Just when the public was starting to get used to the idea of Rick Santorum perhaps becoming the new Republican presidential frontrunner, it appears that another momentum shift may be under way. After steady gains in national and state polls in the last two weeks, the Santorum juggernaut — which has been powered by both the passion of evangelicals and the widespread dissatisfaction on the right with Mitt Romney — may be starting to lose a bit of steam. Another new poll out of Michigan shows Romney gaining ground today and resuming a small lead over Santorum. When combined with other surveys showing the former Massachusetts governor assuming a sizeable lead in Arizona — which along with Michigan will hold primaries seven days from now — the Michigan polls ought to worry Santorum’s camp.
Up until late last week, Santorum had been leading a charmed life as far as avoiding negative publicity and engendering good will. But when the debate about contraception morphed from one about defending the religious freedom of the Catholic Church into one that centered on Santorum’s personal views on the matter, it served to remind Republicans his stands on social issues tend to be outside of the mainstream. While most Republicans do not hold his ideas about the importance of the family and opposition to abortion and gay marriage against him, the last week has been highly reminiscent of the way his 2006 Senate re-election campaign was dogged by controversial quotes from his book, It Takes a Family. Though Romney is still plagued by his inability to connect with ordinary voters and doubt has been cast on the notion of his greater electability, the kerfuffle about birth control may have been just enough to halt Santorum’s momentum and give his more moderate opponent a chance to save his candidacy before the voters in his home state of Michigan destroyed his hopes.
The Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll of Michigan conducted for the Michigan Information & Research Service shows Romney gaining considerable ground in the last week. The previous poll of Michigan Republicans showed Santorum with a nine-point, 34-25 percent lead. In less than seven days, Romney gained seven percentage points to resume a 32-30 advantage.
But the news was not all bad for Santorum today as a Rasmussen poll showed him holding on to a 38-34 percent lead over Romney. That was a slight improvement over Rasmussen’s survey taken a week ago that showed him with a 35-32 percent lead.
Taken together, these latest polls indicate that the Michigan primary is still up for grabs, because no matter which one you think is more accurate, both have produced results within the statistical margin of error. Clearly, either of the two leading candidates can still win the state, but it is to Romney’s advantage that the trend of the last three weeks (in which Santorum made steady gains) appears to have ebbed. These polls also confirm Newt Gingrich is not a factor in Michigan or any other upcoming state besides his home in Georgia. If Gingrich continues to lose ground that will be a major problem for Romney. Voters who abandon the former speaker because he is no longer seen as viable are most likely to wind up in Santorum’s column.
A lot can happen in the next seven days with tomorrow night’s CNN debate from Michigan (the first GOP debate in nearly a month) assuming great importance in the minds of the media if not the voters. Santorum’s debate performances have been consistently outstanding, but this time he will be appearing as one of the frontrunners and with a big target on his back rather than being able to stand aside as Gingrich and Romney savage each other. Romney’s enormous financial advantage will also be the focus of much coverage as he is likely to continue swamping the state with advertisements in the upcoming days, and Santorum will not be able to match or even come close to his efforts.
Santorum’s message of blue-collar conservatism is tailor-made for Michigan. But the race is sufficiently close that any doubts about his viability because of his hard line social views could be enough to help Romney squeak through to victory. The halt in his momentum also could enable Romney to survive his campaign’s most severe test.
"While most Republicans do not hold his ideas about the importance of the family and opposition to abortion and gay marriage against him…." n nDo most Republicans really agree that married women sin if they use birth control and that raped women impregnated by their rapists must carry fetuses to term and that women should not have prenatal screening? n nBecause if they do they are making the Democrats look better to me (and I've been a Republican for nearly thirty years).
Both political parties are made up of some really different groups who don't always agree, but who work together for what they have in common. In the Democratic Party, for instance you currently have labor and environmentalists who are at odds on Keystone … yet all will vote for Democrats to the legislature and support Obama. The Wiki article on the Democratic Party also says that 40% of Democrats claim to be pro-life. So, while you might guess libertarians especially wouldn't get along too well with the social-religious wing of the Republican Party, like the Democrats, they tend to work together to elect Republicans.
Still, benefiting from (and circulating) the fallout from Rick's personalized style of evangelical self-presentation may benefit Romney now in the primaries but this will be dud line of attack against Obama in the generals and Romney will be stalemated by his own record or his own biography in tacking against Obama domestically on policy issues and making it stick. But you go to elections with the candidates you have.
I'm certainly not thrilled with any of the GOP candidates, but Rick would get cremated.
I honestly don't know why Republicans arev so dissatisfied with Romney. He may not be Ronald Reagan (who only assumed his lofty status after he became President) but he is a very acceptable candidate. I am convinced that he is conservative financially- he is a Mormon after all!- he clearly is an excellent manager and he is also conservative on the so-called social values- he is a Mormon after al!- and for those who are disgusted with Obama's foreign policy,especially as per Israel, he is light years better. I would have no problem voting for him and, although i would vote for Donald Duck over Obama, I would have to hold my nose voting for Santorum. I even prefer Gingrich-by far- to Santorum.
Romney is highly questionable, but Santorum is highly unacceptable – not for any Christian views he MAY hold, in some brief moments, but for his highly Progressive VOTING RECORD that tends to enable Dim Liberal programs that should be dismantled, entirely – that have his vote. nThankfully, Newt cannot ev en generate a thread, any more. n nWhere are there any True Conservatives? I despair for America.