President Obama has been assuring the public since before he was elected in 2008 that he would never allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. But the question facing the White House this year is whether a failure to make good on that pledge will be more damaging to his chances of re-election than a spike in oil prices.
That’s the dilemma Obama has been grappling with since Congress passed a bill over his objections last month that mandated a complete ban on all transactions with entities that did business with Iran’s Central Bank. Sanctions on the bank are the lever by which an international embargo on the sale of Iranian oil is made possible. But as American diplomats are laying the groundwork for such an embargo, the administration is also sending out signals that indicate it is less than enthusiastic about dealing with the possible economic fallout of the one tactic that might stop the Iranians short of war.
According to the New York Times, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has already told Congress he thought the bank measure interfered with the administration’s “carefully phased” approach to sanctions on Iran. Having demanded and gotten a waiver inserted into the bill that would allow the president to put off the sanctions indefinitely, there is now a very real chance Obama will decide the sanctions are not worth the trouble. With the president’s favorability numbers already low, the White House may believe the impact of a major increase in the price of gas and the consequent economic distress may be more politically toxic than actions that can be interpreted as acquiescing to a nuclear Iran.
But with diplomacy offering no hope and since the administration has made it clear it will not support the use of force against Iran and opposes Israel doing so on its own, punting on an oil embargo will be seen as an indication Obama is not prepared to do anything to stop Tehran.
Doing so will open the president up to fierce criticism from Republicans. Just as troubling is that it will undermine his standing with a key component of his electoral coalition: American Jews. Obama may be able to hold onto the loyalty of a group that is for the most part comprised of Democratic partisans, even though he has often quarreled with Israel’s government. But for Obama to refuse to use the one economic lever he has at his disposal to avert an existential threat to Israel as well as to the entire Middle East would certainly cost him heavily among Jews as well as non-Jewish friends of Israel.
Essentially, Obama has until late June to decide whether or not to use the waiver Congress gave him. While we must expect the administration would attempt to explain its use as part of a long-range strategy against Iran, the consequences of doing so could be greater than just some lost votes. If the United States chooses not to push tough sanctions against Iran, then Israel may decide it must take matters into its own hands. Since the president has acted at times as if he was more afraid of Israel attacking Iranian nuclear sites than he was of the ayatollah gaining control of a bomb, that too may figure into his decision. Even worse for the president is the possibility that further delay will result in an Iranian announcement of nuclear capability on Obama’s watch.
But if Obama is left with no good choices about Iran he has only himself to blame. Having wasted his first three years in office on a foolish policy of “engagement” with and feckless diplomatic initiatives that accomplished nothing, the fact that he has painted himself into a corner on this issue during an election year is entirely his own doing.
When you listen to Democrats, especially in 2008 (but even now), their Bush hatred has driven them to, for instance, Obama thinking everyone in the world hates America because of Bush and they will all love him. So, I get how hate has driven their ideology and that they had to try … but there is no way Democrats can ever defend not recognizing failure after the first attempts. Obama's negotiation policy in all Middle East matters reminds me of Bill Cosby comedy about give the screaming baby whatever she wants to shut her up (and that's not negotiation). Now there are articles China and Russia say any attack on Iran will be the start of WW III. What a mess this President has caused. Someone in the administration must come to see that the sanctions have to be tried!
The public will punish Obama if/when things go bad. Higher gas prices is bad. Obama won't get any points by arguing that the bad of high gas prices is only temporary or that it is better than the bad of Iran (potentially) getting nukes (the public has never warmed to the idea of suffering now to forestall some potential problem later, we only react after we get kicked in the teeth). n nOf course, Iran getting nukes will be bad and some number of voters will hold that against him. n nBut that likely won't be confirmed before November. n nSo I expect nothing from Obama.
Sure he can do nothing. American jews are overwhelmingly liberal and aobut 1/2 the community pretty much Jewish in name only or Jewish/doctrinally progressive. America genreally is war weary. Israel remains the wild card but may prefer to incrementally ramp up the covert war on the ground until there's indicatoin a device is being constructed.
Zionist neocons wanting American and Iranian kids to die for the benefit of Israel, a place they pine for but don't want to live in, safe behind their clicking keyboards. Most American Jews oppose this mad adventure, but they don't have millions and they don't control the organizations. n nIsn't the plan now to boycott, harass, and murder Iran and Iranians, until they lash out, or there is some manufactured incident to justify an attack?
You are a revolting anti-Semite.
Gramps, Max is saying the exact opposite of what you claim. Much less the imaginary army of Zionist neocon led Jewish organizations. Max hasn't called for America to hit Iran but for an oil embargo as an alternative, not a pretext, for military conflict. Also, it was the Gulf Emirates not Israel who directly pleaded with Washington to take military action against Shia Tehran. Oman ain't Zionist. n nThere are not millions of Jews who fear Zionist Israel just like you do. On the other hand, no, the major Jewish organizations aren't evil and they aren't controlled by "millions" (George Soros is the richest Jew in the universe and whatever altar he bows to isn't pro-Israel) and they aren't controlled by "Zionist neocons" or calling for a war: not AIPAC, not the President's Conference not the American Jewish Congress, none that I am aware of. And, as noted, not even Max here–who proposes sanctions under the assumption they will deter not cause a war. n nIran is working on nukes. The IAEA confirms Iran is in violation of its non-proliferation obligations. Tehran has openly promised to liquidate Jewish kids in Israel along with their moms, their dads, their houseplants. Obama is sponsoring what sanction there are not the Elders of Zion. There is no mad adventure. Take this to the bank, you have my word: America will defer any decision until a nuclear device is tested or confirmed under manufacture. Israel has its own ground game going and is in no hurry to launch a preemptive campaign against a still partially undefined weapons infrastructure. n nNo, there is no false-flag plan, no conspiracy, no Tonkin Bay pretext sought. The whole point of the Israeli ground game is the exact opposite, to sow confusion and misdirection in the Iranian program through attrition and stressing out the nodal points of their networks. And, yes, while information gained can be the predicate for a variety of strategies of escalated malware/malwar, it is done on your timetable, by stealth and surprise, not by provoking a premature confrontation with your opponent in a whipped up degree of readiness. And there never has been a majority consensus in Israeli cabinets or top security echelons to launch a unilateral preemptive Israeli conventional strike. Anti-Zionists of all shades have been obsessing about an Israeli attack that is going to happen today, tomorrow, next Tuesday for over ten years now and it never happens. n nTen years of anti-Zionist neocon chicken little. n nThe sky has yet to fall.
@Besht–Let's see Tobin say he doesn't favor a strike on Iran. That's exactly what people like he and Jennifer Rubin want–goyish dollars and blood for the Zionist entity. Some in Israel, such as the ex-head of the Mossad, do say they don't want Israel to attack Iran. I don't hear this from the American neocons, whose arrogance is astonishing. Look at the creepy scribbler Tobin's headline, as if he has the right to dictate what the President of the United States can "get away with."
Jews, even, shudder grasp, Zionists, even, cooties, neocons, even a fan of Romney like Jennifer Rubin. are not vampiric bloodsuckers craving gentile money and blood, They are not knowing traitors delighting in evil. And, by the way, Israel is actually a state with a name. And that name was hardwon by Patriarch Jacob and deserves some minimal respect imo. Israel receives less dollars than, say, the collective total of Egypt, the PA, and Turkey, AFIK, not to mention the aid given to potential hostiles such as Afghanistan and Pakistan,
Commentary can scribble scribble scribble. Obama isn't going to war if he can possibly help it. It isn't happening this election cycle barring a major miscalcuation. It isn't on the menu and Israel is under direct pressure to sit on their hands. Israel always has a full plate and Iran for now is not something they must deal with right now today. n nBut… n nIran's leadership has likened Israel to a literal place of filth and literal disease, The ostracization of Israel–"Zionist entity" is mean enough but the Iranian official media and leaderships has declared repeatedly that Israel is literally a cancer, a tumor, that must be extirpated for the health of the world. n nIrans declared policy towards Israel is not the imaginary excuse of Zionists to shed gentile blood and waste gentile money. n nIf only. n nIn any event, Obama will not be told to do by the writers of Commentary. But israel can be spat on, condemned, ostracized or whatever–but if Iran gets nukes than it will not accept the end a nation.