According to conventional media wisdom, President Obama is likely to cruise to reelection next November. And when you’re just looking at the disaster of a GOP field, it’s easy to believe that. Neither Mitt Romney nor Rick Santorum seems to have what it takes to win the White House.
The thing is, Americans don’t like Obama either. His average Gallup approval rating for February was 45 percent, and a full 50 percent of Americans believe his presidency has been a failure:
Obama’s job approval in February exceeds the lows seen last summer, when his monthly approval rating dipped to 41 percent from August through October. That followed a slide from 50 percent in May after the successful U.S. military mission in Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden. However, despite the recent improvement in his score, it has yet to recover to the level seen at the start of 2011, when 49 percent approved and 43 percent disapproved.
Apart from the rally in approval after the bin Laden mission, the last time Obama’s monthly approval rating averaged 50 percent or better was two years ago, in February 2010.
To put this in an historical context, every president who has won a second term (since Gallup began polling) has had an average approval rating above 50 percent by the February before the election. According to Gallup, “no elected president from Dwight Eisenhower through George W. Bush saw his approval rating drop below 50 percent for this long leading up to his re-election year.”
There’s a dramatic disconnect between this reality and the confidence we’re seeing from Democrats, who believe they already have next November wrapped up. With independents saying Obama’s presidency has been a failure, 53 percent to 42 percent, the president has a long way to go toward convincing Americans he deserves a second term. But if his own party thinks his reelection is already a given, Obama’s may have a hard time raising money, turning out volunteers and getting supporters out to the polls.
Republicans have spent the last year vetting and attacking each other, while Obama has been able to stay out of the fray. Despite that, his approval rating has shown little improvement. Once the general election begins and the GOP candidate gets to fully focus on attacking Obama’s record, things can only get worse for him.
He's beatable. Assuming Romney can sputter across the finish line for the nomination without angering social conservatives so much they stay at home in November, he will then become the conservative choice. Maybe not their first chice, but better than the alternative. He'll still win the South if he can do this. Meanwhile, more moderate voters in swing states have already demonstrated that they liked Obama better when he had no track record. Now he has one.
As for Obama being historically unpopular … it's worth noting that the Gipper himself was faring no better than Obama until about one year before the 1984 elections. There is no evidence early opinion polls can tell reveal much about a candidate's eventual fate (=Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were both well above 50% only elevent months before losing reelection). I would closer attention to Obama's job approval from May 2012 onwards. Recent history suggests the difference between a narrow reelection loss (Gerald Ford in '76) and a narrow win (George W. Bush in '04) is somewhere in the 45-46% Gallup approval range. That's precisely where Obama is today. He should be fine if he can further increase his job approval to 48-49% by November. n nMARCU$
I remember the remarkable turn-around after Reagan was in office 2 years (without incessantly complaining or blaming Carter). Suddenly, my liberal Democrat Dad stopped complaining about inflation, suddenly the neighborhood stopped worrying about unemployment and lay-offs. Everyone was happier. Everyone. So, I find it very odd that you say "one year before 1984 elections" when it is now less than one year before 2012 elections, everyone is STILL worried about unemployment, suffering inflation, and gas prices are depressing everyone. What delusional happy-ville do you live in that 300+million Americans aren't living?
As bad as Romney is on some of his conservative credentials I am encouraged by his teams willingness to fight hard and hit their opponents (yes sometime below the belt, guess where Obama is going to hit). I very much doubt Romney will go as soft as McCain in the general vis a vi Obama's past associations and the PAC's will definately go after Obama with everything from Ayers to Wright and now Bell plus the Pali terrorist (can't remember his name) … Romney can hammer Obama on policy and the PAC's can hammer him on character …
Naturally the msm is manipulating the polls, rarely do they show their breakdown anymore. Gallup, Real Clear Politics, and Rasmussen are the only outliers one can depend on. Democrats know this, they are attempting to demoralise the conservatives. nSome of our betters join in the illusion that Obama wins next November; my personal opinion is that that is not thecase, americans are disgusted, and appalled what they see. Liberals make up only 23% of the electorate.
Liberals may, indeed, make up 23% of the electorate. But that same electorate gave Obama 53% of the vote. And Libs in Congress hold far more than 23%. The fact is that lots of folks tell pollsters they are conservative, but vote on emotion, not fact, and so vote for Libs.
Couple of problems with the historical analysis. n n1. At no time has the ENTIRE press been so in-the-tank for a president. Even when we had warring press in the 18th and 19th Centuries, each side had their own. With ABCNBCCNNCBSMSNBC & WAPOLATNYT etc., the vast majority of media is pro-re-election. And it's the media most American voters rely on for education about politicians. n n2. Those who voted on white guilt rather than accomplishment are the ONLY reason Obama was elected. It seems irrational to assume those voters now will vote AGAINST the first black president. He's only president due to his skin color. Not factoring that into the current calculation may be politically correct, but it results in numbers lacking credibility.
possibly, but most people can only take guilt so long. After awhile, regardless of race, people who were hired out of guilt and proven to be incompetent get fired. I can't imagine very many guilted people who see the incompetence of Obama will ignore it, especially with white men fed up (see Sean Trende's work).
In a fair and rational world Obama should suffer a humiliating defeat, winning perhaps only CA and N.Y. nHowever even though many liberals are aware of his failings they may well vote for him again because nthey have bought all the myths regarding those evil and immoral Republicans whose election to the WH nwould mean grandma won't get her meds or her operation, abortions will once again go into the back nalleys and people will again be sleeping under bridges. This will NOT be a referendum on either Obama or the Republican nominee. It will be a referendum on the wisdom or the stupidity of the American voter. As someone wrote recently, if you voted for Obama in 2008 to show you weren't a racist, vote Republican in 2012 to show you're not an idiot. n
As you noted in your previous post, there are those in the MSM who are trying to minimize Romney's strength. That's their job; they're protecting the President. You thought it was to report accurately and fairly?