A popular argument lately has been if the Supreme Court overturns ObamaCare, it will actually be disastrous for Republicans by taking away a major motivating force that would have driven voters to the polls in November. That’s hard to believe. Voters routinely cite jobs and the economy as the top issues that influence their votes, with health care trailing well behind. Those who do list health care as a key voting priority are actually more likely to support Obama. Not to mention, anyone who was planning to vote based on their opposition to ObamaCare would likely be attracted to the GOP’s broader economic vision as well.
Democrats have by far the most to lose if the law is struck down, and their response will be hugely important. In the WSJ today, Karl Rove outlines the best case Obama can make if his signature legislative achievement is overturned:
If the court moves to invalidate part or all of the Affordable Care Act, what matters most politically is Mr. Obama’s response.
The president could pivot to the center and regain some of the high ground he occupied in his 2008 campaign. He could say that while he disagreed with the court’s decision, the justices had the responsibility under our system to decide whether the law was constitutional. Everyone needs to respect and accept the verdict.
He could then add that a big problem remains: Tens of millions of our fellow citizens lack affordable health insurance. Now it is the responsibility of Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives to come together and provide access to coverage. And the president could offer proposals to do that.
The Obama campaign would be smart to take Rove’s advice and shift to the center if the law is overturned. But judging from the campaign’s strategical blunders so far, it seems more likely to take the opposite route. If ObamaCare is struck down (completely or in part), the Democratic base will go ballistic. The left already views Obama as a weak leader who has acquiesced to Republicans and failed to push through a more muscular progressive agenda. It would be devastating to have his single biggest accomplishment erased from the books. Unless the president publicly endorses an even more radical health care law to replace ObamaCare, progressives may be reluctant to support him for another term.
On the other hand, if ObamaCare is upheld by the Supreme Court, the left will have an additional reason to turn out and vote — if only to prevent Mitt Romney from taking office and dismantling the chief progressive accomplishment of the past four years.
If the court overturns this law, well let's just say that it's all good for the Republicans.
The idea that the overturning of Obamacare in whole or in part is anything but a disaster for Obama and the Democrats is more evidence of the warped thinking that dominates Democrat circles these days and prevents them from accurately assessing the political landscape. In fact, a Supreme Court defeat will underscore the valuable time wasted; that while the economy burned, Obama fiddled with his dream of taking the first step towards an eventual single-payer system. Republicans for their part will need to draw the connection between the stalled recovery and the uncertainty caused by the law that convinced employers to delay hiring new workers. The economic repercussions of this boondoggle must be made clear. Fortunately, Romney is showing signs that he knows exactly what to do.
Obama's biggest problem is the fact that his base (and Democrats generally) are further from the center of American politics than is the Republican base. Over the last several years, the distance has been increasing. There is nothing he can do about this. His best hope, given his near total lack of popular, real accomplishment, is to energize his base and depress or contain that of Romney. This is risky but it might work. But it is not post-partisan hope and change.
Who loses if Obamacare is overturned? Josef Stalin, Karl Marx, and Kind. America haters.