Yesterday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued another ringing condemnation of the brutal oppression going on in Syria. Clinton said that in today’s Internet culture, the Assad regime’s tactics could not be sustained indefinitely, as a “breaking point” would soon be reached. What’s more, Clinton also hinted that the Syrian opposition would be “increasingly capable,” a phrase that made it clear Washington would either arm the rebels or see to it that other nations did. She also expressed the hope that Russia and China, who have served as Syria’s diplomatic bodyguards in recent weeks and vetoed United Nations resolutions aimed at Assad, would also give way to pressure.
With the world watching helplessly as Bashar al-Assad continues to slaughter his own people, one would hope Clinton is right. But evidence continues to mount that Assad’s allies are betting the dictator will not only not crack but will succeed in suppressing the protests that have been going on there since last spring. Earlier this week, I noted the reports about Iranian naval vessels, including a supply ship, visiting a Syrian port where they may well have dropped off badly needed weapons for Assad’s security forces. Now a new report indicates that the international sanctions on Syria are being flouted by Venezuela, which is shipping oil directly to Assad. With the dictator showing no sign of losing his will to resist, and with the support of Iran, Venezuela as well as that of Russia and China, Clinton’s predictions are looking more like wishful thinking than a cogent analysis of the situation.
The alliance between Venezuelan autocrat Hugo Chavez and Iran is sufficiently close that his decision to come to the aid of Tehran’s beleaguered ally is hardly surprising. But the brazen nature of this gesture is one more sign that Syria’s friends are convinced Western optimism about Assad’s imminent fall is at best premature. Indeed, so long as they are able to keep him supplied with ammunition and oil and watch his back in the United Nations, the only thing that could lead to his demise is if he loses his nerve.
Clinton’s assumption about the inevitable end of any regime such as that of Assad is based on the idea that in an era of instant communication, violent tyrannies cannot sustain themselves. But it bears repeating that Assad is cut from a different stripe than the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt who went quietly to the chopping block last year. And Syria’s geographic position and military strength make a repeat of the rebel victory in Libya over a crumbling Qaddafi regime most unlikely.
So long as Assad doesn’t lose his willingness to shed his compatriots’ blood and has the loyalty of the majority of the members of his equally bloodthirsty security services, he has an excellent chance of surviving this crisis. Moreover, unless the West is prepared to take an active role in aiding and abetting the Syrian opposition as they did for the rebels in Libya, the contest there will continue to be a mismatch. Absent an American decision to do more about Syria than make empty predictions, Assad and his allies are unlikely to give up the struggle.
Jonathon, your analysis is spot on IMHO. Short of a full blown international intervention, Assad will remain in power. n nI am doubtful that simply arming the 'rebels' would change the balance in Syria in any appreciable way other than to end up getting MORE people killed. The Syrian army, while widely regarded as 'hollow' relying on aging Soviet era equipment, is STILL a formidable force when placed up against untrained, unorganized and under-equipped 'rebels'. n nFurther, we do NOT have the leverage needed to apply pressure on Putin, Iran, Chavez or the Chinese to stop shipments of arms or oil into Syria. n nAssad MAY be a lot of things but he's NOT stupid. He knows that as long as he has the support of Iran and the Chinese, he pretty much can do whatever he feels necessary to retain his power. n n n n
Hmmmm…. There is one thing not well known about Venezuelan oil — it is sour. n nMy dad, who worked in the oil industry (albeit a half century ago) told me that Venezuelan crude has one of (if not *the*) highest Sulfur content of any crude oil in the world. n nThis is problematic for two reasons. First, oil is refined essentially by distilling it, various "distillate products" (gasoline, kerosene, diesel fuel/home heating oil) boil at different temperatures and the vapors are captured and condensed and so forth. There are then the residuals that don't boil — heavy heating oils used in large furnaces, asphalt, etc. The refineries use a lot of catalysts, none of which particularly like sulfur any more than the automobile catalytic converters liked lead which is why we had to go to unleaded gasoline. n nBecause of its high Sulfur content, Venezuelan crude thus could (and I believe still can) only be refined in ONE super-special refinery, the CITGO (City Services) Refinery located in Texas. Yes Texas, USA. (One could theoretically build an identical plant somewhere else (it wouldn't be cheap) and then hire all the highly skilled (American) engineers and such to run & maintain it, but I don't think anyone has.) n nThis is why Chavez bought CITGO — he needs that refinery, without it, his oil is essentially worthless. So if he is sending oil directly from Venezuela the question becomes what is Syria doing with it? If you don't care about smell or smoke, possibly burning it in a power plant or similar furnace configured to burn heavy #6 oil — possibly doing this, but I think his real need is vehicle and aircraft fuel and this would not help him with that. n nNow if Chavez is sending *REFINED* Venezuelan product — gasoline, diesel, jet fuel (kerosene), etc. — then he almost certainly is sending product that was refined in the United States and that is both a problem and something that we can do something about. (Nationalizing CITGO if necessary — if Truman could nationalize the railroads during the undeclared Korean war, we can take over a refinery during the undeclared Global War on Terror. n nThe other possibility is that crude is being traded for refined product. Remember that the Venezuelan crude has to be refined in Texas, but it doesn't have to arrive on a Venezuelan boat. He could send a tanker to – say – Mexico where his sour crude is then put into a big storage tank. This is "traded" for refined product which is then loaded into the tanker which then sails to Syria. Refined product is worth more than the crude (and you loose about 10% during refining) so it would be more than just a gallon-for-gallon exchange but this is a standard business practice that happens all the time and is perfectly legitimate (so far). n nIt essentially is what Iran does — Iran does not have its own refineries which is why the oil embargo causes gasoline shortages inside Iran. n nThese refined products, made from non-Venezuelan oil, is then falsely manifested as being Venezuelan oil and sent to Syria. And the Venezuelan crude is then shipped from Country X to CITGO's Texas refinery, possibly by even the same tanker returning from Syria. n nOr Syria accepts the raw Venezuelan crude and sells/trades it to other oil-producing states who dilute it with their sweeter crude (think Rum diluted in Coke) and then ship the whole mess — the Sulfur content of the crude is higher than it otherwise would be which hurts the environment but still low enough for the refineries to be able to deal with. n nTHE QUESTION TO ASK IS WHAT DOES SYRIA WANT VENEZUELAN CRUDE FOR? AND THE RELATED QUESTION OF IT ACTUALLY **IS** VENEZUELAN CRUDE ON THOSE BOATS…. n nSomeone really needs to ask this question. I am 99% sure that Venezuela can't refine its own oil, that it has to be done in the USA, so what is on those boats and where is it coming from???
The second thing that no one is saying about Joe Kennedy's heating oil program is that diesel fuel and home heating fuel are essentially the exact same thing. (Diesel fuel often is a higher grade of #2 oil, with minimum Cetane ratings and some minimum lubricating qualities.) n nSo many commercial trucking companies were avoiding state/federal fuel taxes on Diesel fuel by instead purchasing Home Heating Oil that Federal law now requires all Home Heating oil to be dyed bright red and one of the things the police do at the truck stops is check to see what color the fuel in the truck's tanks is. n nAll Diesel engines made after 2007 have catalytic converters and we thus had to go from "Low Sulfur" Diesel fuel to "Ultra Low Sulfur" Diesel fuel — 500 to 50 parts per million if I am not mistaken. And the Feds required that a certain (increasing) percentage of every refinery's output of Diesel fuel be the ultra-low version. Remember that all Diesel fuel can be used as home heating oil. n nNow the CITGO refinery is really struggling to meet the 500 PPM rule — some of its Diesel is below that but some of it isn't and the combined mix can meet the 500 PPM but there is NO WAY they can meet the 50 PPM. What to do? n nThey can shift some to producing more gasoline than diesel (remember that gasoline initially was a waste product in the production of kerosene needed for oil lamps) but not that much. And the Diesel that tests under 50 PPM they can sell as UltraLow Diesel and such. But what to do with the rest? n nOh, Joe… The EPA calls it "sulfur dumping" and what no one has yet addressed is all of the sulfur that isn't in the Diesel fuel anymore now being in the home heating oil. Which is burned in congested urban neighborhoods where the sulfur becomes Hydrogen Sulfide and such, and then reacts with water (including the water in your lungs) to become Sulfuric Acid. And we have minority asthma rates going through the roof…. n nChavez has a really good deal here. He takes a product that he can't sell (high sulfur Diesel oil) and then donates it (as home heating oil) to Joe Kennedy — getting both a tax deduction and public relations credos. And what is he considering the value of his donated product to be — the price he gets for his ULS Diesel or what he could get (in Texas) if he dumped his high-sulfur oil on the saturated market where there is both no local use for it and where it would have to be segregated from the lower-sulfur product. n nHe then makes his money off the gasoline, and uses the "Joe's Oil" to advertise and promote his CITGO gasoline. And people quietly accept all of this without questioning anything. n nI am not cynical though….