What is the significance of Hamas, an extremist group long resident in Damascus, suddenly throwing its weight behind the anti-Assad uprising? At first blush it is easy to dismiss it with a snort as rats leaving a sinking ship, and there is much truth in this analysis, but there is also more than that going on here–and it bodes ill for Bashar al-Assad’s longevity. A friend who follows the Middle East closely emails me this compelling analysis which bears a close read:
This development, which I personally find astonishing (a sentiment that I have to think is shared by the Syrian regime), is a body blow to Bashar al-Assad’s fundamental narrative, in which he claims to be targeted by the west and Israel because of his leadership of the “resistance” and his support for the Palestinian cause. When the party that is the Palestinian resistance chooses to desert Assad’s regime, the regime’s resistance and pro-Palestine narrative collapses–and that is what [Ismail] Haniyeh’s speech yesterday accomplished.
It is also a severe strategic blow to the Assad regime and its Hezbollah and Iranian allies. With Hamas abandoning the Assad-led resistance coalition, the Syrian regime no longer has two fronts with which to confront Israel–Gaza is now lost to them. Perhaps gone, too, are the Palestinian camps of Lebanon, which for decades have been a weapon the Syrian regime could use to manufacture violent crises at its convenience. Without Hamas’s cooperation, it would be extremely difficult for the Syrians to provoke a crisis in the Lebanese camps, especially since their main proxy, the PFLP-GC, lost its credibility after busing young Palestinians to the Israeli border to be shot at by Israeli troops.
Haniyeh’s speech also signals Hamas’s full switching of patronage from Syria to Egypt. Whatever regional support Hamas summons in the future will come through Cairo rather than Damascus. It is hard to imagine that Hamas would have taken this step if they judged that Bashar can survive this crisis. We have to assume Hamas believes Assad is doomed.
Hamas’s desertion also means the “Axis of Resistance” is now a single-sect affair, comprised only of Iran, the Iraqi Shia militants, the Assad regime, and Hezbollah…and no major Palestinian group at all. Simply put, Bashar al-Assad has lost the ability to credibly claim he is defending Palestine against Israeli aggression. He is now only a minority sect dictator fighting to preserve his sect’s ascendancy.
All of that strikes me as accurate, but of course even a doomed Assad can still take many people down with him–as his security forces are currently doing in Homs. That is all the more reason for other states including the U.S. and our regional allies to do more to help the opposition and thereby shorten Syria’s ongoing civil war. It may be odd to be on the same side as Hamas, but if the U.S. and more moderate nations don’t act to help the Syrians then we will forfeit influence in the future to the likes of Hamas and al-Qaeda.
ahh! But what happens if, by some stroke of luck, Assad survives? Will he let Hamas and Mashal back in? And where does Hamas go now they've left Syria? Egypt? Libya? nNo Sir! Once you leave the safe haven and are on the open sea…well…I expect Mashal will lose his position to Haniyeh soon, and then we'll have a Hamas Civil War! Hooray!
On the one hand, it is important to get rid of Assad since he is a tool of Iran's mullahs–the most dangerous force on earth today. On the other hand, the fact that Hamas and al-Qaeda are anti-Assad suggests that his replacement will be even worse.
I disagree. There is no problem more urgent than Iran. Hamas and Hezbollah are problems but not existential problems. Iran is for Israel. And for the United States it is a far more dangerous strategic problem than Hams or Hezbollah, neither of which is a strategic issue. Anything that weakens Iran is good for both Israel and the United States.
A good point.
Yes Gord11, Iran is the main problem right now. We need to deal with the Iranian regime and take them out completely. Subversion, economic sanctions, trade embargoes, naval blockades, if necessary miltary strikes against the Iranian nuclear program with a view to CRIPPLING it. Iranian regime change is the end-game here. Not that the Obama administration has a clue. Just taking out the few Iranian oil refineries would help a lot.
On Sunday, February 12th, Haniyeh met with Khamenei where, according to JPost, Khamenei advised Haniyeh he must, “must "always be wary of infiltration by compromisers in a resistance organization, which will gradually weaken it." Now, two weeks later, Haniyeh is not only throwing Hamas’ support against Iran’s only Mid-East ally, Syria, but is also looking for a new home for terrorist organization in Egypt or possibly Qatar. n nIt may be my cynicism but something doesn’t quite mesh …or mesh’s too well. n
but the top gun in Hamas was not Haniyyah, who merely ruled Gaza, but Khalid Mash`al. What does Mash`al, who was actually stationed in Damascus, have to say? Where he does he –the "political secretary" of Hamas– stand? Maybe Haniyyah resented Mash`al's dominance all these years. Maybe Mash`al wants to stay on good terms with the Assads. If Haniyyah is now the Hamas top gun, what happens to Mash`al??? nBy the way, how come Obama was so soft and tender towards Assad for all these years, knowing that both Hamas and Hizbullah were headquartered there?
We know that Palestinian jihadism is fueled by Iranian money. Syria was a safe heaven and a conduit. Now it is rapidly becoming useless as both.The true question isn't whether Hamas will make noises about supporting Syrian opposition, but whether the Iranian cash flow is drying up. If it does, Hamas will have to accommodate in order to gain access to the bottomless pit that is Palestinian donor money. Now, with Hamas leaders out of Syria, they will try to leverage their "support" for democracy into some sort of acceptance and a seat at the table, and, unfortunately, this administration and the EU are full of patsies ready to grant them this opportunity.
Hamas not only has Egypt as a patron but Turkey. And down the road the emirates. This isn't some charade playing a double game. The Palestinian identity is, as is all historical abtractional ideals, inevitably to some degree a "construct" (replete on the Pali side with anti-Zionist bad twin doppelganger fabrications and erasures of Jewish history)–but the construct that the Palestinians were "an invented people" and invented as puppet proxies for the Iranian hegemons was itself an all-cats-are-black-in-the-dark construct cruder than many.
There is very little to indicate that Assad's grandson won't also be running Syria. Assad was smart to kill western journalists as they won't come back very earnestly now and he's free to wage whatever kind of Stalinist atrocities he likes w/o being encumbered by faux-complaints of the western progressive media, which, in reality supports him more than they don't. In 3 months the 'rebels' will be painted by the New York Times as "Supported by the US" and that's all if will take for mass media opinion to turn against them. Then everyone can get back to their day jobs lobbying for Iran.
Interesting discussion. May I join in? I believe Hamas and the “Palestinians” are not thinking about Syria. They are thinking about Judea and Samaria as their new home. They have high hopes that the Hamas-PA reconciliation agreement will pave the way for elections, which Hamas will most probably win a huge majority. So, at the same time as some may be looking forward to a Cast Lead 2 operation in Gaza, there are those who are looking to expand Hamas’ control now over Judea and Samaria and with it, a move to challenge Israel on Jerusalem. Egypt under the MB are going to support Hamas in this regard and will act to tighten the noose around Israel’s neck by toying with moves to abrogate the Camp David Accords. My berst guess is that Hamas would like to have a presence in Sinai. I would, if I were them and Egypt will find a way to put them up, somehow.
It seems pre-mature to write off Assad association with “The Palestinians”. It should not be SO difficult to find a replacement for Hamas as The “legitimate representative”. Assad may try to allege that Hamas has sold out to Israel via The PA and that only The Alawite Iran Palestinian Axis truly represents “The Palestinians”.
The Israelis have procrastinated for a considerable length of time on numerous fronts, least of all Lebanon. There may be an attempt on Syria’s part to mend fences with an invitation to join in a grand attack upon Israel, just before Israel has a chance to undertake the Iran job. There is a chance all of this acrimony between Syria and Hamas is nothing more than “rumor theatre” and designed to mask preparations for the attack on Israel.
Between North Korea and Pakistan, I do not think it be soooo difficult to procure a weapon of mass destruction or two for such a grand venture. The way I see it, Obama will have no choice, nor will Europe have any choice but to coordinate plans with Israel to block, intercept and reverse attack. We will probably win, but at what cost.
If Assad falls, Syria descends into failed state status, and Hamas has a high probability of taking over either openly or behind the scenes. r nr nIt remains to be seen if Assad has the stomach of his father. So far he has been hesitant to bring the hammer down. r nr nWhichever side wins, the result is massacre.