While the Obama administration appears to be convincing itself that there’s nothing wrong with the Muslim Brotherhood acquiring a monopoly on power in Egypt, it looks as if that country’s military is panicking about the prospect. Though the Egyptian presidential race–in which the Brotherhood’s candidate and one from an even more extreme Islamist party are the favorites–may be in a state of flux, the decision of a former key member of the army leadership to enter the race may be a sign the generals are far from confident about what may be about to happen in Cairo.
The entry of Omar Suleiman, who served as head of military intelligence during the regime of Hosni Mubarak, into Egypt’s presidential sweepstakes adds one more element of uncertainty in a situation that may be about to unravel. Suleiman, who reportedly is still close with the army’s ruling council, is a much-hated figure among both secular liberals and the Islamists for his role in suppressing dissent under the Mubarak dictatorship. Even though observers give him little chance of winning, the decision of the army to have one of their own get into the race may show just how scared they are of the Brotherhood and its allies imposing its beliefs on the country. The fact that President Obama isn’t scared too may be even more frightening to those Egyptians wondering what their fate will be once the Brotherhood assumes control of the presidency as well as the parliament and the constituent assembly writing a new constitution.
As Eric Trager writes in The New Republic, the Brotherhood’s Washington offensive has convinced many in Washington that there is nothing to fear from their drive to obtain absolute power in Cairo. But for the military, which seemed for a while to be confident it could go on governing Egypt in partnership with the Brotherhood without allowing the latter to enact fundamental changes in society, the group’s behavior in recent months is alarming. Though it has presented a smiling face of tolerance to American journalists, as Trager points out, there has been no alteration of their ideology or of their determination to transform Egypt into a theocracy.
As for Suleiman, he can expect especially rough treatment from the Brotherhood if he actually gets on the ballot for the May election. As the Associated Press pointed out, the Islamists were quick to brand him not so much as the official torturer of the Mubarak era but as the man whose task it was to manage the country’s relationships with the United States and Israel. The Brotherhood’s mocking welcome to the Suleiman candidacy was to post a picture of him in which he is posed against the backdrop of an Israeli flag. Those administration officials confident that a Brotherhood-run Egypt will keep the peace treaty with Israel or remain an ally of the United States (for which they receive more than $1 billion in annual U.S. aid) may eventually have a lot of explaining to do.
I'm not convinced the Muslim Brotherhood is interested in retaining the $2 billion/yr in US aid because it's not obvious they're interested in moving Egypt forward as a nation. If anything, making Egypt implode in poverty, hunger and the requisite civil violence serves their aims better. These are not men who worry about quality of life in this word. At least not in how it impinges on people who are not them. Moreover, it seems, at least to me, that Obama will shovel money to Egypt even if the Islamists don't want it, so that he can prance in front of the Arab nations about what a great friend he is. All the time the Muslim Brotherhood will take his money and claim to condemn it at the same time. n nRemember that one of the first orders of business of every Arab Tyranny is to create some kind of 'Republican Guard', a special military with the best equipment and best trained troops hand selected….to train their guns inward at their own people not outward against enemies real or perceived. This is where the Muslim Brotherhood will use their filthy lucre from the Great Satan. And with their economy in free fall and the prospect of famine, a collapse of the economy and such, the Muslim Brotherhood will need that Obama supplied gear to keep the dirty screaming hordes in line. Blaming Israel and the Jews in general for all of it and outsourcing a war against the Jews to Hamas will suffice. Hell, they can tell their own people that Tel Aviv is in flames, like Nasser did. None of it has to be true or accurate. It simply has to distract them long enough to kill a sufficient number of malcontents and a few of the the politically unreliable. It will be fascinating to watch the Muslim Brotherhood embark on a dirty war like Mubarek did, against them, where hundreds or even thousands of men and women are 'disappeared' every year. Will they label them all "Zionist Spies"? Well locally and domestically they will, but not so much at their state visits to the White House.
If only it were true that their guns will only be turned inwards. That would be a great relief. But with every Republican Guard comes its hydra-like Qods Forces that have a very external focus. n nYou may be right that Egypt, unlike Iran with its oil revenues, will collapse into economic ruin. This was happening under Mubarak anyway. But as you correctly note, the Islamists don't care how much the people suffer, so the money will be found somewhere (Iran? Turkey?) to fund plenty of terror operations against Israel. n nIf there is any silver lining, it may be that a takeover by the MB will almost certainly result in a rapid decay in Egypt's overall military power. With Syria consumed with civil war, that creates an almost unprecedented and new situation for Israel: no, strong military powers on any of its borders. Of course, there is Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, but these are very different threats than having two, large armies on your border. Hopefully Israel can make the adjustments to deal with this evolving situation.
Beyond caring what happens to Egypt, as long as their weapons are turned inwards. And if they are not, Sinai, with all its riches and potential, will return to Israel, hopefully this time forever. n nShould never have been returned. It cost thousands of lives, and was traded for a document only as good as Arab promises. n nHad Begin insisted on returning Gaza with it, that might have mitigated the damage somewhat.
" One man , one vote , one time " cf.Iran. Just one more Islamist police state .
What if Egypt was to join the Russian/Chinese camp? nLook like Egypt will become the Sunny version of Iran thanks to Pr. Obama and Mubarak.