A new survey of the Jewish population in the Greater New York area contradicts the conventional wisdom about the subject. It has long been assumed that any portrait of American Jews must tell us a story about an aging, liberal population that is rapidly assimilating. But, as the New York Times reports, the latest results show that the population of the largest center of Jewish life outside of Israel is actually growing. The survey’s estimate of New York City’s Jewish community pegs it at about 1.1 million, with 1.54 million being counted when you include the surrounding suburban counties on Long Island and Westchester (Jews in Northern New Jersey who would also be considered part of Greater New York were not counted). Of even greater import is that the rapid expansion of ultra-Orthodox and Hasidic Jewry are the sole reason for this population growth. By contrast, the numbers of Jews who identity with the heretofore much larger non-Orthodox movements have declined precipitately. The only other sector that is growing is made up of those Jews who reject all the denominations or eschew religion entirely.
If, as the survey tells us, 40 percent of Jews in New York City and 74 percent of all Jewish children are Orthodox, then this must inform our conclusions not only about what American Jews believe but also about its future. When combined with the nearly one-third of Jews who are abandoning Jewish identity altogether, this paints a picture of an American Jewish population that is comprised of two ships passing each other in the night — one becoming increasingly Orthodox and the other on the brink of not being Jewish at all. Because the Orthodox have radically different views on political issues from those of the non-Orthodox as well as generally identifying more thoroughly with Israel, this will inevitably alter the political balance of the community. Though the numbers may be different elsewhere in the country, with about one-third of American Jewry located in Greater New York, there’s little doubt this means the Jewish community of the future will be far less liberal.
More than 20 years ago, the organized Jewish world was shaken by the results of the 1990 National Jewish Population Survey. It painted a sobering picture of an aging and shrinking community, but the number that galvanized discussion about the results was 52 percent. That was the survey’s estimate of the number of Jews marrying outside their faith and constituted a stunning rise above previous studies on the subject. Some experts, including Steven M. Cohen (the leader of the group who conducted the current survey about Greater New York), who later wrote that a more accurate estimate would have put the figure at 41 percent, disputed that figure. But whether it was 41 or 52 percent, there was no longer any doubt about the fact that the American Jews were undergoing a radical change. More to the point, the impact of such a high intermarriage rate as well as other indications that much of Jewry was rapidly assimilating and thereby shedding their Jewish identity, would ultimately lead to a very different looking community in the future.
These numbers scared Jewish organizations badly. But much of the concern was wrongly focused on a symptom — intermarriage — rather than the cause of the problem that was rooted in a communal culture that pinned identity on external factors such as memory of the Holocaust and support for Israel rather than on building identity via education. Nevertheless, the furor about intermarriage was enough to cause Jewish philanthropic groups to begin to focus their efforts more on causes that promoted “continuity,” fearing a future in which a dominant liberal American Jewish identity would find itself on the verge of extinction.
But 20 years later, it is more than obvious that the demographic chickens have already come home to roost for liberal Jewry. As the new study points out, even as the numbers of Orthodox Jews grow by leaps and bounds, Jewish observance is declining among the non-Orthodox. While nearly half of young Jewish adults in the region have a attended a Jewish day school of some kind, most of those who do not identity with a denomination aren’t giving their kids any sort of Jewish education. And it should also be noted that half of the non-Orthodox who marry have a spouse who is not Jewish. Because studies have shown us that the children of intermarriage are far less likely to get a Jewish education or to marry a Jew, the ominous conclusions to be drawn from these numbers are obvious.
The fact that a large proportion of the growing ultra-Orthodox sector is also poor and not connected to the rest of Jewry also complicates efforts to provide Jewish services or to unite these disparate groups into a coherent community.
But above all, this means the Jewish community of the future will be even less politically and religiously liberal. The assumption that Jewish life could be built on a largely secular lifestyle in which liberal politics would provide a substitute for faith was as foolish as the notion that it could persist on identification with the Yiddish language or certain ethnic foods. The assumption that most American Jews will always be secular liberals is a myth that has just been exploded.
Sometimes I wonder if Jews didn't imbue Leftism with certain qualities to make it a more palatable religion for themselves. Ironically, they've taken the unilateral moral superiority that many of us found questionable in traditional Judaism. By normalizing, on a cultural level, their preferred Jewish values, they make the transition easy … all the benefits of Judaism with none of the drawbacks. This ultimately means dropping the association with essentially Jewish issues – in this case The Holocaust and Israel. Without a Jewish perspective on these issues, they can consider themselves "just regular (morally superior) folk." n nThis has happened before, in early 20th century Germany, and because of the traditional homogeneity of Germany the blending in didn't take. But in the culturally diverse US, it's much easier.
Is this part of the survey? n nThe fact that a large proportion of the growing ultra-Orthodox sector is also poor and not connected to the rest of Jewry also complicates efforts to provide Jewish services or to unite these disparate groups into a coherent community. n nWhile there certainly is poverty in the Chareidi community is it really a large proportion? (I would think this is more true in Israel than in the United States.) What are the numbers? n nIf you read Mishpacha, it is geared towards people who are well off. It wouldn't be successful if it weren't delivering businesses customers with money to spend.
according to the survey, 43% of those identifying as "ultra-orthodox" (or accepted synonyms such as Hassidic) were below the US standard poverty line.
Thank you. I believe that that number sounds high. But obviously I've done no research.
You need to qualify your statement: they were below the US standard poverty line taking into account family size….These are families making $50,000 a year, but with 6 kids, you still fall below the poverty line
Ironically, this survey vindicates the work of the early secular Zionists who maintained that only in Israel can the Jewish people survive. It would be the height of 'unforeseen consequences' if secular Jewry could only find a place to survive (and thrive) in Israel -that bastion of "illiberality' -at least according to Peter Beinart and his liberal cohorts.
There is an unbecoming tenor of schadenfreude in this post.What happened to K'lal Y'Isroael?
To argue that the article expressed schadenfreude is imprecise. More accurately, the article has a “told you so” quality. And over the decades, Commentary indeed did “tell us so”.
Schadenfreude is an imprecise word to describe the tenor of the article. It reflects more of an “I told you so”. And indeed, over the last three decades, Commentary repeatedly told us so.
Yes and no. To me it means that 'liberal' Reform and some Masorti Jews no longer admit to being or identifying as Jewish. That is, they are self selecting out even without overt assimilation. That's still a generation away. After consuming a steady diet of Jewbashing and self abasement they have decided it's no longer fashionable for people to see them as Jews. So poof! No more. But as I said it's still a generation away from changing their names and pretending to be WASPs.
The real error Tobin makes is in equating the larger numbers in NYC orthodox community with a greater support for Israel as a state. He obviously neglects to consider that, outside the Chabad community the general attitude is not Zionist.
" … outside the Chabad community the general attitude is not Zionist." Not true. Orthodox and Conservative both tend toward Zionism, not surprising in that such has long since been part of their daily prayers. n nThe problem is you're either Zionist or anti-Zionist and only Reform and assimilated Jews can stomach anti-Zionism.
oldleftie is correct. The Orthodox, by and large with some exceptions, are opposed to the government of Israel to one degree or another. Especially so with the Chareidim/Ulta-Orthodox.
Exactly. I raised an eyebrow at that, as well. Aish represents a strain of Lithuanian Haredi Judaism that is Zionist, but that's an outreach group and not a proper group within the Haredi world in the sense of Chabad, Satmar, or Belz.
Tobin makes a lot of mistakes, but that is not one of them. The NYC orthodox community, with the exception of a few Chassidic sects, overwhelmingly supports Israel.
The point, which I am confident you will ignore, is that the increase in the Orthodox Jewish population that Tobin cites is greatest among those groups which are not Zionist.
Why should I ignore it when it's obviously so wrong?
because it's not. But since you don't want to be confused by the truth, I'm not surprised that you cling to your fiction.
"The fact that a large proportion of the growing ultra-Orthodox sector is also poor and not connected to the rest of Jewry" How is either of these disparate points proven? 'Poor' as in consumption of consumer goods? Observant Jews have some priorities which differ from those of the wider community – the gauge doesn't fit them in all areas. Are they less connected to the rest of Jewry than the rest of Jewry is to them? They provide gemachim and services like Hatzolo – look them up – to all Jews, and even to others in need. They act on 'Kol Yisrael arevim zeh lazeh.' – Every Jew is responsible for every other Jew. In Israel, where incomes are often lower [not the same thing as poverty!], there are even more gemachim, plus Yad Sarah, Ezer Mitzion, to name only the best-known community-wide organisations founded and run by observant Jews. Stereotypes need checking and revising.
Are you saying DNA doesn't matter anymore? What about the unknown millions of Jews who converted to Catholicism,during the Shoa, with the thought of saving their lives? I for one believe they were still devout Jews. Remember this was about race not religion. I believe same holds true for now as we are a race of people not merely a religion. For me my DNA keeps me thriving.
I can't believe that "unknown millions" of Jews converted to Catholicism to escape the Holocaust. A few did, though. Where is the evidence to back up your statement?
God or mammon? The choice could be God or society or God or art or God or science or God or nature, etc. And why do you make it a binary choice? Is less than 100% of one's life devoted to God tantamount to none at all? n nThe ultra-Orthodox believe that human life should be devoted to God. Fine. Monastics share that belief. But whereas monastics believe that their devotion redounds to the benefit of the whole human race, the ultra-Orthodox seem fairly self-absorbed.
Cause everything that isn't God, is mammon. I'm a Christian and even I know that! Read the Torah – God said it is binary, therefore it is binary.
At work, most gentiles assumed I supported Israel and gave thecountry my thoughts 24-7. First, yes I am a Zionist and proud of it. Jews need a state, as 2,000 yrs of our murder testified. As far as living “Jewish”, I am Conservative, always. Orth is too structured and demanding, Reform the opposite. Most US “Jews” give some degree of support (and aid) to Israel)., as their spiritual homeland, and the Jewish refuge, (just as the Sudanese sought refuge).The politics is mixed, just as in Israel. It’s a gross error to think differently, I am also a Republican, afer having been mis-lead for decades by the liberal Democrats, Tikkun Olam and all that nonsense. (We aid people who hate us and feel some responsibility for the world?). Not all of us appreciate that (as during WW2), we Jews (worldwide) are in a war for our survival..from Israel to Manhattan, Queens to
Jersey City. As some writers and pundits like to say,
“For many Jews, liberalism is their religion”. (Replacing Torah), Hopefully, as per this article, things are a changing. I mean Jews do not have to equate with deficit spending, or health insurance for everyone, paid for by the rest of us. The American people spoke up in Wisconson and California. We are getting back to individual responsibiity, not some pious focus group agenda with their naive version of morality, at our expense.
The Orthodox, while typically insulated from the rest of US, have a point. Large families are both a blessing, and an attempt to undo the Holocaust, which resulted in one-third of our people wiped out in about 3 years. For those who dont know, Hitler had designs on all 17m Jews., including those in Palestine, the US and England. Rommels defeat and England’s brave men, stopped that. 600,000 Jews fought Hitler With the entire planet ganging up on Israel, and our US guaranteed religious freedoms, its
shocking to read this article. Why (w/o) conversion, a Jews would intermarry is beyond me? What do they expect?
And those in-laws. Judaism is not selling itself, just as Israel is not selling itself. As many gentile woman have told me, “why would a gentile marry a Jew”? In Europe, Jews were forced into gehttos and lifestiles. They had to remai as Jews. Those that converted (Spain) were eventually killed. With all its freedoms, the Jewish non religious community has simply lost it’s way, confused by all the hype, and tired of seeing and hearing about Israel’s conflict (brought upon it by its Arab neighbors). I would recommend 3 books to every Jew;
Mein Kampt (Hitlers agenda), Etz Hayim, and “What is a Jew”, by a Jewish chaplain during WW2. They will open up people’s eyes. It may be hard to swallow, but every Jew who converts to another faith, or denies his (her) Jewishness, is fooling himself. If they want to rear their children to believe in “original sin” and the “end days”, go for it, but dont say you are sorry later.
"Why (w/o) conversion, a Jews would intermarry is beyond me?" n nI was in love with the girl. But I told her I would be Jewish or nothing. Since she wanted religion Jewish it was. She converted. And why no religion for me? Well I hear the voice of G-d every day. It could just be my mild schizophrenia. But the advice has been unfailingly good (start a family – now! 15 minutes later it was done). Four children raised Reform (they got a Jewish education) – my wife couldn't take anything stricter. She still volunteers for projects at the temple with our #4 child already in the 3rd year of college. n
The old leftie is simply,if unsurprisingly, mistaken-The vast bulk of Jews who identify as Modern Orthodox in Midwood,Flatbush,Boro Park are extremely supportive of Israel (as are the Sephardim).
and again, unsurprisingly, you ignore the fact that the population explosion is not among that "vast bulk of Jews" you cite, but among the Chasidim who are not Zionist.
Most Modern Orthodox have 4-6,and more kids. That's a population explosion.And thankfully they're overwhelmingly pro-Israel.Orthodoxy comes in more varieties than you acknowledge-you're confusing Modern orthodox with secular/assimilationalists who obviously have a very low birth-rate and generally stray far away from any form of Judaism or Zionism or Jewish identification( except when bashing Israel)-as far away as many of the old lefty universalists tried to get.And ,I would venture to say that the pro-Zionist Lubavitchers have roughly the same amount of children as the anti-Zionist Satmarim . Demographically the Modern Orthodox are making the difference.
I can't cite figures, so we shall have to agree to disagree. As one who frequently davens with the Hasidim in Boro Park and Williamsburg, I can only compare what I know of the birth rates there (10-12+ children) with your estimate, which I think is a bit high. But since I'm not going to spend any more time on the matter here, and you at least have continued this discussion on a more polite level of discourse than you began it, I shall do you the honor of ending it on the same polite note.
The Lithuanian (Litvak) stream of Orthodox Judaiusm, also with an explosive population growth rate, is similarly anti-Zionist. They tend to reside in NYC neighborhoods such as Flatbush and Boro Park as well as Lakewood, New Jersey. n nThey are, generally, represented by the Agudath Israel. The Agudah, though it sits in the Israeli government, refuses to accept cabinet-level positions it is entitled to due to its anti-Zionism. n nTheir spiritual leaders, all non-Chasidic, are figures such as Rabbi Elyashev, Rabbi Steinman, Rabbi Auerbach, et al. All of whom are very strongly anti-Zionist. n nThis is where the explosive population growth is taking place.
Modern Orthodox usually have 4-6 kids.You don't seem to have much contact with the Community you're talking about.
Anyway you slice and dice the numbers, the hard fact is that Jewish liberals and leftists have taken control of our communal organizations including parceling out their large stores of money.
Oh, Jews control large sums of money and the media, eh? Where have I heard that before?
Probably at the meetings of old lefties you attend.
lol. Go ahead, parrot the antisemite line. Probably because you are really one of them.
I see the American Jews on the tv only and I see the diffident second class people,though successful in life sometimes.Assymilations where disastrous in our history,remember just the Inquisition and Hitler.The Zionism is the practical historical task for Jewry, but is too heavy for liberal and uncertain Jew.That`s so simple.
With all the discussion involving haredi sects the following article should prove interesting:
The Haredi Spring
http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=4595
” They work in high-tech and advertising, serve in the Israel Defense Forces and still wear black skullcaps • They demand recognition and legitimacy, threaten to split off from the United Torah Judaism party and become angry when others describe them as foes • Although the leaders of the haredi street make it difficult for them to find spouses and call them “haredi-lite,” they also realize that these “new haredim” are not going away • The “new haredi” movement may lead the haredi sector either to an explosion or to a split. ”
Obviously what perturbs the haredi “heavy” is that the “lite” will not be tied to their apron strings because of financial concerns; and that means a loss of power.
"…with about one-third of American Jewry located in Greater New York, there’s little doubt this means the Jewish community of the future will be far less liberal." n nNO! Less "leftist" – not less "liberal" — and it is a point worth making and in a larger context. n nI think it is only a matter of time until the conservative urban Jews and rural TEA Party folk realize that they are on the same side of just about everything, and we truly have the values-based populist movement that has been building for some time. Forget religion and race here and instead think political and social values, world view and such — the Orthodox Jewish family and the conservative Christian family are confronted with the same issues, upset about the same things and (given a chance) will vote in an almost identical manner on almost everything. n nEven as to the mentioned poverty — part of the problem is that our social policy does not support the traditional father/mother/child model, families where the mother stays home with the children instead of working tend toward poverty, families with more than 2 children tend toward poverty, — this is because of changes in American social policy over the past half century and has nothing to do with religion. (The consequence of large numbers of women entering the workforce and being paid as much as men became the de-facto requirement that mothers would have to work in order for the family not to be poor.) n nBut the most important point to remember is that the political left has drifted so way from what would be considered "liberal" values that one really ought not call them "liberals."
ur 100% Right,t the liberal Jews where always against vouchers forcing allot of hasidic jews to make their incomes off the books to allow them to take all these social programs to be able to survive financially to ba bale to afford a private Jewish education for their children,and lets not forget most hasidim that own houses pay over 10,000 a year on property taxes that go towards public school education . n
The survey also excluded Rockland County (Monsey) and central NJ (Lakewood), which contain two of the three largest orthodox communities (with Passaic) in suburban NYC. The number of religious Jews in greater NYC is significantly larger than the results indicate.
This is definitely true, Skaplan. If 40% of Greater New York Jews are Orthodox, then that's 616,000. The survey does, as you say, exclude Monsey, New Square, Kiryas Joel, Greater Teaneck, Passaic, Elizabeth, Lakewood, and Deal. Other cities with huge Orthodox communities include Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Greater Miami, Los Angeles, Cleveland, and Chicago. Smaller, but burgeoning Orthodox communities exist in such places as Houston, St Louis, Atlanta, Dallas, Las Vegas, and elsewhere. n nThe 2010 National Jewish Population Survey results were not released, but if they were, I truly believe you would find that Orthodox Judaism has already outstripped Conservative Judaism in numbers, and is well on its way to overtaking Reform. Conservative is in free-fall decline, because it's the sick man of American Judaism. Reform hasn't experienced a numerical decline yet, but by their own admission, and according to studies done by Reform researchers, the low level of involvement and the loss of so many young people means that they are in immanent danger of numerical collapse. The far smaller Reconstructionist movement, which was the fastest growing movement in American Judaism during the 80s and early 90s, has, according to Reconstructionists I've spoken to, leveled off since then. n nSo basically, Orthodoxy, in all its incredible diversity, from the centrist YU types to Chassidic groups to the Litvishe to Sephardi communities to this growing liberal Orthodoxy out of Chovevei Torah, is emerging as the powerhouse of American Judaism.
The only thing we can expect in the future is the unforseen, and that will change the direction that Jews seem to be heading in. There won't always be an England and there won't always be liberals,, but there will always be Jews.
The reason the ultra orthodox are struggling financially is because all the liberal Jews devoted all their resources to oppose vouchers for private Jewish day schools and yeshivahs,they are the cause of their own demise.
God bless you, in all the ambiguity that implies. And God bless us.