Tonight’s presidential debate in Mesa, Arizona, is rightly be touted as a crucial moment in the Republican race. Much has changed in the weeks since the GOP candidates were brought together in front of the television cameras. Rick Santorum, whose strong showings in the Florida debates were not thought to signify any real hope of his being the nominee, is now leading in the national polls. Mitt Romney, who was hoping to create an aura of inevitability, is now struggling to stay ahead of Santorum in his home state of Michigan, and Newt Gingrich has sunk to last place in some surveys and must fight the belief he no longer has a ghost of a chance of victory.
But while Santorum will enjoy being in the center of the stage rather, as up until now he has been relegated to the sides, he will also have to cope with being the object of attacks from both Romney and Gingrich in a way that he has never had to deal with in the many debates that have preceded this one. While all the participants, save Ron Paul, have something to prove tonight, the outcome may turn largely on one question: which Rick Santorum shows up in Mesa? Will it be the confident, relaxed and personable Santorum who has done so well in the previous encounters and whose image is as a caring father and clean politician who is not willing to engage in mudslinging? Or will it be the angry culture warrior whose obsessions with gays, contraception and abortion have become the liberal caricature of conservatism in the last week?
Santorum will likely be pressed tonight to explain his views on all these issues as well as his views of Satan’s role in public life. The trick for him will be whether he can stick to his views on social issues without coming across as the sort of person whom mainstream America fears will impose his personal beliefs on the nation. Conservatives want a candidate who shares their values, but most Republicans understand the last thing their party needs is to allow the 2012 election to be a referendum on the culture war about sex rather than on President Obama’s failed record on the economy and foreign policy.
Until now, Santorum has had the luxury of being able to concentrate his energies on pointing out the hypocrisy of both Romney and Gingrich on Obamacare and highlighting the weaknesses in their stands on taxes and spending. Tonight it will be his turn to be the focus of attacks, and his reaction to this will be instructive. If he is able to avoid being sidetracked by attacks and to avoid sounding defensive, he can emerge even stronger and place himself in position for a sweep of both Arizona and Michigan.
But if he is goaded into showing us the less attractive side of his personality and comes across as the public scold who will provide Democrats with campaign fodder, it may signal the beginning of the end of his short stay at the top of the GOP race.
The problem with your analysis is that while 'mainstream America' is turned off by the angry culture warrior, they aren't voting in the GOP primaries. Rather, those who like the angry culture warrior are the ones showing up to vote in the primaries. n nThe more a candidate wins the nomination by appealing to the reddest of the red, the less of a chance he has in the general election when the mushy middle shows up to vote. n nBut good luck convincing Santorum, or any of his fellow ideologues, that his message is going to turn off enough voters to guarantee Obama's re-election.
The problem with Santorum is that he isn't content just to let his beliefs be know but feels he must make them an issue. It makes one wonder if he has a position on anything else. n nThe point that being "public scold" will turn off voters is well-taken. But it doesn't just apply to Santorum. In a previous post I cautioned that unless the GOP and the right offer an affirmative platform of ideas, rather than a panoply of resentments against Obama and the classes he represents, "the party of No" will change from partisan epithet to public perception. Unfortunately, the typical response to the post was "What's wrong with No?" to Obama and the Democrats and all the terrible things they've wrought. n nOf course there's nothing wrong with opposition. But the party/movement must spell out what it's going to do once it's got the bad guys out of office. I've seen none of this, except from Newt Gingrich. He must be quite frustrated that the only candidate with an actual program, which has been either ridiculed or ignored, has been forced to pandering to a base which defines itself by what it is not and has no interest in ideas. n nI'm not advocating any of Gingrich's proposals or those of any other GOP candidate, though I really can't see any to be for or against. And that's the trouble. What's happening to the GOP reminds me of what's happening to the so-called Arab spring. In their rush to overthrow hated rulers, the people gave no thought to what would replace them. The ideological purists — the islamists — who have taken over in Egypt and Tunisia and Libya, and who will probably end up taking over Syria if Assad falls, only have the virtue that they are not those they'll have replaced.
Whatever public face Rick puts on, his words already uttered would finish him in the general. This man is general election poison and the fact that seemingly so many GOP voters–and most of the (often Catholic) pundits–can't see this is disconcerting to say the least. Commentary is one of the few conservative websites not under the sway of the religious right, evidently. It's been a very instructive period. I'm not sure I belong in the GOP anymore. This party of scolds anxious to undo the entire "sexual revolution" (including denying married women access to birth control and all women prenatal screening and abortions in the case of rape and life-threatening circumstances) is not a party I much want to associate with, though I believe Obamanomics is disastrous. This Santorum GOP is going to push a lot of us in the direction of a third party, I think,
Hang in there, Killer Paisley. I agree, but a third party will ensure Obamanomics in perpetuity. We may be there anyway, but there might still be a sliver of hope. A third party would kill all hope.