A poll conducted by the liberal Workmen’s Circle and published last week should reassure liberals that their views still predominate in the Jewish community, but it provided little comfort to those hoping President Obama can come anywhere near his 2008 share of the Jewish vote. The poll showed American Jews are far more liberal than most Americans. They are willing to pay higher taxes, don’t seem to like financial institutions, love unions and favor abortion and gay marriage in numbers that far outstrip the rest of the country. The respondents also give President Obama a big majority at a time when national polls are calling the presidential election a dead heat.
But despite the effort of the poll’s left-wing sponsor to treat this as a victory for the incumbent, it actually confirms the fact that the president is bleeding Jewish support this year and appears to be falling far short of the share of the community’s vote that he won in 2008. With the poll showing him getting only 59 percent of the Jewish vote as opposed to the 78 percent he received four years ago, there is no disguising a drastic decline in support for the Democrat.
The Workmen’s Circle attempts to soften the blow by saying if undecided voters broke down the same way decided voters did, it would give Obama a 68 to 32 percent lead among Jews. But that’s an absurd assertion. History shows us there is no reason to believe that is the way undecided voters actually vote. If anything, it is more likely that in a close race, undecideds are more likely to break toward the challenger, but that is merely a guess. But even if that wildly optimistic supposition were to be borne out, it would still represent a ten percent drop in the Jewish vote for Obama–a result that would have to be treated as a blow to the Democrats and a minor success for Republicans.
If, however, the final results turn out to be closer to the 59 percent figure, Obama would receive the lowest percentage of the Jewish vote in a presidential election of any Democrat since Jimmy Carter.
The pollsters insist, not without some reasons, that Israel does not appear to be a determining factor in the presidential vote. It bears repeating that the vast majority of Jews are not single issue voters on Israel and, like most Americans, will cast their votes based on other issues–principally, the economy.
The pollster’s analysis points out:
Significantly, neither attachment to Israel nor confidence in Israelis vs. Palestinians as peace seeking strongly factor into Jews’ presidential vote decision. This was among the findings of the survey regarding American Jewish attitudes toward Israel.
Obama voters and Romney voters do differ on Israel; Romney voters are more attached to Israel and more confident in Israel’s commitment to peace. However, these differences are totally explained by prior factors like religiosity and political ideology, than are the primary determinants of Obama vs. Romney preferences.
These are fair points but if, as the poll shows, the decline in Obama’s share of the Jewish vote is greater than the losses he is encountering in other sectors in national polls, analysts need to ponder what it is about the president that is repelling a higher proportion of Jewish supporters to abandon his ship than elsewhere. That is a question the Workmen’s Circle prefers not to ask, let alone answer.
Because, as the Jewish Telegraphic Agency reports, this otherwise heavily liberal population is still steadfast in its support for Israel as well as sympathetic to its current government, it is not unreasonable to suppose that those sentiments have led them to be, at the very least, a bit less favorable to a president who spent his first three years in office picking fights with Israel. Like the rest of the country, more Jews are disillusioned with the president’s handling of the economy, but is that enough to explain a potential loss of almost a quarter of the votes he received four years ago?
Any Jews still support the Dims, at all, much less Odrama Queen all have less excuse to be so suicidally ignorant than any people group on the planet. Maybe their suicidalness is not a mental state denoting acumen, but a symptom of the misery of their hearts. nJews above all nations on the planet have more information about the destructiveness of dictatorial oppressors and Malignant Narcissists who are such powermongering micromanagerial sociopaths, and the dangers of feeding them.
The majority of Jews unfortunately have been seduced into believing appeasement policies are the best way to achieve peace in the Middle East. This naive mindset threatens their very existence. They confuse good intentions with rational strategies. I am sure that both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama "mean well"—but so what?
Many Jews do not know or do not care that history repeats itself. What matters, is their self limited life on earth and immediate satisfactions.
The liberal Jews who do not support Israel support the oppression of the Jews of the world including themselves.
The Western oil men had only one goal: control of the ME oil. They include the US, the Brits and the French. They started to look into the ME at the end of the 19th century. They are also called: the Orientalists.
In the privacy of the ballot box, will 59% of eligible Jewish voters cast a ballot for Obama? Don't count on it. Many don't want to admit that the one-sided love affair is over…..but, it IS over.
No matter how you slice it or dice it, USA Jews are stuck on stupid.
Obama appears to be antagonistic towards Jews in general and Israel in particular. Why do they vote for him? Probably out of some fond but misguided feelings for FDR – who, they don't seem to remember, refused to let Jews fleeing from Hitler land in the U.S.
The fact that forty percent of American Jews may not support a president and a party that are hostile to Israel is not cause for satisfaction. n nSimilarly, the Park Slope Food Co-op's recent vote to institute a boycott of Israeli goods failed by a similar percentage – amongst an overwhelmingly Jewish electorate. Again, congratulations are not in order. n nSeveral years ago, Steven Spielberg added an introduction to the DVD of "Munich"in which he said it had not been his intention to attack the state of Israel. What a guy! n nArthur Koestler famously remarked that the only patrimony of the Jews is self-loathing. n nWell, we're about to see the consequences of that play out on the world stage.
so ok wait…Obama got 78% of the Jewish vote in 2008 and he's on track to get only 59% in 2012…but we're supposed to believe this has NOTHING to do with Israel? n nplease. n nI'm delighted to see that my Jewish brothers and sisters are starting to see the light about Obama. let's hope that 59% continues to dwindle. (altho' I must agree with dansdaman that we Jews do indeed seem to be "stuck on stupid" when it comes to continually voting Democrat.)
Cheer up. There is still enough time for Obama to cut his Jewish support to less than 50%. n n
In his book "The Myth of the Rational Voter", Bryan Caplan discusses the psychic stress involved in confronting and changing one's worldview and resulting political affiliations. It's human nature to deny facts and reason to preserve the habitual comfort and certainty of one's worldview. So don't be amazed that most American Jews still support Obama. Rather, be amazed that so many are undergoing the psychic stress required to confront their prior support. n n
The Romney strategists have small room for error. They must safeguard their candidate from allegations of any kind of bigotry, especially towards African Americans. Beware of traps set up to paint Romney as possibly a bigot and racist. Romney must be proactive in this regard.
The problem is not that Jews will or will not vote for Obama; certainly he will lose some support. But will Jews vote for a Romney-Trump-etc ticket? Most voters vote against a candidate, seeking the lesser of the two evils, and without doubt most Jews disagree with the 2012 GOP candidates on many issues. Previous Obama voters who decide not to vote for him this year will stay at home election day, not voting for either candidate.
As a liberal Jewish Obama voter I am very happy with his stands on health care and gay marriage but as a Jew , I remember that Obama really has put Israel under the bus. nHe changed the policy of previous administrations that the borders were subject to negotiations and that Israel would get new borders and not have to go back to the 67 borders ( including the Western Wall and the settlement blocks ) to withdrawal from all the territories. nThis takes away Israel's most important card in negotiations.So if he does that why would I believe he would bomb Iran when it gets the nuclear bomb?