Earlier today, Seth commented on the results from a poll conducted by the liberal-leaning Public Religion Research Institute that contained some mixed results for the Obama administration. As Seth noted, the survey showed that even among a liberal population, the president didn’t find broad support for his policies on Israel. But, predictably, the New York Times is spinning the poll in a very different way. The headline in the paper’s political blog The Caucus is simply: “In Poll, Jewish Voters Overwhelmingly Support Obama.” The Times reports that it finds:
Support for Mr. Obama is still higher among Jews than among the general electorate, with 62 percent of Jewish voters saying they would like to see him elected, and 30 percent saying they preferred the Republican candidate.
The Times interprets this result as meaning:
The results cast doubt on the claim that Mr. Obama has alienated a significant swath of Jewish voters because of his rocky relationship with Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
But does it really? Considering the president won a whopping 78 percent of the Jewish vote in 2008, even if he does wind up getting 62 percent that would mean a loss of a fifth of the Jewish support he got four years ago.
To place this result in perspective, it should be remembered that it has been 24 years since a Republican got as much as 30 percent of the Jewish vote. If Mitt Romney, the likely GOP nominee, equals or tops that figure while the Democrats’ share declines that far, Jewish Republicans would consider it a major victory. Moreover, as I pointed out in the March issue of COMMENTARY, such a swing of Jewish votes could conceivably make a difference in determining the outcome of the election should states such as Pennsylvania, New Jersey and especially Florida go down to the wire.
If Obama does lose a fifth of his Jewish support when compared to four years ago, what other explanation can there be for such a result other than the fact that many Jewish Democrats are rightly concerned about the administration’s policy of hostility toward Israel during its first three years? While the current Jewish charm offensive may help shore up the president’s backing in this overwhelmingly Democratic demographic, if this poll is correct and the Republicans make such large gains, the most likely reason for a shift in the Jewish vote would be Israel. Indeed, given the fact that the poll shows Jews having grave doubts about Obama’s attitude toward Israel, the idea that it would not be responsible for the shrinkage of the Democrats’ share of the Jewish vote makes no sense.
While there is no doubt there is virtually nothing Obama could do to prevent the majority of Jews from voting for him, even this liberal poll illustrates that Democrats are going into the fall with much lower expectations than they might have had four years ago.
Weak tea, indeed.
He's a lock to get 70% of the Jewish vote. Romney wants to eliminate Social Security and Medicare and eliminate a woman's right to choose. Obama may even get a bump and get 80%. Too many Jews have wised up about Israel to consider voting for a President with neocons whispering in his ear.
um, no. not true. and no, Mr. "Israeli" Jews don't hate Israel–you do. n nWhat a maroon.
Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha! n n"What a maroon" just about covers any possible response.
He wants to eliminate a woman's "right to choose?" A right to choose what, exactly?
You are delusional.
There's not a chance in hell Obama will get less than two-thirds of the Jewish vote in 2012. n nThe "whopping 78 percent of the Jewish vote" that Tobin says Obama won in 2008 needs to be put in perspective. n nJohn Kerry won 76% of the Jewish vote in 2004. n nAl Gore won 79% of the Jewish vote in 2000. n nBill Clinton won 78% of the Jewish vote in 1996 and 80% in 1992. n nThe lowest any Democratic presidential candidate has done with the Jewish vote since FDR carried 90% of the Jewish vote in 1944 is Adlai Stevenson's 60% in 1956. n nEven the pitiful George McGovern carried 65% of the Jewish vote in 1972. n nSo it bears repeating: Barack Obama will never lose more than one-third of the Jewish vote. The only way he gets less than 67% of the Jewish vote is if he flies to Israel and takes a dump at the base of the Wailing Wall. And even then, he'll still carry well over 50%. n n
Your forget Jimmy Carter, whose second term we are now living through in the person of BH Obama. Carter got 71% of the Jewish vote in 1976 — but only 45% in 1980. Even Democratic Jews know how to spot a failure who hates Israel.
You're right. I stand corrected. n nIn a three-way race with a Democratic incumbent who was the most unpopular president running for re-election since Herbert Hoover, Jewish voters would only give the Democrat a slim plurality.
"The only way he gets less than 67% of the Jewish vote is if he flies to Israel and takes a dump at the base of the Wailing Wall. And even then, he'll still carry well over 50%." (Pincher Martin) n nToo true, and I'd add, "….whilst sporting a Hitler moustache, bellowing the Horst Wessel song and eating live Harp Seal pups ." n nAnyway, do the loyal Jewish Obamanoids know yet that even with a majority of the Jews voting for him, it will the Jews who will get the blame and be branded as racists if he loses?
Grandma lit candles to St. Eleanor. Mitt's the ultimate shaygetz. QED.
Well…if there is an Israeli military action in Iran and if Obama comes through for Israel, with respect to all of the various criteria, in good faith…and we will know it if he does, for sure. Then, his numbers will be high. How high, 80%. On the other hand, if he continues his blundering with blinders on, the sabotage of Israel’s carefully drawn out best case scenario, then he will lose not only The Jewish voter but The American voter as well. This is what I expect. The ball is now in Israel’s court to convince the world to nudge The US to finally rid of this pending calamitous chain reaction.
Romney has an opportunity now to protect Israel by lighting a bon fire proximal to Obama’s pudendals.
If El Hefe Obama wants to win, he should worry about some group other than the tiny sliver of Jews in America. I for one am sick to death of hearing the implication from the left that if Obama Gaius Maximus Caesar Agrippa loses this election that somehow, the Jews are to blame. I won't be shocked if the NYT's Tom Friedman calls for a Kristalnacht, I'm simply fed up with hearing the threat.
I think Obama will get 50% of the Jewish vote. Obama changed the US policy which interpreted UN Resolution 242 "withdrawal from territories" to "all the territories" when he said Israel should start negotiating from the 67 borders. That gave support to the new Palestinian premise that they would get all the West Bank including all of East Jerusalem ( and the Temple Mount, The Western Wall, the Mount of Olives, the City of David, Maleh Adumim, Ariel, Gush Etzion, Har Homa, Gilo etc etc) n nBush had specifically written that the major settlement blocs would be retained by Israel. Obama overturned that. n nI personally agree with most of his policy, including healthcare and gay marriage, but because of the above, I question if he really would bomb Iran when Iran gets its Nuclear bomb. n nAs a liberal it is very hard to vote for Romney, but I think I will have to do it.