Mitt Romney’s middling likeability ratings have provoked a deluge of analysis about whether this weakness is fatal and advice on how he can overcome the likeability gap between him and President Obama. But there’s no reason to think Romney’s likeability ratings at this point in the election are any predictor of his success next November, or even a sure sign of what his likeability ratings will be later in the election season.
As Nate Silver finds, low initial personal favorables haven’t doomed past presidents, and Romney’s numbers are on par with Bill Clinton’s at the same point of the race in 1992:
1) Mr. Romney’s mediocre favorability ratings at this early stage of the race are no death sentence. There have been clear reversals in favorability ratings in the recent past once the general election campaign got under way, such as in 1988 and 1992. At least one recent candidate (Mr. Clinton in 1992) won his election with similarly mediocre early favorability ratings. …
2) The favorability deficit between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama is more likely to be meaningful the longer it persists. If, for instance, we still see this favorability deficit in July — and certainly if we see it in September or October — the odds are fairly good that Mr. Obama will perform more strongly than the economic fundamentals alone would dictate and could win an election that he is otherwise “supposed” to lose.
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