Commentary Magazine


Posts For: January 9, 2012

Crime and Incarceration

Both Charles Murray and have commented on a friendly disagreement we had on crime and incarceration. But I thought it important to clarify one point: Charles believes that increased imprisonment has been the necessary (but not the sufficient) condition for 100 percent of the drop in violent crime. His argument goes like this: Without the massive increase in incarceration, the most that other measures could have accomplished for violent crime (not property crime) is to have slowed the increase. We wouldn’t have seen a decrease at all. But he does believe some of the factors I cited (like target hardening, an increase in private security, and better policing techniques), in conjunction with incarceration, helped to account for the magnitude of the decrease in violent crime.

While this doesn’t change the thrust of what either of us wrote, it is a point worth underscoring, which I’m delighted to have done.

Re: Gingrich Group’s Bain Capital Video

King Henri IV of France called his fellow monarch, King James I of England, “the wisest fool in Christendom,” because James’s vast erudition so seldom kept him from doing really dumb things.

King James, meet Newt Gingrich.

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The Gingrich-Santorum Alliance

As the Republican race heads into what may be a fateful week for the contenders, one of the most curious aspects of the competition is the tacit alliance that seems to exist between Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. The two rivals seemed to be very cozy with each other during the debates this past weekend, with Gingrich frequently praising Santorum and the latter gratefully acknowledging the praise. Even more than that, the pair also seems to be working in tandem toward a common goal of knocking down frontrunner Mitt Romney. To note their highly compatible strategies is not to allege anything underhanded or that the two are overtly coordinating their efforts. But there’s no denying that in the last couple of weeks as Gingrich sank from a frontrunner to an also-ran, he began adopting a benevolent tone toward his former House colleague even as his bitterness against Romney was exploding.

So far, one might conclude the attempt to double team Romney is working. Gingrich’s nasty attacks on Romney (revenge for Romney’s takedowns of the former speaker in Iowa) have freed up Santorum to take the high road. But the problem for both Gingrich and Santorum is that if either has any chance to overtake Romney, it will require the other to drop out soon.

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The Moral Complexity of Social Issues

This year’s presidential campaign is a reminder that most members of the press, and almost everyone on the left, view social conservatives through the prism of two issues–abortion and gay marriage. (When possible, the burning national issue of whether states should be allowed to ban contraception is thrown in as well, as we saw during this weekend’s debates.) The narrative that’s been affixed is a simple one: those who oppose the right to an abortion and gay marriage are almost by definition unenlightened and/or bigoted. It doesn’t matter that most people who are traditionalists are none of these things. Nor does it matter that there are nuances and shades of gray in most people’s views on both issues (mine included). The subtleties get thrown aside in an effort to put people in neat little boxes. There are the Children of Light and the Children of Darkness.

This has important implications for our national life, including this one: more than ever before the champions of cultural conservatism need to be people who embody grace, who can articulate the moral good in a way that is non-censorious, and who can speak to these issues with honesty, fairness, and sympathy. They have to possess the ability to place social concerns in a larger frame. And importantly, they – indeed, all of us – need to resist the temptation to speak as if these issues are morally and socially uncomplicated. There is a good deal more ambiguity on these matters than either party platform allows for.

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A Powerful Case for Force Against Iran

The Obama administration seems to be enjoying some success in getting European states to embargo Iranian oil. That’s good news. The question, however, is whether this latest round of sanctions will convince Iran to do what previous sanctions have not done–i.e., convince it to forego nuclear weapons. I hope so, but hope isn’t a policy, and there is good reason for skepticism.

In the first place, Iran will be able to sell its oil in Asia, to China, India, and even to U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea. It may lose some money in the bargain, but it seems doubtful the loss of some oil revenue will be enough to dissuade the clerical regime from what it seems to view as a national, indeed religious, obligation. The mullahs know the Iranian Revolution will be far more secure–less prone to attack, more able to attack with impunity–if it has nukes, and past conduct indicates that it will not stop until it has them.

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Is Sarah Palin Floating a Trial Balloon for Gingrich Endorsement?

Todd Palin isn’t particularly vocal about his politics, so his endorsement of Newt Gingrich today has already prompted speculation that his wife may follow:

Todd Palin notes that he hasn’t spoken with the Gingrich campaign at all, and his wife still hasn’t decided whom to support. The Daily Caller’s Matt Lewis thus seizes on the one glimmer of importance in all this: “Obvious question: Will Sarah Palin follow Todd?” he asks. Sarah Palin, after all, does maintain something of a constituency these days so her endorsement (which might finally, finally end the “will she run rumors”) might give Gingrich’s sad campaign some oomph.

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Gingrich Group’s Bain Capital Video

The pro-Gingrich Super PAC “Winning the Future” has released a teaser trailer of its lengthy attack video on Mitt Romney’s record at Bain Capital, which Jonathan wrote about earlier today. After watching the preview, it’s hard to believe a conservative group made this film, because it echoes so many of the class warfare tropes that have been coming from the Obama administration and Occupy Wall Street recently. I can’t imagine many conservative South Carolina primary voters sitting through 27 minutes of this demonize-the-rich rhetoric, but it will definitely provide the Obama campaign with plenty of free attack fodder if Romney becomes the nominee:

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Echoing Bain Attacks Could Backfire

On Friday, Joseph Rago warned in the Wall Street Journal that Newt Gingrich’s planned attacks on Mitt Romney suggested that the former Speaker’s temper might lead him to commit a strategic blunder:

Mr. Romney’s political ruthlessness seems to inspire this kind of personal loathing among his opponents, John McCain and Mike Huckabee being notable exemplars from 2008. But the larger political question is how, exactly, Mr. Gingrich will choose to conduct his war. As Speaker, he was volatile and erratic, claiming upon his resignation in 1998 that he couldn’t tolerate “mindless cannibalism” in the Republican caucus. The irony is that a more measured and restrained case would likely be most effective against Mr. Romney — painstakingly highlighting his record, as Mr. Gingrich’s rivals did in Iowa — but that isn’t always Mr. Gingrich’s M.O.

Rago looks prescient, as Gingrich has decided to attack Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital, in the process painting both Romney and the process of creative destruction as moral failures. Yet Gingrich is doing more than just echoing the drum circles of Occupy Wall Street. He has apparently convinced the other GOP candidates to follow down this path.

Mark Halperin quotes Jon Huntsman–playing off this awkward verbal miscue from Romney–as saying that “Governor Romney enjoys firing people; I enjoy creating jobs.” Rick Perry, for his part, offered: “I have no doubt that Mitt Romney was worried about pink slips — whether he was going to have enough of them to hand out.”

The urge to pile on a faltering frontrunner is irresistible, surely. But as Jonathan noted earlier, any Republican nominee will be painted by Obama as these candidates are painting Romney now. The desire to resist being hammered by their own words in a general election alone should be enough to convince these candidates to avoid attacking Romney from the left.

But it also won’t work; conservatives are already groaning at having to defend Romney from his rivals. In Gingrich’s case, it’s more understandable, since Romney blitzed the Iowa airwaves with attacks on Gingrich’s record. But both Huntsman and especially Perry have records to run on that contrast in their favor with Romney’s. Perry, in fact, jumped into the lead as soon as he announced his candidacy in part because he has a record as governor that would make any Republican national office seeker green with envy. And Perry’s campaign manifesto was the most libertarian of anyone outside Ron Paul.

Perry’s record remains his best chance at drawing back in the voters he lost earlier to candidates who are no longer in the race. Huntsman, meanwhile, has been trying to fend off accusations he’s too liberal for the GOP base. Neither will be well served going forward by joining in Gingrich’s fit of pique. It isn’t presidential, and they’ve got better things to talk about.

Romney’s Firing Problem

Politics is a gotcha business, so Mitt Romney has no one to blame but himself if we spend the next 10 months seeing political ads with the GOP frontrunner’s comment that “I like being able to fire people who provide services to me.” When taken out of context, the quote seems to show the wealthy Romney as an insufferable plutocrat who takes pleasure in handing out pink slips to the downtrodden. One can imagine ads depicting long lines of fired valets, maids, and footmen who have displeased Mitt.

Of course, he wasn’t talking about firing the guy who shines his shoes or presses his pants but giving every American the option to fire their insurance provider. All he was trying to do was to point out that rather than be forced to accept a government plan, most Americans would prefer to choose their own insurance and hold those service providers accountable. Romney is absolutely right about this, but he must expect that his words will be twisted to portray him as a real-life version of Charles Montgomery Burns, Homer’s boss at the nuclear power plant on “The Simpsons.” Like his cringe-inducing offer to bet Rick Perry $10,000 during one of the debates, Romney should know any words that pass his lips that could buttress claims he is an out-of-touch rich guy will be used against him.

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Romney Continues New Hampshire Slide

The question isn’t whether Mitt Romney will win tomorrow’s primary race in New Hampshire – he almost certainly will – but whether his margin of victory will be wide enough to meet the enormous expectations. His 10-point drop in the Suffolk University tracking poll over the past week isn’t a good sign:

Romney dropped 2 more percentage points overnight but still holds a 13-point lead at 33 percent. The former Massachusetts governor has dropped a full 10 points from five days ago, when he had 43 percent of likely GOP voters.

Romney is followed by Paul (20 percent), Jon Huntsman (13 percent), Newt Gingrich (11 percent) and Rick Santorum (10 percent), while Rick Perry and Buddy Roemer combined for 3 percent with 12 percent undecided.

Could the debates over the weekend have hurt Romney more than initially expected? On Friday, the Suffolk tracking poll had Romney at 40 percent, which means most of the 10-point drop happened over the weekend.

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Will Turkey Demand an Apology From Iran?

Iranian border guards reportedly shot two Turks crossing illegally into Iran from Turkey. Perhaps this can be the moment of truth for Turkey and its prime minister. When Israeli forces warned and then fired on Turks attempting to run Israel’s lawful blockade of Gaza, Turkish authorities demanded apologies, compensation, and a complete end to the blockade of Hamas’ administration in Gaza. Yet when Iranians kill Turks without warning, Turkey’s response is silence. Perhaps Turkey’s problem isn’t the protection of its citizens after all.

What Is Huntsman’s Next Move?

Jon Huntsman’s closing argument in New Hampshire has been a one-word mantra: independent. He has stressed both his independence from Republican orthodoxy and his oft-repeated appeal to independents. He will no doubt be touting Gallup’s announcement this morning that a record number of voters now identify as independents.

And though his main rival in New Hampshire is the frontrunner Mitt Romney, his attempts to contrast himself with the former Massachusetts governor ironically leave him making the same argument Romney has all along: he can beat Barack Obama. The good news: in CNN’s last poll before the Iowa caucuses, Romney cleaned up on the electability question, then won the caucuses. The bad news: to Iowans, Huntsman barely registered on the electability question.

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Ron Paul Now Taking Zionism Advice From Neturei Karta

Rabbi Yisroel Dovid Weiss, of the anti-Zionist haredi group Neturei Karta, has buddied up to some of the top anti-Semitic scumbags of our time. He’s been photographed at Holocaust revisionist conferences, burning Israeli flags, and warmly embracing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

And yesterday, he actually showed up at a campaign event for Ron Paul.

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Dem Intentions Don’t Justify Smears

The attacks on Mitt Romney’s business career from his Republican opponents are getting nastier. The knives are out as supporters of Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry are trying to label Romney as a “predatory capitalist” who looted companies and put people out of work while making millions at Bain Capital. The spectacle of right-wingers blasting a venture capitalist they also deem insufficiently conservative as unfit for office because he oppressed the working class in the service of wealthy investors is comical if not ironic.

The charges are largely false. Romney’s efforts to build new companies and resuscitate dying ones created more jobs than were lost. But conservatives justify these absurd attacks because they claim the Democrats will say even worse about Romney this fall, rendering him unelectable. Yet the reasoning here is faulty. It is true President Obama’s campaign staff will do their best to demagogue Romney on his business record. But do Republicans think this issue, which allows Romney to highlight his success as a job creator and expertise on an economy that Obama can’t match, makes the GOP any more vulnerable this fall than the even more glaring weaknesses Gingrich, Rick Santorum or Perry possess?

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Obama to Share Secrets with Russia

While Michael McFaul’s confirmation to be U.S. ambassador to Russia has now passed the Senate, the reason for the holdup remains: The Obama administration appears intent to provide Russia with missile defense secrets. As the Washington Times’ Bill Gertz notes:

In the president’s signing statement issued Saturday in passing into law the fiscal 2012 defense authorization bill, Mr. Obama said restrictions aimed at protecting top-secret technical data on U.S. Standard Missile-3 velocity burnout parameters might impinge on his constitutional foreign policy authority. As first disclosed in this space several weeks ago, U.S. officials are planning to provide Moscow with the SM-3 data, despite reservations from security officials who say that doing so could compromise the effectiveness of the system by allowing Russian weapons technicians to counter the missile. The weapons are considered some of the most effective high-speed interceptors in the U.S. missile defense arsenal.

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The State Department’s Wishful Thinking

What do the State Department and the Arab League have in common? Both believe in wishful thinking. But while the Arab League version is farce, the State Department version could well end in tragedy.

Last week, the Arab League asked Hamas leader Khaled Meshal to convince Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to stop slaughtering Syrian protesters. After all, an organization that kneecapped opponents and threw them off rooftops during its 2007 takeover of Gaza is the obvious choice to convince Assad to treat his own opponents more gently. Were it not already amply clear that League efforts to stop the violence in Syria are mere lip service, this might be tragic; as it is, one can only laugh.

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Evil Dictators Strengthen Ties

President Obama entered office believing there was no U.S. adversary whom he could not bring around with diplomacy. He offered an olive branch to Iran, shook hands with Muammar Qaddafi, and sought to soften Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad by lauding him as a reformer. Toward Russia, he initiated a ‘reset’ policy, meant to erase the Bush legacy and begin with a blank slate.

Too often, presidents enter the Oval Office convinced the fault for diplomacy’s failure lays more with their predecessor than with the adversary. Just as did the Iranians, Libyans, Syrians, and North Koreans, when Obama gave ground, Putin took it. Vladimir Putin played Obama like a fiddle.

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