Rick Santorum’s stunning sweep of the Tuesday primary/caucus schedule has altered a race many of us thought had finally and irrevocably swung the way of Mitt Romney after his big wins in Florida and Nevada. Romney’s camp will try to spin his defeats in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado as just a momentary bump on the road to Tampa, and there are good reasons to believe he will still eventually win. But Santorum’s hat trick comes at a moment when even conservatives were starting to buy into the idea that the former Massachusetts governor was the inevitable nominee. Moreover, the reason why Romney lost undermines the basic rationale of his candidacy.
While Romney’s comment on CNN last week about not wanting to help the poor was taken out of context, it still betrayed the candidate’s inability to connect with ordinary voters. He not only doesn’t talk like a conservative. He comes across as out of touch with their concerns and those of everyday citizens. Romney’s technocratic approach to problem solving may seem to be ideal to help fix an economic downturn, but a man who makes such gaffes cannot be said to be a lock to beat a Democratic incumbent who will ruthlessly demagogue the Republicans via class warfare tactics. Because Romney’s number one asset is his electability, the remark about the poor, which came at a moment when the national economic statistics seemed to brighten, made him look like the wrong man at the wrong moment. Yesterday’s results must leave Republicans wondering whether Santorum has the ability to take advantage of his wins and if Romney’s strengths are sufficient to overcome this setback.
Romney’s loyalists will argue that Santorum is unelectable in November and his lack of a national organization and money still makes him a long shot for the nomination. There is also the fact that even if Santorum has definitely eclipsed a fading Newt Gingrich as the leading “not Romney” in the race, the former speaker is so driven by ambition and personal hatred of the frontrunner he won’t consider dropping out. Gingrich wasn’t on the ballot in Missouri’s non-binding primary and barely competed in Minnesota and Colorado. But even if it now seems unlikely he can rebound in March with wins on Super Tuesday, his continued presence in the race will divide the conservative vote to Romney’s advantage. Indeed, Romney will still be favored in Arizona and Michigan later this month and might even squeeze out a victory in Maine this week.
But by losing the Feb. 7 trifecta, Romney snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Had Romney won yesterday, he could have knocked off Santorum and solidified the narrative of his inevitability. By losing in Colorado where he was heavily favored, Romney has set up Santorum to be a dangerous rival.
Unlike both Romney and Gingrich, Santorum has become a better candidate as the race has gone on. Though Romney reaped the benefits of Gingrich’s implosion in the debates before the Florida primary, it was actually Santorum who won those encounters on the issues. Santorum’s appeal to working class voters may appall some conservatives, but it puts him in a good position to exploit Romney’s weaknesses.
Even more important, he has carved out a unique niche in this campaign as the one candidate who won’t sling mud at his rivals. While Romney and Gingrich have appeared ruthless and cynical by their willingness to say anything about each other, Santorum has been humanized by the campaign as voters got to know his family and to sympathize with him as the father of a sick and disabled child.
It should be remembered the only reason why Romney was able to become the frontrunner was the failure of more viable conservatives to get into the race or to put themselves forward as plausible candidates. Santorum seemed the most unlikely of all the contenders to get this far. But he is a genuine conservative on social issues and has the best grasp of foreign policy of any of those still standing. Though he is vulnerable on his record of support for earmarks and spending while in the Senate, should Romney attempt to “carpet bomb” him with negative ads in the upcoming primaries it will do more damage to himself than Santorum.
Santorum is still a long way from being considered a likely nominee, but his victories have changed this race from a cakewalk for a Romney to a genuine fight in which the frontrunner is favored but not certain to win. If Romney is to ultimately prevail, he will have to improve his game in the coming weeks and months. If he doesn’t, he may wind up looking back to this past week as the moment he blew the nomination.
Ah the Neocon-boys whine when a white, Christian American wins something. We're not smart enough. We don't have the "superior brain" that the Necon-boys have. We are rubes. We like Santorium. We like Palin. We like Bachmann. We must be dumb because we don't live in New Yawk. We like common sense and real life experience as opposed to pretentious, academic "know it alls". n nNeocon-boys whine, whine, whine.
Curious, Raymond. Who, exactly, are the "neocon boys" you mention?
An excellent assessment of the situation. Thank you, Mr. Tobin.
This was pretty much my analysis as I went to my MN caucus last night. Newt is a bitter old man, Paul too extreme on foreign policy, and neither my head nor my heart can embrace Mitt for all the reasons mentioned above. So that left Santorum. Even if Mitt wins the nomination with all his money and organization, how he is going to get those of us (and there appears to be a great number of us) to get out and vote or him in November?
Look who he will be running against . . . there's your answer. This will motivate voters to go vote like nothing else will.
Race keeps getting interestinger and interestinger just when I thought it was pretty well over.
The conservative Christians are stiring the cotraception. pro life, the evil liberals are attacking the church pot pretty hard to get through the predominately conservative Christian states. When those states are done and voters remember they could care less about those don't matter issues Romney will take the lead again. Santorum will end up being Romney's choice for VP. Santorum will be Romney's Dan Quayle.
The conservative base of the GOP, which is most of us, does not like Romney, does not want Romney, knows he is not at all conservative, and is convinced — rightly, I think — that Obama will chew him up and spit out little pieces in November. We want a choice, not an echo, and we will go as far as we can to be sure we get it. If that takes a brawl from here to Tampa and a brokered convention, so be it. Santorum appears to be our last chance to send that message to the RINO elites and Republican moneybags backing Romney. They are doing so for two reasons: they'll trade the White House for control of Congress and the money, and they do not want a truly principled Republican party. The Tea Party and its conservative allies are at war as much with the GOP elites as they are with the Democrats. Depend on it.
A choice, not an echo. Hmm…wasn't that Goldwater's slogan? n nYou seem to forget that the purpose of the nominating process is not to find someone who is ideologically pure — somebody like you — but the party member most likely to win the general election. Electability trumps all other considerations. n nNow, you may believe, with the Kamikazes and the jihadi Muslims, that it's best to go down in flames, in order to maintain your integrity. But you miss a crucial point. The rank-and-file of the Republican party, indeed most Americans, are not like you. n nI was bemused at seeing Newt Gingrich use as a pejorative against Romney not the word "liberal" or "progressive," but the word "moderate"! As long as you of the base refuse to support a Republican regarded as moderate outside your shrill, self-referential microcosm, then your entire house will fail in November.
Agree with Ajfneri, It's beginning to look like Romney-Santorum. Despite some hot rhetoric between the two, they haven't burned their bridges. Remember, though, that the establishment's VP choice, Marco Rubio, Is still in the wings. I guess it depends on how important Florida and the Hispanic vote are to the GOP and whether they think Rubio can deliver them. n nAnd please, Tobin, can the Obama "class warfare" rubbish. It will be incumbent on the Republicans, not the Democrats, to prove that they have not been on a decades-long war of plunder and rapine against the middle class, culminating in two botched wars and the worst crash since the Great Depression, also brought on by the Republicans. Were it not for their exploitation of social wedge issues (talk about class warfare!) and the politics of resentment, the GOP would have gone the way of the Whigs long ago. n nThat will be the narrative the GOP ticket will be running against. And you know how hard it is to prove a negative.
I have still not seen anything definitive as to why people in Colorado and Minnesota voted as they did, in particular, why many of the same people voted overwhelmingly FOR Romney four years ago. Has he gotten LESS conservative in the last four years? I don't think so.
The fashion is sinking us all. Santorum a career Washington Politician who endorsed the awful Arlen Specter over the more Conservative of Mr. Toomey. Santorum supported the “Bridge To Nowhere”, voted for Medicare Part D, even opposed the “Right To Work” like a typical Democrat placating Unions. Rick is simply taking many for a ride again, just as he did to voters in his former home State when he moved his Family to VA, while he pretended to live in PA – one of the big reasons why he lost the Senate Seat in historic levels. Those who are voting for him now, are doing so based on another false image, stuck on identity, not the substance. Rick even campaigned on a Federal Mandate in 1994, his hypocrisy matches his petulance. Rick Santorum has no Executive experience, went to Washington just 5 years after finishing Law School, and has stayed ever since. 17 years in the House and Senate, then remained to peddle influence in the Beltway. Rick is a terrible candidate for the Presidency, and will only end up reelecting the horrid Obama. Some are just stuck on the fashion. Best wake up before it is too late. Ann Coulter is right, no doubt about. We better get Romney the Nomination, or we are going to see Obama win the White House yet again.