According to a new Gallup Survey, 2011 marks the third straight year that conservatives have outnumbered moderates, after more than a decade in which moderates mainly tied or outnumbered conservatives. The specific findings were these: 40 percent of Americans continue to describe their views as conservative, 35 percent as moderate, and 21 percent as liberal.
Some additional findings:
The percentage of Americans calling themselves “moderate” has gradually diminished in the U.S. since it was 43 percent in 1992.
The majority of Republicans say they are either very conservative or conservative, but the total proportion of conservatives grew 10 percentage points between 2002 and 2010, from 62 percent to 72 percent.
The percentage of Republicans who say they are moderates fell from 31 percent to 23 percent.
Relatively few Republicans say they are liberal — just 4 percent in 2011. Republicans’ ideology largely held at the 2010 levels in 2011.
As for Democrats, as recently as 2002, the solid plurality of Democrats were “moderate,” while smaller, but nearly equal, percentages called themselves “liberal” and “conservative.” From 2003 through 2007, however, the liberal share of the party grew to 38 percent, while the “moderate” and “conservative” percentages each diminished somewhat. As a result, from 2007 through 2011, the party has consisted of equal percentages of moderates and liberals, at about 38 percent to 40 percent, while about 20 percent have called themselves conservative. (The current figures are 39 percent liberal, 38 percent moderate, and 20 percent conservative.)
As for independents, who make up the largest political group in the country, they have been steadier ideologically than either major party group during the last decade. However, since 2008, the proportion describing themselves as moderate has declined slightly, from 46 percent to 41 percent, and the proportion who are conservative has increased slightly, from 30 percent to 35 percent.
Currently, the largest segment of independents (41 percent) describe their views as moderate, while significantly more identify as conservative than as liberal (35 percent vs. 20 percent).
The bottom line for Gallup? “In recent years, conservatives have become the single largest [ideological] group, consistently outnumbering moderates since 2009 and outnumbering liberals by 2-to-1.”
All of which underscores the fact that conservatism, during the age of Obama, remains the dominant ideology in America.
It turns out there’s nothing like a liberal president to help the standing of conservatism.
If this is true, then why is Obama still the odds on favorite to win a second term? Something does not add up. Most likely these people like to say they are conservative, but they really are not. People lie to pollsters all the time.
To BDZ, if 56% of Americans don't call themselves "Conservatives" and 4% are not accounted for in the survey…that's why Obama is still a favorite to win a second term, G-d help us.
@ birdmen: even so, if you figure that the GOP candidate gets 90% of the GOP vote which is overwhelmingly conservative, and further gets all of the conservative Independent voters and then you split the "moderate" Independents with Obama, that should still leave the GOP with a clear majority given that GOP registration now outnumbers Democrat registrations by something like 37% to 33% (this is actual registration versus the "self identification" given by Gallup). n nActually it is better than that. n nIn other words, since the GOP makes up roughly 37% of the registered voting population, if we assume that the GOP gets all GOP voters, we simply have to look at how much of the Indy vote the GOP guy can expect. According to Gallup, 40% self identify as Indies. Of that population, 35% identify as conservative and another 40% as moderate. If the GOP get all of the 35% of conservative Indies plus half of the moderate indies, this amounts to just over half of the entire, Indy voting population. This translates to something like 57% of all voters. n nThis is of course way too optimistic given that: 1) not every GOP voter or conservative Indy will vote for the GOP candidate and; 2) assuming a 50-50 split among moderate Indies may be too much. n nStill, if you grant Obama the same assumptions— he gets 100% of the Dem vote and 100% of the liberal Indies and 50% of the moderate Indies– Obama can't get past 46.2% under the most optimistic scenario. n nSo Obama is going to have to somehow either convince a ton of conservatives to vote for him or convince a ton of conservatives to stay home and not vote at all. Afterall, Obama would have to get 100% of the Democrat vote and 100% of the moderate and liberal Indy vote just to match the more cautious 57% we awarded to the GOP. Obama is not going to get 100% of either group, so the only ones left are conservatives. He must target the conservative vote somehow. (This, of course, does not take into account the electoral college and how conservative-moderate-liberal populations shake out in each of the battleground states).
Whatever the outcome of this particular election, it really is puzzling that small government conservatism retains so much theoretical appeal – and yet the government actually grows apace, no matter who gets elected.