If there is one thing we have learned about Iraq during the last decade, it is that violence is a direct reflection of the political process or lack thereof. When politics was dysfunctional in 2003-2007, violence skyrocketed. Once the success of the surge kicked in, the political process began to function again and various factions could resolve their disputes with back-room deals rather than with bombs and rockets. Now that U.S. troops have pulled out, the political process is fraying once again. Consider the events of just the past few days.
Vice President Tariq Hashimi, a leading Sunni moderate, is in internal exile in the Kurdish region; he fears if he returns to Baghdad he will be seized by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s security forces and put on trial on what he says are trumped up charges of terrorism; he accuses the Maliki government of torturing his aides to produce phony confessions. At the same time, Maliki is moving to remove Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al Mutlaq, another Sunni, from office for (ironically) accusing Maliki of running a nascent dictatorship. Sunni provinces are openly pushing for more autonomy from Baghdad. The Iraqiya coalition, which represents secular nationalists including many Sunnis, is boycotting parliament. Maliki is threatening to kick them out of the government altogether and effectively rule without Sunni participation.
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