The latest polls out of Iowa confirm two things as we head into the caucuses: Ron Paul has peaked, and his support is now on the downswing. And Rick Santorum is surging, going from single-digits to third place in a matter of days.
If the Des Moines Register survey holds true, Santorum may just be getting started:
The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.
But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.
On its face, this would seem to make Santorum the latest of the “flavor of the month” candidates, following the rapid rise-and-fall of Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann. The difference is that Santorum may have more staying power than the others.
The previous not-Romney’s all looked fine from a distance, but withered under scrutiny. Santorum, in contrast, has grown more impressive as the race has progressed. Yes, he has plenty of his own flaws, and they shouldn’t be glossed over. But so far, his baggage doesn’t seem to be of the fatal sort. There’s no history of adultery, no sexual harassment charges, no problems with articulation, no shoot-from-the-hip attitude. Santorum’s debate performances have been excellent, and he’s shown a notable grasp of foreign policy issues. He also has impeccable social conservative credentials.
There are legitimate questions of electability; those can’t be diminished. Santorum is a bete noir to the left when it comes to social issues, which means that any imaginable glob of mud that can be chucked at him will be chucked – and that could make it very difficult for him to appeal to independent and centrist voters. That’s not to say that there aren’t certain positions conservatives must hold absolutely firm on, even if they enrage the left. But when considering whether to support Santorum, conservatives will need to decide whether opposition to gay marriage and birth control are issues they would risk dying on the hill for.
Santorums for big government pork and spending which doesn't fly with the Tea Party and that means he doesn't stand a chance.
Outside Iowa, Santorum, like Paul, will correctly be perceived as strictly a fringe candidate. He lost his Senate re-election bid by a whopping 18 points, and isn't just ''bete noir to the left'' on social issues. He has taken extreme positions and often uses language repellat to moderate Independents without whom a Republican can't be elected. n In New Hampshire, Romney's likely strongest challenger will be Huntsman and after his defeat, and a probable bump in the road in South Carolina, Romney should be able to cruise to the nomination. I hope so, he's the only Republican with a chance to defeat Obama, please God.
Let's face it, the Iowan Republicans are just not very smart about politics. Santorum has zero chance of beating Obama. Not because he is very conservative, but because he has no charisma and is unlikeable on a certain level. His huge loss in PA should have proven this to anyone who cares.
"Ron Paul has peaked, and his support is now on the downswing. " n nActually, that's not true. PPP found Paul at 19% on Saturday, but surging to 21% on Saturday, for first place. Their sample size was very large.
A Santorum win in Iowa will go a long way to erasing the stigma of his 2006 loss of the Senate Race in PA.
You've just read one of Commentary's first pitches for a Romney-Santorum ticket. Alana Goodman's sidekicks, Peter Wehner and Jonathan Tobin, will chime in later this week, after the Iowa caucuses. Faux conservative, Jennifer Rubin, wannabe "elite" and aspiring Republican establishment power broker, will join the chorus shortly thereafter. n nSantorum, you ask? Why Santorum? Santorum may not be much, I'll grant you, but he's East Coast n nWhy not Michelle Bachman? Well, to begin with, Bachman is a knuckle-dragging Evangelical Christian. Not only that, she's from one of those horrid Midwestern states. (But she's not from Georgia or Texas, so she might be acceptable as an assistant deputy undersecretary of the Department of Transportation, or some other out-of-sight, back-water job.) n nOh, but this is all too distressing! I'm feeling faint! Be a dear, Mitt, and get my smelling salts. Yes, the bottle of RINO Revive is over there by the picture of Nelson Rockefeller. Do hurry, darling!
"But so far, his baggage doesn’t seem to be of the fatal sort." n nAs usual, a candidate's vicious and false anti-gay rhetoric is just background noise.