As Florida voters went to the polls on Tuesday, those journalists trolling for evidence of a shift in the Jewish vote seized on a slight decline in Jewish turnout in the Republican primary as proof the GOP hadn’t made much progress. Those who did so were mistaken, because the sample size was so small and the willingness of Jews to change registration to vote in a primary isn’t indicative of how they’ll actually vote in November. But a new Pew Research Poll released this afternoon about party affiliation provides clear proof that a long-awaited shift among Jews away from the Democrats may have begun.
Republicans have gained nine percentage points in the last three years among Jewish voters polled about whether they identify with or lean toward either party. In 2008, Democrats led among Jews by a hefty 72 to 20 percent. In 2011, the margin was 65 to 29 percent. While that still gives the Democrats a commanding lead among Jews, the gain for the GOP could be enough to significantly affect a few states where the voting may be close this fall. Just as importantly, while some of this could be attributed to general dissatisfaction with the administration’s record on the economy, it will be difficult for Democrats to argue it is not also at least partly the fault of President Obama’s quarrels with Israel during the last three years.
Because Republicans have gained only four points nationwide, it isn’t possible to argue the Democratic loss among the Jews is nothing special. Israel is the likely reason for the Democrats’ Jewish problem, because the GOP gain among Jews is higher than among any other religious group except for Mormons. The Mormon figures are certainly due to anticipation that Mitt Romney might become the first Latter-day Saint to ascend to the White House. But there is no reason to think Jews are unhappier than Catholics, Protestants, atheists or agnostics about the economy. The friction between Obama and Israel about the status of Jerusalem, the 1967 boundaries and settlements is the only possible explanation for Jews to be more disillusioned with the Democrats than other voters.
Many Democrats have spent the last two years publicly denying Obama would suffer politically for his slights of Israel and its leaders, but the White House’s Jewish charm offensive in the last several months belied this optimism. Obama’s exaggerated claim he has done more to enhance Israel’s security than any president in history is aimed at persuading Jews to forget his administration came into office bragging about how distancing itself from Israel was a change from George W. Bush’s policies. The nasty spats with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that followed have clearly taken their toll on his party’s ability to count on the loyalty of many Jews.
While this shift toward the GOP is significant, it is not a harbinger of a full realignment of Jewish voters. Most Jews are ideologically liberal and partisan Democrats and unlikely to vote Republican under almost any circumstance. Liberal Jews remain far more afraid of conservative Christians than Hamas terrorists and will always judge any Democratic candidate, even one like Obama who has demonstrated little real affinity for Israel, on a curve.
But that doesn’t mean Jewish swing voters don’t exist. It may not be realistic for Republicans to expect they will match Ronald Reagan’s record 39 percent of the vote in 1980 this year. But in Barack Obama they have a Democratic opponent who, like Jimmy Carter 32 years ago, is distinctly vulnerable on the issue of Israel. Were a Republican candidate able to gain the same nine points over the 22 percent share of the Jewish vote John McCain got in 2008 that could be enough to make the difference in a few crucial battleground states. If the two parties are closely matched in Pennsylvania and New Jersey but especially in Florida, a large Jewish turnout for the GOP could sink the president’s hopes for re-election.
Though Democrats already knew they were in trouble in the Jewish community, this poll will undoubtedly lead them to redouble their efforts this year to spin Obama’s record on Israel and to do everything they can to scare Jews away from the GOP. It will also give Republicans good reason to fight harder for the votes of a group that remains, after African-Americans, the second most Democratic sector of the electorate.
Honestly I don't really think its about the voting as much as it is about the fundraising. Huge democratic bundlers happen to be Jewish and quite frankly they are not raising the money Obama needs for the upcoming election. Some of his biggest Jewish donors have opted out of the election altogether. Latest info is that the DNC is way behind the RNC in fundraising. That is the real issue, not the votes of less than 2% of the American electorate. n nBesides the Jewish vote is predominately in NY, Cal and FLA. Two of those three states are expected to go blue no matter what. The dems will not lose that many Jews to make a difference in NY or Cal. It is FLA that scares them. Fla will decide the election as always and right now, Obama is in deep trouble there.
I think you're precisely right. it's the Jewish money Obama is most worried about, not our votes. you're also right about Florida. I hope that between this and Rubio being the VP (I pray) the GOP can take Florida, and thus, the election.
10 to 1 that an Obama loss in Nov will be blamed, in many circles (inner city ones in particular, especially Jeremiah Wright's crowd), on the Jews, his legion of Jewish advisers, assistants, enablers and cheerleaders (Wasserman-Shultz the poster child) notwithstanding. n n
I’m a Jew who voted for McCain in 2008, and will vote for any Republican except Ron Paul in November. A lifelong Democrat, I held my nose in 2004 when voting for Kerry, have become deeply distrustful of the party’s intentions toward Israel. Today, I am still registered as a Democrat. I just never bothered to change my party affiliation. It means nothing.
Diane, n nyour story and mine are almost exactly the same, except that I did bother to change my party affiliation. I even became a Republican precinct delegate for the 2010 elections. (you can do it too, girl!) and I couldn't agree with you more about the very dangerous "Iran Paul" as I call him. n nanyone who cares about Israel–Jewish, evangelical, or just right-thinking–should not vote for Obama. I tell my Jewish friends and relatives "If you simply can't bring yourself to vote for a Republican, then vote for the Green Party or someone else. but don't cast your vote for this guy, please." n n n n
Registered Jewish Republican – voting for Gingrich or Romney (who ever wins Republican nomination), but will never vote for the wanna-be new executioner to the next Jewish Holocaust led by IRAN and sanctioned by RON PAUL. r nr nObama is a thief, he has stolen the American Dream and lapped up Arab Oil money like a trained dog all the while his actions/inactions is a gift to IRAN, a gift of time while they acquire Nuclear Weapons to wipe Israel (and the neighboring Palestinians) off the map.r nr nA vote for Obama or Ron Paul is nothing more then a vote to enable them as executioners in the next Jewish Holocaust led by IRAN!
Obama will pull in a ton of money. He has friends in Wall Street, Hollywood, all over. Jimmy we've heard all this before. Palestinians have been trying to kill jews for the crime of breathing Holy Arab Air for decades. So far they haven't succeeded. The claim that Israel is an apartheid country has about the same cogency as claiming that my kitties speak Russian with a lisp. I mean, yes, the words parse but they don't refer to anything.
eh, don't bother. trolls like "Jimmy" look for pro-Israel sites so they can come on and say inflammatory things to get a rise out of us. they don't want a discussion, and they don't care about facts. when they discover we don't really care what they're spewing, they usually go away.
Some of them won't go away. Silence doesn't always work. It isn't just getting a rise. Its pissing on jews.
If Jewish Americans aren't worried about what Obama's stance toward Israel will be in a second term, they are nuts. nThis is the same guy who once referred to Israel as "a constant sore." He'll want to "solve" that problem for his precious legacy and for the applause of "enlightened world opinion." nSCARY.
Well, maybe. But I have a feeling that even if the LA Times came clean and released the Khalidi tape to national television, it wouldn't move the dial much among Jewish voters.
In FL, seniors are scared of Obamacare policies that threaten their lives, and a lot of them are Jewish.
Many people don't take the time to go to city hall to change their party affiliation. I also delayed making the change. However, this minor inconvenience was resolved when I went to renew my driver's license last December. There was an option to declare my party affiliation. The registry of motor vehcles forwarded the change of party affiliation to the town hall, problem solved.
see Chapter 10 The Anachronistic American Jewish Affection for the Left in my book The Left is Seldom Right. The book consists of 25 case studies of major domestic and international crises, wars, alliances, conflicts, issues, elections, demonization of Israel, and the threat of Jihad that have been the subject of considerable media opinion and comment and most often by the use of misleading Left-Right terminology.
Lucy Davidowitz said it correctly more than 20 years ago in her book What is the Use of Jewish History ? – It is more applicable than ever….If Jews need to know their own interests as well as the interests of others, they also need to know the art of politics as well as the Books of the Torah. They need, in short, to live in this world, not in the world of the politically utopian or the relgiously messianic.
I am speaking as a mostly conservative, spiritual but not religious Christian here. It is my sense that left-wingers and many, many liberals in America actually hate Jews and Israel. When it comes to Jews they are wolves sometimes dressed up in sheeps clothing. Left-wingers and their liberal dumba– allies would throw Israel to Arab masses/Iranian regime wolves in a heartbeat if they thought they could. Is that not obvious to everybody by now? My God, if Jews here in America would move right politically it would be of such enormous benefit in the fight to save Western Civilization from traitors and barbarians.
FYNQ