 1980; as a result, Reagan won 44 states and many Democratic “old bulls” in Congress (like Washington State’s Warren Magnuson) were washed away. There’s a lesson to be learned for Republicans in 2012. Regardless of how unpopular Obama becomes, the GOP nominee has to be able to close the deal. That’s what the primary process–as long and brutal as it is–is meant to determine.
As the Hebrew saying goes – Ken Yirbu (trans – and so it should be multiplied).
Well, as the old American saying goes, you can't beat something with nothing. The choice isn't between Obama (failure) and Generic Republican (projected hopes). The GOP base (admittedly before the actual voting starts) has not shown a high degree of discrimination in its faddish determination to strike up infatuations with Cain, Gingrich, and even Ron Paul.
but besht, the thing that makes Romney unappealing to the conservative Republicans is what will–hopefully–make him more appealing to the independents and maybe even some Democrats. independents aren't going to vote for Gingrich, and nobody's going to vote for Ron Paul except his hardcore fanatic following. Romney's our only chance to send Obama home to Chicago in 2013.
I am beginning to be just a tiny bit optimistic now with the GOP process. I think the rise of Herman Cain and then Gingrich has less to do with "infatuation" as besht says above than it has to do with inquiry. Given that the GOP is infamous for throwing the nomination to the establishment pick, I interpret the polling data to be a demand by conservatives that the establishment pick (inarguably Romney) not be accepted without a serious look at other candidates. So Cain got a thorough look and when the spotlight revealed genuine weaknesses, he was eliminated. Gingrich has gotten the spotlight for a bit now and he is fading as the closer look reveals real problems. I would not be surprised if Santorum gets a brief opportunity in the spotlight next, although time is short. If Santorum cannot make the sale, then Romney will be the nominee. I am not a Romney fan but even I must admit that he has been through the spotlight and the worst that can be said about him is that he is a politician— that is to say that he took politically expedient positions to win in Massachusetts and now is taking positions to win over conservatives. Whether Romney is a "real conservative" or not may not matter as the House and Senate will likely be conservative and Romney's liberal/statist inclinations will likely be constrained by the political realities.