I wrote earlier today about the human rights violations that have become routine under the regime of President Obama’s buddy Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In addition to making hypocrites out of his friends in Washington, this also raises important questions about Turkey’s standing to criticize Israel for measures intended to defend their citizens against terrorist attack. Under Erdoğan, Turkey hasn’t merely abandoned its longstanding strategic alliance with Israel; it has also become Hamas’s new chief sponsor.
The president may consider his friend’s embrace of an Islamist terror group to be of no importance, but Turkey’s rogue diplomacy is having a ripple effect on stability in the eastern Mediterranean. As historian Benny Morris points out in an article in The National Interest published last week, Israel isn’t taking Turkey’s betrayal sitting down.
In response to the Turkish embrace of Hamas, Israel has reached out to both Greece and Cyprus. Greece was among the most hostile countries in Europe to Israel but has now achieved a better understanding of the Jewish state since the Turks have become its foe. To seal this new understanding, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning a visit to Cyprus next month.
Israel has long tried to establish alliances with states on the periphery of the region to balance the solid wall of hate from Arab and Muslim states. As Morris notes, that has led to good relations with newly independent Southern Sudan, a mostly Christian country.
Turkey is locked in a decades-long standoff with the Greeks in Cyprus. But now the Greek Cypriots in Nicosia are seriously considering an Israeli request to station military aircraft on their territory. As Morris writes, the Cypriots, who have faced intimidation from a superior Turkish military, are looking to Israel for help:
The Cypriots are apparently interested in Israeli assistance in monitoring the air space above the gas fields and drilling equipment and in augmenting their (small) navy’s patrols in their economic waters. [Israeli Defense Minister Ehud] Barak has asked the Cypriots to allow Israel to station aircraft in the Papandreu Air Base outside the town of Paphos in western Cyprus. And two months ago, the Israeli and Cypriot air forces held a joint exercise.
Turkey, which once prided itself on trying to be part of Europe, now aspires to a new caliphate. They may have thought its erstwhile ally had nowhere to turn once they were dumped. But by pushing Israel into the arms of Turkey’s Cypriot antagonists, they may have considerably worsened their own strategic situation.
That's really interesting. I feel plagued. On one hand, I could exult in the euphoria of thinking that Israel is a country that is well-loved. On the other hand, I could be realistic, and note that Turkey is a much more robust country than the soon to be bankrupted Greece.
It's not just the Cypriots and Greeks who have begun to have a much closer relationship with Israel as a direct result of Erdogan's behavior and Islamist leanings. It seems the Bulgarians, the Serbs (quietly) and the Italians have begun to draw closer. I can't imagine that Turkey's NATO partners are thrilled with Erdogan either.
Israel is beginning to grow into an influence commensurate with its power and capabilities. n nThough risky, a successful Israeli strike at Iran (while the US sits on its hands) will allow Israel to fully emerge from vassal status to a duplicitous, incompetent and weak US under Obama, and become a true (benign) regional economic and power hegemon. n nTo the extent such a strike becomes necessary and therefore likely, one may as well look to the silver linings, and lay the groundwork. n nThe Israeli leadership is not asleep at the wheel. n nGood.
But something here of equal interest is being lost in the Jewish-Islamic polarization. Is it not true that Hamas requires Turkey as a partner because of the fraying of the Iran-Hamas-Hezbollah axis as Assad's regime unravels in blood and Iran assists as a regime prop? Hamas has lost its Damascus haven, and as Sunni-Shia differences are exacerbated by Iran's embrace of the sectarian Alawites, Hamas starts looking for distance. Turkey plays the Islamist game too, is solidly pro-Hamas and has a more central role in the mainstream orthodox Sunni mythos than Iran. n nSomehow an Israeli-Cyprus alliance doesn't seem all that geostrategically foreboding for Turkey that now plays both sides of the Islamic-Western divide with NATO's blessing and Obama's forebearance.
Keep in mind, as well, that Turkey may be on the verge of a serious financial collapse of its own. Recent articles from financial publications note that Erdogan and the Islamists bought their way to power as much as anything else by mandating that Turkish banks make risky loans to underwrite a faux economic expansion. The collapse of Turkish currency and a coming wave of loan defaults may eclipse Greece and Italy in size and scope. Turkey may find itself without the financial legs to carry Hamas or anyone else for that matter.
We can only hope.
Keep in mind, as well, that Turkey may be on the verge of a serious financial collapse of its own. Recent articles from financial publications note that Erdogan and the Islamists bought their way to power as much as anything else by mandating that Turkish banks make risky loans to underwrite a faux economic expansion. The collapse of Turkish currency and a coming wave of loan defaults may eclipse Greece and Italy in size and scope. Turkey may find itself without the financial legs to carry Hamas or anyone else for that matter.
A coming Turkish economic collapse has been forecast by Spengler [David Goldman] and Guy Bekhor the Israeli Middle East analyst, and others I'm sure. Meanwhile, the rescue plan that the EU foisted on Greece is a case of a remedy worse than the disease, as the EU [= Germany & France = Merkel & Sarkozy] foreclosed Greece's ability to have economic growth and did not provide Greece with a facility for borrowing money [selling bonds] at a reasonable interest rate, something like the eurobonds that Merkel vehemently opposes. Meanwhile, if Israel and Cyprus can bring their offshore natural gas into production and build pipelines to Europe through Greece, that might make Greece more valuable to the EU rather than just a poor cousin [presently treated as a stepchild]. In view of EU stupidity and failure in resolving its economic crisis, how dare they presume to tell Israel what to do?? n nAs to Cyprus, another fact to bear in mind is that in 1974 –not so long ago– Turkey invaded Cyprus and made about 200,000 Greek Cypriots homeless refugees. But we don't hear much about these refugees. There is no UN agency or commission or committee set up to deal with their plight, unlike the obsessive preoccupation of the UN with the Palestinian Arab refugees from 1948. There is no big "humanitarian" movement to return the Greek Cypriots to their former homes in the Turkish occupation zone of Cyprus. In fact, they have been mostly resettled unlike the Palestinian Arab refugees. Some refugees seem to be more worthy of rights to return than others. nRegarding Turkey and "human rights" groups, we don't hear much concern from these groups over the bad human rights situation in Turkey, nor do we hear about the rights of Armenians to have their genocide recognized, nor do we hear about how Ataturk drove about 1 1/2 million ethnic Greeks out of Anatolia in 1922. All of these groups that I know of focus their concerns on Palestinian Arabs. Armenians, Greeks, Jews from Arab countries, Israeli Jews, their rights are of no concern.
A coming Turkish economic collapse has been forecast by Spengler [David Goldman] and Guy Bekhor the Israeli Middle East analyst, and others I'm sure. Meanwhile, the rescue plan that the EU foisted on Greece is a case of a remedy worse than the disease, as the EU [= Germany & France = Merkel & Sarkozy] foreclosed Greece's ability to have economic growth and did not provide Greece with a facility for borrowing money [selling bonds] at a reasonable interest rate, something like the eurobonds that Merkel vehemently opposes. Meanwhile, if Israel and Cyprus can bring their offshore natural gas into production and build pipelines to Europe through Greece, that might make Greece more valuable to the EU rather than just a poor cousin [presently treated as a stepchild]. In view of EU stupidity and failure in resolving its economic crisis, how dare they presume to tell Israel what to do??
The only urgent question now is whether Obama will preside over the Turkish conquest of Syria or the Iranian conquest of Syria.
Oh this is like someone fighting over their weight, Turkey.