The entrance polls for today’s Nevada caucus appear to show what everyone anticipated: a landslide for Mitt Romney. He won almost every conceivable demographic group including those that are not considered his strengths. Conservatives, Tea Partiers and evangelicals — groups where his support is generally weak — all gave Romney huge pluralities if not outright majorities in Nevada. Part of the reason for this is the large Mormon vote in Nevada. Mormons are only about seven percent of the population there, but entrance polls showed them making up 26 percent of today’s Republican electorate. With 91 percent of Mormons backing their co-religionist Romney, that inflated his support among right-wingers who might trend more toward Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum in other states.
Yet while Mormon support can account for the increased number of avowed conservatives and Tea Partiers who said they were for Romney, that doesn’t account for his getting a whopping 48 percent of evangelical voters in Nevada, with Gingrich receiving only 27 percent and Santorum a paltry 11 percent.
While the challengers appear to have conceded Nevada in advance and spent little time or money there, Romney’s strength across the board is encouraging for him. For Gingrich, the only real concern in Nevada is avoiding falling behind Ron Paul in the battle for second place. While the former speaker has low expectations for all of the February primaries and caucuses, a third place finish will make his task of convincing Republicans that he is a viable alternative to Romney much more difficult.
Demographically, count this down–Mormons are about 7% of NV…and 95% are conservative GOPers. so, there was a 4x normal support from this group. Good turnout. Or is it just that there was a 75% decreased turnout among other religious groups? n nOr do mormons just vote more? n nThe storyline of the media is that mormons are voting for mitt. fine. Is there another storyline that catholics are not voting for Rick and Newt? n n
Hmmm. If most of Romeny's vote is due to Mormons "statcking" the result, what happens if you weight for a normal distribution? If the above is true, and Mormons-voting-for-Romney were 24% of the total vote, the non-Mormons-voting-for-Romney were only about 16% of the total vote, and about half of Romney's total is purely from extra Mormon voters.
Can Mitt Romney become the GOP's nominee? Probably. Can Mitt Romney defeat Barak Obama? The numbers are not encouraging. n n"In a potential Election 2012 matchup, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is at 45% while President Obama earns 44%. This is the first time in any poll that Santorum has led the president … Only one GOP candidate has led the president in more than one poll and that’s former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. At the moment, however, he is behind. The latest daily numbers show President Obama at 47% and Romney at 43%." n nSource: Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, 4 February 2012
"This is the first time Rick Santorum has led. . . ." Romney has led many times and recently. Rick Santorum's RCP average is still way down.
The truth is that in states where people actually live around Mormons, they aren't afraid of the BoogeyMormon. nEvangelicals in Nevada, for example went more for Romney than other people did. n nThe day Religious Mormons support a Mormon serial adulterer with a history of ethical violations and more baggage than the lost baggage department at Southwest Airlines, I will buy the idea that Mormons are giving an unfair advantage to their own.