For the past three years, figures in America’s foreign policy establishment as well as media kibbitzers who knew little about Israel had a constant refrain: Tzipi Livni, the glamorous head of the Kadmia Party, should replace Benjamin Netanyahu as Israel’s prime minister. In the aftermath of Netanyahu’s election in February 2009, the Obama administration openly plotted to topple the new leader and replace him with Livni, whom they viewed as more pliable on the Palestinian issue. Once that ploy failed as President Obama’s attacks on Netanyahu only strengthened him at home, Netanyahu’s American critics could only sit back and wait patiently until Livni defeated him on her own. But the wait is going to be a lot longer than many in Washington thought.
Last night, Livni lost her perch as opposition leader as the members of her rapidly shrinking party rejected her in favor of former General Shaul Mofaz in a primary to determine who will top the party’s list in the next election that is currently scheduled for October 2013. That Livni, who was feted abroad and was prominently placed on lists of the world’s most important women, was defeated at all will come as a shock to her foreign admirers. But this was no ordinary defeat. The lady who only a couple of weeks ago was lauded as Israel’s “voice of reason” in a fawning piece by John Avlon in the Daily Beast, was slaughtered by Mofaz, 62-38 percent. The question now is whether Americans who were under the delusion that Livni represented a viable alternative to Netanyahu’s popular government will get the message.
The Kadima that Mofaz will lead into the next election is vastly diminished from the juggernaut formed by Ariel Sharon when he left Likud in the wake of the withdrawal from Gaza in 2005. Sharon skimmed the biggest opportunists in Labor and Likud to create what many imagined to be the first viable centrist political grouping in the country’s history. But after its bigger-than-life leader was removed from the scene by a stroke, Kadima was seen to be an empty shell whose only purpose was to find government posts for its leading personalities. Ehud Olmert led it to an election victory in 2006 in the immediate aftermath of Sharon’s illness but was soon proved to be hopelessly over his head.
Livni served as his foreign minister and hoped to replace him after the disastrous Lebanon war but was outmaneuvered by Olmert. That was an early sign she had no capacity for leadership. She got her chance to run for prime minister in 2009. As a fresh face with no corruption charges currently pending against her, Livni ran a good campaign and enabled Kadima to win the most seats. However Netanyahu’s coalition of center-right parties far eclipsed its total. But rather than serve under another rival, she made the fatal mistake of leading Kadima into the opposition. The problem was that Livni and Kadima lacked any coherent vision of a different approach to Israel’s problems. Though Americans who disliked Netanyahu saw her as the pro-peace alternative, Israelis were aware her views on the issues were almost indistinguishable from those of the Likud leader. Her only real disagreement with him was based in her conviction that she ought to be Israel’s prime minister, a point on which few of her countrymen, even the members of her own party, agreed.
Some Israeli pundits think the selection of Mofaz is a blow to Netanyahu, as he was obviously relishing a chance to trounce her at the polls. But the former general will be another disappointment to American Bibi-haters. The gruff former military man won’t win the hearts of Westerners longing for a weak Israeli leader. He will try to carve out a position slightly to the left of Netanyahu, but Israelis understand the Palestinians have no interest in negotiating a two-state solution under any terms they can live with. Though he may prevent Kadima from collapsing at the next ballot, the party is facing stiff competition from a newly revived Labor and another new centrist party led by Yair Lapid. Polls show that none have a ghost’s chance of beating Netanyahu and Likud.
Livni will, no doubt, have a successful career ahead of her speaking to liberal American Jewish groups for large speaking fees much as her former boss Olmert got cheers at the J Street conference last week that the former PM, who is a pariah in Israel, could never hope to get at home. But the lesson here is that Israelis who are more popular in Washington than in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv are not to be taken seriously.
It will be interesting to see the NYT scream and pout that Mofaz doesn’t understand what the Iranians are saying seeing how he’s a native Farsi speaker.
and now, for the ultimate triumph; retire Obana!
Jonathan, you may have assumed that everybody knows what a crook olmert is. You indicated that when you wrote that olmert is a "pariah" in Israel. Of course, for decent people, olmert is a pariah, that's why I don't know why Jstreet invited him. One would think that they would have wanted to keep up appearances of decency at least. Anyhow, maybe your mind was too much focused on other matters to explain WHY olmert is a pariah. He's a shameless chiseler, notorious for double dipping. That is, when invited to speak abroad he demanded full travel expenses from two different entities. When you're supposed to be speaking on behalf of charities, that indicates basic greed and dishonesty. nLastly, although praised as pro-peace by Jstreet and the Administration and its press flunkeys, olmert fought two wars in three years. Of course, I blame Hamas and Hizbullah, as well as their supporters, Iran and Syria, for those two wars. But they probably thought that they could get away with wars while olmert was PM. nSpeaking of the 2006 Lebanon war, Livni's performance as foreign minister was disastrous. She was totally in water over her head at the negotiations at the UN in NY over ending the war. SC res 1701 that ended that war was a disaster and we see that Hizbullah rearmed after the war and now has more and better missiles than before. She is to blame in large part.
Wasn't it Sharon himself who said that Kadima was a chad pa'ami party? Chad pa'ami [literally "for one time use" ] is the Hebrew term for disposable products like paper plates or plastic spoons.
It will be no surprise to those who follow Israeli media that during the last primaries Mme. Livni was involved with very unethical vote purchase in the Arab sector, based on cash for votes. her method is somewhat different than the Obama way of strong arming voters in the Texas primaries. nevertheless it was criminal. Mofaz learned and doubled down, buying the Druze and the Haredim, the types who will never vote for him, during he general elections. Both are seedy, sinister and two faced, neither is a leader, nor can they inflict a sever blow to Bibi, who is no angle either. Elections in Israel is a dirty business and if anyone has a memory, the trail of dishonest and manipulated primaries within the "Labor Party" should give the reader some sense of how criminal and corrupt the "democratic process" is, was and will be! Most Americans are clueless about the way in which contractors consolidate votes in israel, it is no different than the wholesale market for fruit produce. Once Lapid Jr. gets in, it will make the scene a bit more spicy.
"PRO PEACE"? nBibi and Moshe Sharett (1953-55) are the ONLY Israeli prime ministers, who never had a war during their rule. n nIT TAKES THE LEFT TO MAKE A WAR: n nWars under a Right/Likud government: n1 "Peace of the Galilee" Lebanon 1982 (Begin) n nWars under the Left/Labor/Kadima: n1 Independence 1948. (Ben Gurion) n2 SInai 1956 (Ben Gurion) n3 SIx Days 1967 (Levi Eshkol) n4 Attrition 1969 (Golda Meir) n5 Yom Kippur 1973 (Golda Meir) n nThe first Right/Likud government was elected in 1976. The list from this point becomes more relevant: n n6 Litani Campaign (Lebanon) 1978 (Rabin) n7 Grapes of Wrath-Lebanon 1996 (Peres) n8 "Second Intifada" 2000 the only war without a Hebrew name, tho some call it the "Oslo War. Over 1300 Israeli deaths, mainly civilians. "Defensive Shield in 2002 (Jenin) was just one operation within the war. (The war broke out under Barak) n9 Lebanon 2006 (Olmert) n10 Cast Lead – Gaza 2008/9 (Olmert) n nThe First Intifada 1987 was under a joint Right/Left Unity government. Shamir was PM and Rabin was the Defense Minister. In reality, it was a highly publicized police operation, and not a war.
Anyone who saw Olmert barking at JPac, D.C, last week could better understand what a disappointment he and many of the Irgun children are not only to the good name of the "Fighting Family " of the Irgun, but to the Israeli public in general. With the exception of MK Beni Begin, who is slightly touched by a sense of Biblical destiny, but is one of the few with a strong sense of morality, above reproach, the rest are basically creatures that belong to Blackie Lagoon. The crooked son of Ms. Geoula Cohen, the hero of the Acco prison breakout, is as corrupt and dishonest as they come in Chicago, he used to bust Arab students with Lieberman with metal chains in the campus of Tel-Aviv University during the 70's. Olmert operates on bakshish up front, likely will be convicted and join the convicted X "President" Shitrit, doing time in Maasiyahoo Prison. Livni, the "Princess" of "The Fighting Families" proved to be a monumental disappointment to the new generation of secular Israelis. She was supposed to bridge the devide between Israelis whose background is Labor-Socialists and Likud-Irgun-Beytar. She turned out to be hot air. Beni Begin (a trained Geologist), is a true pehnomenon, whose ideology is difficult to buy but his decency as a person is unquestionable. MK Meridor, whose father was an early financial giant in the 50's and Minister Landau, are both inconsequential, yet their parents were true Cadres. Thei parents were real Mentch who used to bring their children every Saturday to visit Menahem Begin at his tiny ground floor appartment near the Mann Auditorium. Above him, Chief Justice, Asher Grunis was growing up. Across the street Ambassador Gilerman was raised. Yet these current Likood, Kadima freeloaders, (not Beni Begin) seem to have taken everything for granted. They were slipped into the system with their future secure. No matter how one looks at this pathetic elections at Kadima, (Forward, looks like it could go farther backward, it is an empty shell, hollow entity, populated by small time apartchniks) it is one rotten affair, and with the renewed stirring of the Israeli public facing increasing economic hardhships, (rising oil, food prices) constant agitation by outside NGO's, (NIF) endless streams of Soros NI$, it is difficult to predict what could happen. The former , Voice of Israel reporter Ms. Yachimoch, unattractive a lifetime freeloading Socialist hopes to become a Prime Minister, on what basis? This party once had nearly 45 seats, now in the teens, an empty shell, with a declining number of seats, The son of the renowned polemicist Tommy Lapid, is planning to run one more center – left- party, there is Meretz, the half baked "Peace Camp" and several other secular concoctions, It is hard to buy any one analysis of what will happen there. Other than Bibi, who I personally do not exactly adore, the other wannabes are tiny roaches. (My apologies to those who fell I am offending the innocent roaches)