A funny thing happened recently on the road to China’s supposedly inexorable rise to global power. Actually, a couple of funny things.
First and most prominent has been the scandal swirling around Bo Xilai, onetime Politburo member and party boss in Chonqqing, who has now been removed from power–and from sight–because of a variety of corruption and abuse-of-power allegations. The latest twist is the news that his wife, Gu Kailai, is a suspect in the murder of the mysterious upper-class British expatriate and fixer Neil Heywood, a character who seems to have wandered straight out of a Graham Greene novel. The whole affair is causing major embarrassment to the ruling class in China for the way it brings into the open the shady machinations and rich deals that are a regular part of life for Communist mandarins. While Bo Xilai’s fall is being used to spread the message that no one is above the law, in fact no one knows exactly what led to his downfall; there is widespread suspicion it was not the result of his crimes per se, whatever they may have been, but rather of a murky behind-the-scenes power struggle whose features can be glimpsed only dimly by outsiders.
The second news item of note is this standoff in disputed waters of the South China Sea between a Philippine Navy gunboat and two Chinese “surveillance” ships. It seems that the Philippine warship had arrived to discover Chinese fishing vessels operating in waters claimed by Manila. Filipino sailors found plenty of illegally harvested clams, corals and other sea treasures aboard the ships before being blocked from further access by the arrival of two Chinese “surveillance” ships–presumably unmarked vessels belonging to the People’s Liberation Army Navy.
Why are these two news items so important? Because both cast doubts about whether China’s rise is as inevitable as the pundits have it.
The Bo Xilai affair exposes the fragility of a regime that does not rest on the consent of the governed. The exposure of corrupt politicians is always traumatic even in a democratic system such as ours; they are far more serious in a one-party dictatorship such as China where civil unrest is never too far beneath the surface. The Communist Party justifies its monopoly on power by claiming that democracy is far too messy for a giant developing country like China and that wise, if unelected, mandarins can deliver economic growth and good government better than politicians beholden to grubby political parties. But scandals like the one swirling around Bo Xilai cast serious doubt on that propaganda line and in fact undermine the very legitimacy of the entire government–something that could not be said of even the most serious scandals (e.g., Watergate) in the United States.
Meanwhile, the South China Sea standoff is yet another indication of how China’s increasing assertiveness is alarming its neighbors and drawing them closer into an alliance with the United States. U.S.-Filipino relations are closer than they have been since the closing of the U.S. military bases in that country in the early 1990s–and we have China to thank for that. The same is true of U.S. relations with Singapore, Australia, India, and other neighbors of China–including even Vietnam and Burma. Thus China, like other dictatorial powers that aspired to great power (e.g., Wilhelmine Germany or Imperial Japan), seems to be creating with its own actions a coalition to keep it in check–even as its ruling infrastructure is showing fresh signs of fragility.
Does this really look like a country that is about to overtake the U.S. for global dominance? If it does,we will have only ourselves to blame, because, given China’s inherent weaknesses, our fall can only be the result of our own errors, such as failing to gain control of runaway entitlement spending or letting our best-in-the-world military atrophy due to excessive budget cuts.
Good article – until the author gets to blaming all on our 'large entitlements' and 'small military budget'. Our entitlement programs are wonderful in concept, but need more monitoring of fraud and much other streamlining such as Social Security input moneys staying there and not being ripped off by Congress for other uses. The same can be said for Medicare and the military budget as well. I could also add the 'Justice' system for this administration.
Both of those issues — runaway entitlement spending and a weakened military — are threats to our stability and security.
We have a lot of work to do. China shows us what can be accomplished with a docile labor force, streamlined taxation, and a pro-growth philosophy. n nWe are not a docile labor force, never have been, so we can't become China, nor should we try. But we should strive toward a true meritocracy and away from a socialistic system of mediocre education for all, mediocre jobs for all, and so forth. n nChina has another huge problem and that is its population. Undoubtedly Beijing regards it as too large; they need only the 300 million to 400 million people in the coastal cities, plus another 100 million or so in the rural areas. There's a surplus 800 million people in China, all those mouths to feed and potential recruits for an uprising. n nTheir one child policy of recent decades has resulted in a generation of pampered children, a shortage of young women thanks to selective abortion, and an impending population implosion. It is likely that thirty years from now, there will be more births in the U.S. than in China, and the U.S may actually exceed China in population by century's end, if immigration and birth patterns continue. n nIn the 1980s, we were all expecting Japan to take over the world, and then something happened–they stopped having children, got a bit lazy and complacent, and suffered a massive real estate bubble which caused the "10 lost years". China could turn out the same. But we in the U.S. should not become complacent as a result; we should get our own house in order.
Perhaps Pr. O wants to weakened the so called “white imperialism” by decreasing the US defense and arm forces expenses and by placing US arm forces “under the control” of the UN (Muslim majority).
It is actually staggering to me how many are getting government assistance who can work. I see it all the time, so our entitlement program needs a real evaluation in so many ways. Regarding China, yes, I find the more they assert themselves, the more friends they lose. I truly hope that one day the PLA shoots all the leaders of China and then, hopefully, turns it over to the people to elect their leaders. I really do dream of the day to hear of a military coup that wipes out the CCP once and for all and allows the people to decide who represents them. n
The antidote to China's ascendancy has been quietly in the works for several decades already: robotics. Specifically, advanced manufacturing robotics which are under development. While it's usually silly to make overly optimistic linear projections about rise of nations, especially fragile tyrannies like China, predictions about technological advances are usually too conservative. North America's manufacturing capacity can easily resurge again with the appearancre of progressively cheaper robotic systems. The only way to arrest this development is through manufactured "concerns" leading to strict regulations which would hamper access to affordable energy. Concidentally, the global warming / climate change / "green" technology / sustainability drive tries to do just that.
Mr. Boot gets it exactly right in his conclusion. Will China implode due to demographics, unsustainable repression and belligerency before the U.S. implodes from unsustainable debt levels and an increasingly violent Left that cannot accept the inevitable end of socialist hand outs? It almost seems as if the world is on a collision course for complete and total chaos. n nOn the other hand, Canada and Australia seem to be doing nicely.