The concern for President Obama has never been that he’ll lose the young vote, just that he may not win by as large of a margin as he did in 2008, and that turnout among young voters may be lower this time around. Today’s Gallup found that Obama leads Romney by 35 percent with 18 to 29-year-olds, but most of them either aren’t registered or aren’t committed to voting next November:
It’s clear at this point that Obama maintains the decisive edge when young voters are asked whom they support for president, as he did in 2008. Voters aged 18 to 29 in Gallup’s most recent five-day average, April 20-24, support Obama over Romney by 35 percentage points, 64 percent to 29 percent, and — compared with older age groups — have been disproportionately supportive of Obama since Gallup’s tracking began on April 11, albeit by differing margins. Obama’s lead is five and four percentage points, respectively, among those 30 to 49 and 50 to 64, while Romney leads by 12 points among those 65 and older. Overall, for the April 20-24 five-day period, Obama leads by six points, 49 percent to 43 percent.
These numbers are similar to the 2008 exit polling, which showed young voters choosing Obama over John McCain, 66 percent to 32 percent. But are there any indications that turnout will be lower this year? Maybe. Back in October 2008, 78 percent of 18 to 29-year-olds told Gallup that they were registered to vote. In contrast, just 60 percent of this group is currently registered to vote, according to Gallup’s latest.
Obviously it’s still early, and the get-out-the-vote efforts haven’t really kicked off yet. But time may be on Romney’s side in some ways, as well. Young voters are less engaged politically, and it’s promising for the GOP that Romney’s support with young voters at the very start of the general election is similar to McCain’s support the month before Election Day. Romney has plenty of time to make his case to young voters and potentially siphon off support from Obama.