With only a couple of days left until the crucial Michigan primary, it appears that the latest momentum swing in the Republican presidential contest may have saved Mitt Romney’s candidacy. A loss to Rick Santorum in his home state would be a devastating blow to the GOP’s erstwhile frontrunner. But Santorum’s surprising surge appears to have ground to halt in the last week. A renewed focus on his extremely conservative views on social issues combined with an all-out attack on his congressional record by Romney’s well-oiled campaign machine has damaged the Pennsylvanian. Even more, a poor performance in what was probably the last Republican debate on Wednesday may have been the turning point in this latest chapter of a highly volatile race. All signs point to a Romney victory in Michigan on Tuesday. With Arizona also likely to go for Romney that same day, it will be possible for his campaign to again proclaim his nomination is inevitable.
But amid the good news, there are also some troubling signs for Romney. Just as he did a month earlier with Newt Gingrich in Florida, Romney’s assaults have succeeded in diminishing the appeal of his foe. By going negative in this manner, he has further embittered an already nasty primary battle and ensured his opponents will stay in the race long after they are no longer viable. Even more importantly, by attacking Santorum from the right, Romney has given new credence to the charges he is a hypocrite and a political chameleon who is willing to say anything in order to gain a momentary advantage. This will hurt him in the long slog toward November.
The process by which Romney is trying to take down Santorum has been efficiently run and done the job as befits the work of a brilliant businessman and planner. Romney has sought to brand Santorum as a symbol of dysfunctional Washington establishment and even tried to cast doubt on the former senator’s conservative bona fides. Combined with the well-founded doubts about his electability that Santorum’s comments about religion and contraception have inspired, Romney’s blasts may deliver him a sweep of the two states holding primaries on Tuesday. That would enable him to survive a three-week period during which Santorum’s surge provided the greatest challenge yet to Romney’s candidacy.
However, the single-minded manner with which Romney has sought to take Santorum apart will leave a bitter taste in the mouths of more than Santorum’s large family. The spectacle of a longtime GOP moderate criticizing the former senator for being a “team player” was absurd. So, too was Romney’s attack on Santorum’s backing for earmarks when it is remembered he asked Congress to use the same device to fund the 2002 Winter Olympics. And while some Pennsylvania conservatives are still sore at Santorum for backing Arlen Specter in 2004, Romney’s harping on this issue might have some credibility if he had actually backed Pat Toomey’s primary challenge.
It should be remembered that politics isn’t beanbag but it’s hard not to sympathize a bit with Santorum’s anger at having a recent convert to conservatism like Romney attacking him from the right. The ease with which Romney has tacked right on any issue where he had an opening against a specific candidate speaks to the hardheaded manner with which he has run his campaign. A president needs to be single-minded and even ruthless on occasion pursuing a goal. But Romney’s ability to harp on an opponent’s weaknesses in spite of his vulnerability on the same issues also reinforces the impression he is a bit of a phony with few identifiable ideological principles other than his faith and his family.
It is also Romney’s bad luck that the rules of the 2012 Republican presidential race make a knockout blow unlikely. Proportional delegate allocations will make it impossible for Romney to clinch the nomination until late in the spring at the earliest. It is likely Santorum will stay in to provide a conservative alternative to primary voters even if his losses in the next week make his nomination unlikely.
Romney may have been right to conclude the only way to beat his more conservative opponents was to besmirch them in any way possible (something that was a lot easier to do to a man with Newt Gingrich’s baggage than Santorum). But in doing so, he has stoked the anger of conservatives rather than won them over. A long, nasty primary battle that lasts for months will diminish Romney’s coffers and his vaunted advantage in electability.
Romney has many excellent qualities and his prowess as a problem-solving businessman may be what the country needs in 2012. He can make a strong argument that he is the only one of the remaining Republican candidates who can beat Barack Obama in November. But primary victories won by tactics that remind voters of his insincerity will make it much harder for him to accomplish that goal.
The good news from all this is that, contrary to what Mr. Tobin has been confidently asserting since August, there is a an entirely plausible, though, to be sure, still fairly small chance that someone else will be compelled to get in. And, indeed, even Mitch Daniels left a crack open of Fox News Sunday. n nInstead of pushing his new, and in many respects fairly commendable tax plan, the Romney campaign has attacked Santorum in the most disingenuous and absurd manner described in this post. Even in proposing this new tax plan, Mitt Romney seems to be bending over backwards to make all sorts of superfluous and indeed harmful concessions to Obama's class warfare obsession. n nThe fact that Romney will not be able to sew up the nomination until mid-May at the very earliest means that the electorate will have time to evaluate his ability to make a consistent, coherent, unapologetic case against Obama that has a good chance of being successful in the fall. If, however, as one has good reason to fear, he fails to do so, then he may indeed fail to accumulate the delegates until the convention and things could be very much open to a new entry at that time.
As someone on the ground here in Michigan, there is zero enthusisam for Romney. He may still win but Santorum isn't out of the running. n nThe RINO's, Beltway Establishment, Neocons and the "commentariat" all want Mittens. To what end? He's just another liberal republican. After the primaries, when the Obama Machine turns it's sights on MIttens, do you really think MSM is going to go soft on Mittens? n nObama for five more years…….get used to it.
Very few of the people you accuse of wanting Mittens actually do so. Many but by no means all of them are settling fro him and doing so with considerable reluctance and lack of enthusiasm. Certainly his campaign style hasn't helped. Foreign policy/defense posture are nice though and the new tax plan is a good start so long as something flatter and better is coming at some proximate point (in his administration, should he have one). We'll cross that bridge when we get to it, however. Very long way to go to the nomination.
also on the ground here. there may be no "enthusiasm," but there is some common sense: our local tea party leader just sent an email saying he was voting for Romney as the only chance to beat Obama. that even tho Santorum maybe embodied his personal conservative beliefs better, Santorum can't win in the general election. n nthe GOP just needs to decide if they really want to win in November. if not, the candidates should continue sniping at each other, the pundits should continue the fantasy that someone new will enter the race, and we should continue supporting Anybody But Romney.
Romney has been running for president for several years. He has no passion because he has no strong beliefs. He may be an adequate manager but the nation needs more than a competant manager – govt. needs to be downsized considerably. n nBut the population has changed, in no small part to never-ending mass immigration. The country is made up more and more of foreigners (immigrants) who skew opinion to the Big Government/Central Planning direction, which is how most nations around the world function. Tyranny of the Do-Gooders is our future. We are now told what to eat and drink, can't pack a sack lunch for our kids in school, soon we will be told how many squares of toilet paper we will be allowed to use per bathroom visit. Don't laugh, it will happen. n nBut the MSM, the Eastern Elites, the Belway, the Neocons, etc. all are government lovers, lovers of the mechanics of government. In other words, all central planners.
He may have John Bolton in his corner but the neocons as a brand have endorsed consistent politicians and public servants who could connect on the basis of their own core beliefs and personna and didn't require staff-generated small bore process molehill attack points blown up by big bucks and repetition to Macy's Day Parade float pseudo Godzilla proportions. Reagan, Thatcher, Romney. Which of these things doesn't belong with the others?
Romney does have the problems explained in this article. He has defined himself as a very nasty self-centered hater (at least of Republicans because he otherwise says Obama's problem is just that he's in over his head). That is, if he could be as nasty toward Democrats as he is toward Republicans, he might still energize the base in the fall … but it just looks like he's likely to be the worst possible candidate of all. Certainly not the most electable. Oh well, at least he's got all the big money Republicans on his side. That will surely help him connect with everybody else!
Whatever Mitts flaws (and they are man) nasty self-centered hatred is a commodity Obama bids fair to monopolize. It is certainly true that Obama is utterly incompetent and in over his head but more to the point he is a very radical, theologically rigid left-wing fanatic. A minimally accurate critique of his presidency (quite unlike the disingenuous BS Romney is spewing at Santorum) will inevitably not be attractive but if presented with clarity and rhetorical skill so overwhelmingly supported by the truth that it cannot fail to be persuasive. In a addition to such a critique a positive vision will have to be presented as well, of course, and so far Mitt has shown himself quite unable to accomplish either task. n nIt is true those on the left who are marinated in luditie, incoherent, factually unsupported innumerate, immoral absurdities (but I repeat myself) find much to like in the Obama presidency. Too many in the middle, while not quite able to come to terms with this ludicrous filth are yet far too uninformed and far too influenced by the Obama-infatuated media, education and cultural establishments to be fully prepared to reject him quite so completely as he deserves. Still, a sufficiently skilled and principled GOP candidate can overcome these obstacle but there is a real question whether such a candidate is currently in the field.
And his fleet of GM autos should get him some soft-ball interviews with car-fancier Jay Leno on the Tonight Show.
We're both enjoying making a point with sarcasm … but I can actually visulaize Romney going on Jay Leno and having one of those everybody laughing and joking love-fests that have only been reserved for the likes of Clinton and Obama — and if that could really happen, he might win the independents and still carry the base of the Republican party that wants a reason to support the nominee (The R candidate will get the anybody-but-Obama votes as long as that candidate isn't frightening).
No. Not this "anybody-but-Obama" voter – it is anyone but BOTH of them.
In Massachusetts, he was a self-centered hater with Republicans but nicer than could be with the left and the Democrats. I am starting to think that this is a Mormon mindset — and he WAS a Mormon Bishop and Stake President — to be totally ruthless in asserting your will over your own people but trying to make friends with outsiders. n nThe MA constitution gave him explicit power to overturn Margaret Marshall's decision on Gay Marriage — I think she knew that which is why she gave the legislature 6 months to legalize it on its own (and it didn't). He didn't want the left upset with him, while his own people — he would excommunicate them if they disagreed with him — and he did. n nI would rather have Obama as President than Romney — Obama would unite the Tea Party opposition and be neuered like Clinton post '94— Romney would destroy the Tea Party. n nThe man is Darth Vader….
Mitt Romney, the third coming of Robert Dole 1996 (McCain 2008 having been the second). This guy like Dole in 96, is sucking all the air out of all enthusiasm the GOP had after a mandate in a midterm election.
And then for those of us who saw him for 4 years in Massachusetts….. n nIf Romney wins the nomination, win or lose in the general, it will be the end of the GOP.
The GOP had a choice after the mid-term elections: tack right or stick to the center. They chose to stick to the center. Hence, I will not send a single dime to the RNC. And I'm not sure what I'm going to do in November. Probably focus on a few Tea Party candidates in the House or (gasp) the Senate. And stock up on ammo.
A bit of a phony? Many of us are still stuck on the word picture that the trees in Detroit are "just the right height"–are they trimmed by marauding gangbanger hobgoblins on Devil's NIght? How is a campaign run on implausible cherry-picked opportunistic sound-bite attacks from the right interspersed with detours into outright incoherence supposed to be a formula for winning a general election against the attack dogs of the Dems? Meanwhile the media's running statements made by Rick through spin repeat cycles doesn't translate into the candidate himself indulging in continuous repetitions of his religious convictions, though to be fair, he has convictions and they aren't vote pullers from an electorate less attached to the Catholic evangelical harmonized family-value (and Satan shunning) bedrock commitments than he lately has purported to represent. And, Romney's convictions don't necessarily outlast the latest election cycle when the pre-owned campaign gets another coat of wax and paint. But yet another pass through detailing to shift-left and go moderate against Obama probably wouldn't take. He's baked in as a "severe conservative"…
It is absolutely amazing how the Romney haters are spinning this whole episode. Romney has indeed run a ruthless campaign but this is exactly the kind of candidate we need. (Thatcher was ruthless too-I was there).He wants to be President and he will use every weapon in his arsenal to beat Obama- as he has beaten his Republican challengers. Actually, the future historians will marvel at how he won the nomination (maybe even the Presidency) by being opposed (supposedly) by the base of his party. And we get to the biggest misconception of it all. You'd think that everyone hates Romney so much that he could barely get enough votes to fill a phone booth- yet- he consistently wins every contest that counts(especially if he wins Michigan and Arizona). Who do you think is voting for Romney? Martians? phantoms? no- his votes come from every sector of republican voters !! Only in South Carolina did he lose and he learned that mistake. In actuality, Romney is showing himself to be a great candidate and we will need every ounce of guile, strength and ruthlessness to beta Obama.
So he'll beat Obama by having the GOP base stay home on election day (not so hypothetically). So far AFIK his vote count is down from last run and he wins in primaries with total vote counts also suppressed vis a vis 2008. If it rains in states critical to his success on voting day he could be in trouble.
there are still many primaries ahead so we will see about the vote, but in any case, if the vote is lower than 2008 ,is that romney's fault? if those other 'conservatives' are such great candidates, why haven't they ginned up the base? the fact tis, very simply, that the vast majority of base republicans will vote for any candidate against obama-and romney is the most ruthless one and probably the best one to face obama.
No, we won't. n nRomney honestly believed this — that the "majority of base republicans" would vote for any Republican for MA Governor instead of Deval Patrick — and who is governor? n nHis tactics for winning Republican primaries, particularly in states where Independents outnumber Republicans simply will not work — do not work — in the General Elections. Principled conservatives do not have the pragmatic moral flexibility of the businessman.
There are legitimate questions about Santorum's economic conservatism. Tobin apparently is a friend of Santrorum's and sees these as off limits, but they aren't. n nThere is also great concern over Santo's continual intemperate religious comments, but Commentary has already proclaimed that Romney can't criticize these in the GOP primaries, because it would be "attacking from the left." So Tobin and others are pretty much demanding that a political candidate not run negative ads against his opponent, which is pretty unheard of in politics, I think.
The sad truth is the GOP once again, has failed to find any good candidates. Romney is really a liberal who appeals to so called "independents" (who are usually socially liberal with a tiny bit of fiscal conservatism). Romney appeals to the "Eastern Elite" but has zero appeal to the great middle fo the country, who just look at him and think "huh"? n nBut the Elites, the Neocons, etc. won't accept anyone else except Northeastern, mild mannered Ivy League types.
It used to be that a man would run "negative" ads by saying how he was better than the other man. n nIf anyone was as well financed as Romney and had the 6 years to do the research he has, Romney would be the laughingstock of the country. n nQuick question: What was his "dollar per vote" yield during his last attempt? For such a good businessman he really didn't do all that well on that one… n nFurther, Dole & McCain were legitimate disabled veterans and war heros. Romney????
Give Mittens a break – he suffered severe knuckle injuries knocking on all those doors in France, all the while real Americans were forced to fight in the war that Mittens was cheering for – easy to say you support a position, but actions speak louder. n nMittens clearly shows he will say anything – but his actions show him to be fake. n nGenetically, his boys, all military age, in a ten year "patriotic" war – not one Romney serves in the Military – blood runs yellow in the Romneys.
He was "severe"as Governor, but he was not conservative! n nAnd I wonder how many DEMOCRAT women Santorum's comments and values will attract. nRemember that the Dems tend to treat their women like dishrags and that tripling the REFUNDABLE child tax credit is money that goes to women — they can even have it as a CREDIT on their W-2 — instead of a deduction, each week they get the bonus. n nIf a President made a bona-fide promise to women that they could be home "barefoot and pregnant" and not loose their house (the only reason that many still work full time), they would know about the SCOTUS Baird decision and that worst-case, they go pay $20/month cash to the pharmacist for their B/C pills (or follow the Catholic "rhythm method" of timing sexual activity to the times the woman is not likely to get pregnant). n nIf these women were CONVINCED that they could quit their jobs, they would pull their shoes off in the street, in the snow, and hand them to you. There are a LOT of women who would like to be home with their kids – a LOT of truly exhausted women who would love an extra 3 hours sleep a night. Look at Karen Hughes and why she went home to Texas. n nThere is precedent on this — in the 80's, Russian/Soviet women HATED Rashivia Gobecheve, not because of her personality but because she didn't have to work but they did. They HATED her…. n nWomen are not going to openly say they would like to be home barefoot and pregnant, but a lot of them will quietly admit that they would love to be home in slippers with their kids. nIf the price for this is to be called "girls" or worse — hey, look at what women put up with in terms of Clinton's activities….
I don't feel sorry for Santorum one bit. He had the upper hand, he seems to have lost it. I find it incredible that anyone, especially Tobin, would forget that politics are for sharks. Obama is absolutely a shark, as was Clinton, Bush, etc. If Romney is a shark, Santorum should have been a bigger smarter shark. Now, Santorum is going way personal and ugly because he's mad that his political record is twisted- gee, ya think? Is any opponent in politics NOT going to twist whatever they can? I don't see Romney taking his attacks at a personal level- for example, Romney's not calling Santorum a blue collar whatever (like Santorum's Romney's an elite), an Occupied Wall Street whatever, a liberal, in cahoots with Paul (because of course Gingrich and Santorum would never cahoot together), etc. I like Santorum, but I don't feel sorry for him. I don't feel sorry for Romney, Gingrich, or Paul. They all signed up for this masochistic blood bath, and whoever survives hopefully will have even sharper fangs. n nObama went far, far left for the nomination, destroyed Hillary, then did a cervical damaging turn to the center, all to govern like a foolish leftist while embracing Hillary in his cabinet! I have no idea why so many people sigh and moan over the lack of enthusiasm for Romney- Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul would each have their unenthusiastic versus enthusiastic followers. The big thing for any of the candidates is that there will be huge anti-Obama enthusiasm. Gas up to $6+ a gallon, Elmer Fudd could get elected. If Santorum is tough and smart, he needs to find a way to win, and not cry. And stop saying stupid asinine things- make his case specifically and in context- he lets everyone run away with a million different meanings from the one he meant. That is a serious problem.
Santorum is a complete hypocrite. He was pro-choice before he was pro-life and he's a flip-flopper. It's OK for him to define which earmarks are good and bad, but he wants to deny anyone else the same free voice. He touts his tough democratic state and expects slack for some of his positions due to that but then blasts Romney when using the same argument. He's more than willing to pile on others and cry's like a little baby when he gets painted with the same brush he's painting with. J. Rubin called this one correct. n nIMO, his actions are about as un-Christian as any thing else he can argue about the others ('cept Newt, of course). Ron Paul was right, he is a fake . . or as Santorum, he's a real, real fake. Applies to grace to others in the campaign as well as his fiscal positions. n
Romney with his despecable tactics may win many primaries, but angers too many conservatives. He maybe the one candidate who will make possible for Obama to have a second term by damaging the other two candidates too much to win and discredit himself eternally. In the last 40-50 years it has been without example in the republican primaries a wrecking machine like Romney's.