After a brief visit to Bahrain earlier this month, it is clear the situation in Bahrain is reaching a head. February 14 marked the year anniversary of demonstrations at the Pearl Monument. Clashes and arrests continue. The Bahraini government has not been as proactive with reform as perhaps it might. Grievances in Bahrain—where the majority population is Shi’ite whereas the royal family and security forces are overwhelmingly Sunni—are real, and stability, security, and economic growth ultimately require they be addressed.
Bahrain might be the smallest Arab state, but it has disproportionate importance for American national security. It hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet, a vital tool in securing the Persian Gulf to international shipping and also, potentially, in containing Iran. While American officials generally recognize Bahraini grievances and pressure the king and prime minister to become more proactive with reform, the future of the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain will ultimately shape American decision-making.
The Bahraini opposition has generally argued—in English and to Western journalists and officials—that they are far more likely to acquiesce to the Fifth Fleet’s continued presence if the Americans side more completely with their demands for reform.
The problem is that some Bahraini activists have fallen into a trap of saying one thing in English, and yet another in Persian. Here, for example, is a statement reported in the Persian press in early September from a Bahraini activist that speaks of compromise in English:
Bahrain is America’s front line… The Americans will not easily allow removal of their stooges in the region unless the conditions dictate otherwise. Where can they find a ruler who is ready to give his oil to them for free? Or allow them to establish military bases? Allow them to do what they please in his country? To defend the Zionists and give them the domestic market and its chambers of commerce? This is what the Khalifa Dynasty has done for the Americans and it is documented.
Now, it is quite possible the person in question was misquoted by the Iranian press. And it is also true that the Bahraini opposition does not speak with a single voice. The words of a single activist do not obviate the need for reform. Still, the discrepancy between the opposition remarks in Persian and in English is glaring. Until the opposition describes its positions consistently in Persian, Arabic and English, distrust is going to hamper reform. It comes down to a choice: Bahraini opposition figures either need to tell the Americans what they do not want to hear in the American press, or tell the Iranians what they do not want to hear in the Iranian press. But it will not be possible to have it both ways.
Yes Michael, you brought an important point. The Opposition in Bahrain are a disarray of groups, never agreed a common point. Every house hold is an opposition group by itself. This indicates there is no political target to hit, but yearn to be with mother Iran.You can compare that with the Somali scenario where there is no , a political aim, you find every household is a faction on its own right. Relatively speaking , Bahrain is more democratic than its neighbours, this is a fact, wheather we like it or not.What can you say, If an opposition group fails to sit for negotiation? or sets preconditions for dialogue? Finally, I can say that, the opposition in Bahrain are politically immature, and disorganized. They started from no where and they will end up there!!! The only viable way to remain politically active is to engage in dialogue. MIchael, please pass this information to them in lieu of me.
Samir Ramadan nBahraini opposition is very clear in its objectives. It want a modern political regime to replace the Al Khalifa hereditary dictatorship. The prime minister has been in his post for 41 years. More than half the cabinet posts are occupied by Al Khalifa members (very democratic, isn't it?). The ruler is an absolute dictator who decides to arrest as many people as he wishes. At the whim of his pen he releases them. He is the head of the three powers. He appoints the ministers, he dissolves his parliament. In paralles with an elected chamber he appointed another chamber with same number of people to be his counter balance to the other powerless "elected" one. Two weeks ago Alkhalifa foreign minister said: We have no poltiical prisoners while Bissioni report called for the release of the prisoners as they were arrested for expressing their opinion. Amnesty Internaitonal and other human rights bodies consider Bahraini prisoners, especially the senior figures as prisoners of conscince, yet the foreign minister considers anyone who opposes his family's absolute dictatorship a criminal.