Here’s more evidence suggesting that the New York Times “trend” story on how women are bolting from the GOP and flocking to the Obama campaign was complete fantasy. And the latest contradictions come from the New York Times’ own poll:
In the head-to-head matchups, Mr. Obama also maintained much of the advantage he had built in the last year among important constituencies, including women, although he lost some support among women over the past month, even as the debate raged over birth control insurance coverage.
Mr. Obama appears to be retaining much of his gains among important demographic groups, erasing inroads that Republicans made in 2010, especially among women. But his falling approval rating in the last month extended to his handling of both the economy and foreign policy, the poll found.
“He lost some support among women” is apparently the New York Times’ nice way of saying Obama’s approval rating dropped 12 points among women during the past month, from 53 percent to 41 percent. Needless to say, the Democratic Party’s “war on women” rhetoric doesn’t seem to be working:
In recent weeks, there has been much debate over the government’s role in guaranteeing insurance coverage for contraception, including for those who work for religious organizations. The poll found that women were split as to whether health insurance plans should cover the costs of birth control and whether employers with religious objections should be able to opt out.
Poll respondents said 51 percent to 40 percent that companies should be allowed to opt out for religious/moral reasons. Women said companies should be allowed to opt out, 46 percent to 44 percent.
Those numbers are even more favorable to conservatives when you specifically ask whether religiously-affiliated employers, like schools and hospitals, should be forced to provide birth control coverage. Poll respondents said these institutions should be allowed to opt out, 57 percent to 36 percent. Women said these institutions should be allowed to opt out, 53 percent to 38 percent.
It sounds like the Obama administration has seriously miscalculated its “war on women” strategy. Either women are in favor of religious opt-out rules, as the Times poll suggests (and in that case, are possibly offended by the way the Obama administration has handled the controversy); or, women care so little about this issue that they haven’t even been paying close attention to the debate. Even if the latter is true, that doesn’t mean this strategy was cost-free. According to the Times poll, Obama has further alienated religious voters, and received no political gain with women in exchange. His support has dropped to 37 percent with Catholics, 26 percent with white Protestants and 18 percent with white Evangelical Christians.
As Scott Adams once quipped, 'If you want a straight fit, obtain only two data points…' n nRegardless of whether you love Obama or loathe him, you can't just cherry-pick polls that suit your prejudices… There have been four polls within the past two days. Gallup (whose polls for some strange reason has been harder on Obama than the others) has Obama up by six, 49%-43% whereas Rasmussen has him trailing by only 2% after being down by ten during the weekend. Finally, ABC News/Wash Post claims 46% of Americans approve of Obama's job performance vs. 50% who disapprove. The overall trend since early February is Obama's job approval has DECREASED BY ONE PERCENT according to Nate Silver. Big deal… n nOpinion polls will become increasingly accurate predictors of the final result as we move closer to Nov.6 but they are essentially meaningless at this stage. n nMARCU$
It seems that where Obama is with women is where he’s more or less at generally in is approval rating.
I saw the issue framed recently as whether the Rs are waging a war against women or whether Obama is waging a war against women’s pocket books.
Women say a lot. It is how they vote that counts. Everybody in the GOP says they are pro Israel, but how many conservative Christians would Israel really be able to depend on if conservative Christians had real power in congress? They didn't create hate crime laws to make it easier to prosecute anti semitic liberals.