The United Nations has hardly been a cheerleader for the U.S.-led NATO mission in Afghanistan. In fact, UN representatives have often been skeptical of the methods and tactics employed by American troops. So it is particularly noteworthy that even the UN is recording a big drop—21 percent–in civilian deaths in the first four months of 2012 compared with the same period a year ago. This tallies with NATO figures showing a drop in insurgent attacks—evidence that the post-2009 surge is working.
Unfortunately, just as American troops and their allies are making demonstrable progress, their political masters are preparing to pull them out. French troops are due to leave this year and more than 20,000 American troops are due to leave in September with more, perhaps, to follow before long. Western politicians would be foolish, now that the coalition actually has the initiative and the Taliban are on their heels, to let up on the pressure. But that is precisely what may happen, allowing the Taliban, Haqqanis, et al., to pull a political victory out of their battlefield defeats.
"So it is particularly noteworthy that even the UN is recording a big drop—21 percent–in civilian deaths in the first four months of 2012 compared with the same period a year ago. This tallies with NATO figures showing a drop in insurgent attacks—evidence that the post-2009 surge is working." n nActually it's a 36% drop in deaths, 898 in 2011 to 579 this year. The 21% is the drop for combined casualtiies, both dead and wounded. n nIt and the NATO data aren't the only numbers showing the war has possibly turned around. The Afghanistan NGO safety office released it's quarterly report showing a 43% drop in insurgent attacks. That followed on from a 18% drop in Q4 2011. n nISAF hostile deaths are also down 32% from the same time last year despite only a slight decrease in numbers on the ground.