The Romney campaign is now turning its attacks on the GOP candidate, Rick Santorum, who poses a greater threat to the former Massachusetts governor than any so far. Will it work? Perhaps, though I doubt it will work as well as the attacks on Newt Gingrich. The criticisms of the former House speaker succeeded because they seemed to conform to reality, with Gingrich himself confirming concerns about his emotional state and erratic style. It won’t be as easy to portray Santorum as a faux conservative, especially when the charge is being leveled by Romney, who has his own history of deviations from conservative orthodoxy. There’s also a chance Romney’s tactics will begin to backfire (which is what the Santorum campaign is hoping for in putting out this ad).
At some point, though, Romney has to begin making an (effective) affirmative case for his nomination. That remains his chief weakness so far – the inability to tie his campaign to a great cause. Right now, Governor Romney’s reflex is to rely on his biography, to portray himself as a successful businessman, a competent fixer, and a man who has never worked a day in his life in Washington. That simply isn’t enough. Both John McCain and Bob Dole had far more vivid and moving life stories than Romney – and they were wiped out by Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2008.
The temptation will be to rely on the Romney Death Star to do to Santorum what it has done to others. And it may work. But one can sense a growing weariness within the GOP with this approach. Romney is a smart and able man. If he believes he would be a better president than Rick Santorum (and Barack Obama), as he clearly does, then he has to find a way to make that case. He could, for example, make a persuasive case that he is the person best equipped to reform public institutions that were designed for the needs of the mid-20th century. (Our health-care and entitlement system, tax code, schools, infrastructure, immigration policies, and regulatory regime are outdated, worn down, and insanely out of touch with the needs of our time.) Playing off the line attributed to Chekhov, that you don’t become a saint through other people’s sins, the Romney campaign needs to operate from the awareness that you don’t become the GOP nominee through Rick Santorum’s earmarks or his votes to raise the debt ceiling.
Republican voters want more than that, and they are right to want it.
This refrain is getting tiresome….why wouldn't someone's biography be a leading reason to vote for him? Do you think that Ronald reagan would have been President if he hadn't been a two term governor of the largerst state? Of course biography matters, and the past also matters. we are now reaping the result of the indifference to Obama's past. And yes, one must also have an idea what to do with one's past. To evoke Dole and McCain's failed campiagns and ignore George W.Bush wins is altogether misleading George Bush was as much a moderate as Dole or Mccain but he won because the party rallied behind him. To win next september, the Republican party will ultimately have to unite and back the candidate that emerges from the bruising primary campaing and I still bet that it will be Romney- warts and all.
Biographies can be read in a lot of different ways. I remember a TV commentator group discussion about the significance of a poll that said nationwide something like 80% of voters believed that Reagan had been a good Governor, but that in California the figure was around 67%, which they all agreed was a very positive number, but the campaign had created an even greater sense of how well he had governed. I'm not sure being a businessman who likes to fire people and who isn't worried about the poor is creating that positive of a campaign image. I will agree, though, that he'll beat Santorum and that even if Gingrich rises again, which he might in debates and if Santorum's serious devotion to his religion mar him, the Gingrich haters will keep yipping at him and he'll fall again.
I also want to comment on your explanation for W's win compared to McCain's and Dole's losses. People liked W in 2000 and again in 2004 (they liked him a lot more than either Gore or Kerry). It didn't hurt him spending a night in jail on a DUI any more than Clinton was hurt by his cigar antics with Lewinsky. It didn't hurt him when he talked about how "Jesus" influenced him because it was sincere and common and he didn't lecture anyone. His librarian wife was likable too. And the people he'd gathered around him were impressive. He was also a cheerleader in college, which came out a little when he met voters. On the other hand, McCain was wishy washy in the extreme and Dole was not only boring but he had no plan and inspired no one (and you're right in that neither inspired Republicans either).
So, if Romney doesn't heed the advice in this column, he might very well win the nomination and poison everyone's opinion of him — I think it's a danger, anyways. We don't need a Massachusetts rich-man/businessman, we need a leader. He needs to turn those thirty-some percents into 67%'s and 80%'s! Then Obama will play the role of Carter in the fall!
I think that Romney and his people are acutely aware of the apparent lack of "connection" and are trying to humanize Romney even more (Notice how he often sports open necked shirts?) I don't think that his remarks- totally taken out of context- will hurt him more than usual. In some ways, he is more likeable than George W. . I disagree with the notion that he does not speak in broad ideas- he does it all the time and rather well. Right now, it is actually the conservatives that are savaging him more than the democrats (witness newt gingrich and the bain attack). If Romney does win the nomination- this will have been a useful prologue for the fall. BTW- Dole was very boring and McCain had the misfortune of running against a phenomenon.I daresay that Obama would have beaten any republican.
Campaigns start over after the convention. Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum are mostly being compared to each other now — but after Labor Day, the winner will start getting compared to Obama, and hopefully you'll be right about this being a useful prologue and the message will be honed (and cutting) and the issue will be Obama!
The new attack ads against Santorum are by-the-book rote paint-by-numbers feints against Rick from the right: big spender, bridge to nowhere, raised debt limit etc etc in little hit-em-on-the-head visual bursts for the reading impaired. Well, Santorum has a biography too and Romney's consistent inability to connect with voters and communicate his own biography translates into an inability to meet the challenge of anyone else's. The Death Star laser bursts disconnect from their targets: n n"Jesus Christ, big spending food-stamp libertine. Did you know that Jesus encouraged a culture of dependency, rewarding his followers welfare food assistance of loaves and fishes they had not earned and were not asked to work for? Did you know that Jesus associated with known prostitutes, mocking his claims to be the 'family values' candidate???"