Why is Barack Obama’s road to re-election so steep and uncertain at this stage?
There are five important reasons.
1. An indefensible record. Every election which features an incumbent is, at least in good measure, a referendum on the record of the incumbent. The problem facing Obama is that he can’t offer a convincing case that his policies have succeeded. Recall that at the outset of his presidency, Obama told NBC’s Matt Lauer, “I will be held accountable. I’ve got four years… If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.” Yet last October, Obama had to concede to ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that “I don’t think [people are] better off than they were four years ago.”
In addition, the main achievements of the Obama presidency – including the Affordable Care Act and the stimulus package – are deeply unpopular. By virtually any measure, then, the president has presided over a failed first term. He cannot reinvent, and therefore he cannot successfully defend, his record.
2. A weakening economy. The Obama campaign rested its hopes on the American economy getting stronger rather than weaker. This would have allowed the president to argue that while things haven’t improved as quickly as Americans had hoped, the trajectory was encouraging, that progress was being made, that the building blocks to prosperity were in place. From there, Obama would say he needed a second term to complete what he (belatedly) started in his first. But the data this year – including dismal economic growth, job creation, and factory orders – have left the Obama narrative in ruins. In the fourth year of his presidency, Obama is presiding over a weak economy that is becoming weaker still. The issue the public cares most about (the economy) is the issue the president is most vulnerable on.
3. Intellectual exhaustion. The Obama campaign is out of ideas. On the economy, Obama has used virtually everything in his progressive toolkit. Nothing has worked. And so the president, unable to defend his record in the first term, is left with no compelling vision to offer in a second term. Witness his speech in Ohio yesterday. It was billed as a “major” address on the economy. But it was widely panned even on the left for being empty and uninteresting. The president himself cannot articulate why his agenda in a second term would be more effective than what he’s done in his first term. He’s running on empty.
4. A formidable opponent. The Obama campaign’s attempt to disqualify Mitt Romney on grounds that he’s too extreme to be president has fizzled. Whatever complaints one may have about Romney, being an extremist is not a plausible one. As Bill Clinton admitted, Romney has been a governor, had a “sterling business career,” and “crosses the qualification threshold.” Since securing the GOP nomination, Romney has made few unforced errors. He’s begun to repair the damage he had sustained. He’s shown impressive discipline and focus as a candidate. He’s outraising the president. And Governor Romney’s campaign is, at least as of now, clearly superior to the president’s.
5. The late break. In most presidential elections, undecided voters break in large numbers for the challenger. If someone is undecided about an incumbent they know well, they will usually cast their ballot for the challenger. That’s particularly true when the country is suffering from economic difficulties and the political fundamentals are bad for the person occupying the Oval Office, which is certainly the case today.
Craig Shirley’s book Rendezvous With Destiny reminds us that 10 days before the 1980 election, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by one point in a CBS News/New York Times poll; and the morning of the presidential debate (October 29), a Gallup Poll reported that Carter had a three-point lead over Reagan. Yet Reagan outdueled Carter in the debate and ended up winning 44 states and defeating Carter by almost 10 points.
I have long believed, and continue to believe, that the durable dynamic in this race will be that a majority of the public, and a large majority of independent voters, (a) consider Barack Obama’s tenure to be a failure and (b) are inclined to vote against him. They are bone weary of his presidency, and they want it over.
The challenge for Mitt Romney is to sufficiently reassure these voters that he’s up to the task of being president and that he would be an improvement over Obama. There have been higher bars to clear in the history of American politics, and at this stage in the race – with less than 150 days to go – the former Massachusetts governor is on course to do just that. Which is why he should be considered the favorite in the race.
and the most important reason of all…….despite Romney being certainly not the favorite, Romney is the favorite because Wehner wants it to be true!!!!! n n
From your lips to David Axelrod's ears.
Me too!
Very intelligent rebuttal, Mike. About what I'd expect from a "progressive" these days. n nMr. Wehner is right on the money with his analysis, and the fact that you and the rest of the Obamabots don't like it doesn't do anything to lessen its validity.
Mitt the favorite because he is a successful businessman, and he has the ability to do this. nObama was a community organizer, and yet you guys put him into the oval office…SHAME ON YOU.
And I'll bet you put G.W. in office…twice.
what's this "you guys"? I didn't vote for him. n nand, yer crying out loud, quit with the community organizer nonsense. n nObama's an Ivy League law grad and was a US Senator before winning the presidency. You don't have to like him or agree with his policies, but you don't get to ignore the facts. n n n n nRomney has never been and is not now the favorite, shoppe. That's simply untrue.
I am one of the independent voters both candidates crave. I listened to Obama's speech in Ohio the other day. I was hoping to hear some ideas, a plan or at least him saying I am going to sit down with Republicans and try to enact some joint measures giving Republicans credit for the ideas they come up with and are enacted to see if we can get the country back to work. But no, all I heard was the same old rhetoric, talking about what he inherited, laying blame on everybody but himself. Throwing up your hands and complaining and blaming isn't going to solve anything. My father always told me-son, if your not up to the job and you have tried everything and have done your best, then quit, step aside and let somebody else try. It will be the best for you and everybody else that is involved. I say this because I don't think that Obama is up to the job on the economy. I think that he has tried everything he can, although he didn't give it the priority it needed when he took office. He went the social change route even though the failing economy is all he talked about during his campaign in 2008. Therefore, since he took the social change route and let the economy languish and pissed away three and one half years of his first term, it is necessary to find someone else to do the job on the economy that he should have done from day one on January 21, 2009. And because of that on November 6, 2012 I will go to the voting booth and be saying: Barack Hussein Obama-you're fired!!!!!!!
Obama is a mediocrity, who couldn't pour pizz out of a boot if the instructions were on the heel. He got into Punahou Academy, Occidental College, Columbia University and HAAAAARVAAAARD law School as an affirmative action candidate, and would not have qualified in any of those venues if his mother had chosen a white baby daddy for l'il Barrack.
you're a flaming backside of a dappled donkey and let me know when your own ignorant slack-jawed self gets educated in any school remotely as good, lampwick. n nyou don't have to like him, but being an anencephalic low-rent mouth breathing mo-ran means ya ain't got standing to assess the guys educational attainments. n ngo chew your hay and bray elsewhere.
The only "anencephalic low-rent mouth breathing mo-ran" is POTUS who is out "altitude, airspeed and ideas." n nI won't go as far as hold out Romney as the favorite, but the country is bone tired of the libtard in office at the moment. Whether that will be enough to elect Romney is a question at the moment. June is far too early to tell. We'll pretty much know around the middle of October. n nAs for you Mr. Mikefoxtrot, all you are doing is showing that your the south end of northbound Donkey, and with less intellect.
Wow, remember when Commentary was a magazine, and the "letters" section resembled that of a peer-reviewed journal where anyone could try to participate but if their ideas weren't up to snuff they'd be dismantled in the next issue? n nAmazing how far discourse has fallen. I really like stimulating debate with no holds barred on ideas, even if I might think some of those ideas are ludicrous. n nNow we get unfounded accusations rather than admission of speculation. n nHere's how I would have done it: Please release Obama's college records so that we, his potential employers, can examine them to answer the questions we have about the man. To wit: he claimed to be from Kenya to publish books. Did he do the same thing to get into college? We are told he's even smarter than the head cashier down at the Wal-Mart. Can we please have some scholastic evidence of this? Because the policy evidence, well, militates toward an opposite conclusion. n nIf he will not release his college records, as all presidential candidates before and after him have done, we are left to wonder what are the closely guarded state secrets therein? What is so damaging in those records that the voters must not be allowed to see them? n nWhen one applies for a job, the prospect is asked to submit his/her curriculum vitae and college transcripts as a matter of routine. It is past time to require this of the president. It may be that he got into all those fancy schools through affirmative action, but that won't be on his record and thus all assertions about it are speculation. n nWhat will be present in his college records are his claimed birthplace and list of courses and grades, and much of his collected college writings. Hillary Clinton wrote much as a young student that is embarrassing for an adult, but after all we do grow up don't we? She is more respectable than Barack for having released her records. Grownups seeking the presidency disclose their college records for their potential employers to examine. n nAs for the birth certificate, I am interested but it's not crucial. Crucial for me is defeating liberalism at the ballot box which means running straight up against him and letting the voters make the call. Taking Obama out via a forged birth certificate or impeachment for violating laws left and right might make serious Obama-haters feel good for a moment, but it leaves the serious work of repairing the country undone. That has to be done voter by voter, so that further damage can be avoided in the future. Taking out Obama on a technicality, even if it's totally valid, makes him a martyr. Putting him up for voter repudiation answers that question solidly. So keep insisting on his college records and calling him out loudly every day he doesn't produce them.
Your ignorance is on display. Give Mommy her computer back.
"flaming backside of a dappled donkey"???? I have never seen one of those critters! Can you post a photo? LOL.
not likely, the ASPCA is trouble enough, but PETA's a real problem.
He was a very junior senator who got in because "someone" revealed now refuted scurrilous divorce info on his opponent. He voted "present" more than yes or no and spent two years of his first term running for president. That's hardly experience and definitely only qualified him to run campaigns. As Gertrude Stein said about California, for Obama, "there's no there, there."
He did not finish is Senator term and had NO accomplishments as a Senator – strictly a backbencher. How does one become an editor of Harvard Law and NEVER actually have to write anything? Nevermind – Bush was a graduate of Harvard and Yale and yet he's considered a "moron". Only with Obama is that education "amazing"
So all you need to be POTUS is a Harvard law degree and two years in the Senate, half of which was spent campaigning for president? The posters who complain about Obama being a community organizer are making the point that he was never qualified to be POTUS. He had no executive experience whatsoever. He did not know how to run a business, much less a government. Romney is the favorite because he has executive experience as the governor of Massachusetts; he has (as Bill Clinton put it), "a sterling business record," and understands the economy. Then there are Romney's educational credentials which best Obama's: he holds a law degree and M.B.A. from Harvard. I rest my case.
And i am sure that Mitt will gladly give us copies of his transcripts if we ask. I am sure his grades were excellent vs. Obozo the Clowns who continues to hide his. If he was so smart he would have released them long ago. I am sure they would just confirm what many of us already know – that he is nothing but a dunce.
the clown is yourself. there are no grades that really matter more than a decade down the road. if they gave you the degree, you did enough.
that's the problem mike, obama "did enough" to get by. I will never ever believe that he is nothing more than an affirmative action anything. The system, and a white mother who was a banker, enabled him to attend the best schools. Yes, he is attractive, great communication skills, but when it all boils down to it…. he made a tiny ripple in the pond. nAnd yes, being a community organizer does not prepare one for the presidency as his only other relevant experience, being elected, he never showed up to vote. he is a paper person and that is about all.
Oh really? If grades are so unimportant they why were you libtards hounding Bush for hs grades and then you were all over his C avg grades and calling him a moron.? If Dumbocrats didn't have double standards they wouldn't have any standards at all. And the clown is your messiah, Obozo the Clown.
for starters, calling me "you libtards" is not gonna cut it. beside being inventive too tired to be used by any but the more isolated and slow-witted among the GED crowd, it doesn't describe me with any accuracy. n nno one that I know ever cared about his grades or asked after them or thought him to be a moron. I sure never thought that either he or his father were other than intelligent, despite neither one being particularly adept at articulating their thoughts.
the point that they're trying to make MIGHT be that he lacked experience and seasoning, which would be a good point. OR they could be attempting to say something else entirely. n n nand in neither case, would anything make Romney the favorite…. that word, in a political context, has a clear meaning and Romney does not fit. n n nAND at this point, Obama has VASTLY more experience in doing the job of POTUS. n nand holding an MBA is quite nice but quite superfluous to requirement. having done the job for four years fully trumps all else.
True, he has been POTUS for nearly four years, but there is precious little evidence that he has learned the job. He is a consummate politician, that much I'll give him. Everything he does as president is for his own benefit, i.e., to promote his re-election chances. Even the so called blanket amnesty he granted to illegal immigrants, while it looks like a highly charitable and magnanimous act on the surface, was really pandering to that group to get their votes because he knows that he is in trouble. Moreover, that choice may backfire because now those illegals will compete for jobs with Americans who were born here or who went through legal channels taking years to become a U.S. citizen. That will not sit well with those voters. But I digress from my original point, which is that I do not think that four years in the White House has taught Obama anything because he is never willing to admit he has made mistakes and all his policies are self-serving. He has no business being in the White House and he certainly does not deserve re-election. n And if you disagree with me, please don't call me the "flaming backside of a dappled donkey"!!!
He was an Ivy League law grad who had almost NO experience practicing law, and a U.S. Senator for a few short months during which he accomplished virtually nothing and voted "present" when he voted at all. __"Community organizer"? He's nothing more than a street-corner huckster.__And I love the way all his sycophants now say "Who, me? Don't blame me!! I didn't vote for him!!".
Medic, you've got flies in your eyes……. Despite all the nonsense from your legion of sitzpinklers, Obama accomplished something that very, very few Americans ever have. n n nit's pretty easy to see that you can't see the obvious. n n
So let's hear them, sheep. How about quadrupled the debt. How about spit on the Constitution. How about jammed a health care scam down the throats of the citizens against the will of the people (about to be thrown out by the S.C.). n nHe's accomplished NOTHING but prove to the people that he's no more than a ghetto street hustler…and not all that smart, either. n nAnd he's back on the corner, where he belongs, come January.
you of course couldn't tease out my meaning , but perhaps saying that he is now, and will for some years to come, remain one of only forty-three. n n nthanks for the laughs,
Oh really mikefoxtgrot? If grades don’t matter then why did you libtards make such a stink about Bush’s grades? If Dumbocrats didn’t have double standards they wouldn’t have any standards at all.
Mike do you think Wehner is the only man on earth? Polls oversample dems all the time and your guy is under water, if he does not change strategy and quick he's toast. Clinton tried to help him doe this but he is to stubborn and that is his biggest weakness the inability to see outside of his small cirlce of Chicago know it all's. For Romney to even be close right now makes him the favorite to win…like it or not
Dan…….who sez? hope you're not taking Wehner's word of whose the favorite. n nWehner is notoriously a slithy bit of one who would be a bawd in way of good service. n n nlong time back, when Hilary was the front-runner for the 2008 nod,little peter wrote about what a great candidate Obama would be.
"Don't get cocky": Professor Glenn Reynolds.
I know, let us ignore the evidence and the when the reelection bid fails we can get to screaming about fixed elections. That's where the fun is!
All of Obama's energy as president has gone into pushing social change, including Obamacare, open participation by gays in the military, and active support for same-sex marriage and institution of restrictions on the relgious freedom of schools, hospitals and other institutions with religious affiliations. Every time he should have been working on improving the economy, it was more important to him to use the crisis atmosphere of the recession to justify social engineering. n nHe devoted huge amounts of legislative energy to creating Obamacare as a sword of Damocles hanging over the head of all businesses, who have decided it is best to limit the number of people they hire because of the uncertainty in the health care costs they will have to assume. After the Democrats lost the 2010 elections in the House of Representatives, instead of enacting a budget, while they still could do it without worrying about opposition from Republicans, they refused to perform their most basic responsibility, to fund the Federal government, and instead passed legislation requiring the military to allow openly gay service members. n
I think you're right, but I'd add that Obama's social engineering had a practical side – party cohesion and fund-raising. The Democrats' identity group factions (Latinos, LGBT, feminists) demanded action on their pet issues, and Obama indulged them with divisive, unpopular policies such as deportation moratoriums, DOMA non-support, repealing don't-ask-don't-tell, support for gay marriage, and the HHS mandate. Meanwhile, Obama funneled $400 billion to state and local governments to protect unionized public sector jobs and benefits, pushed for Card Check, and stuck its thumb in Boeing's eye – all unpopular policies. To indulge the Greens, Obama set the EPA loose on American business and the energy sector, enacted and illegally enforced a Gulf drilling moratorium, delayed the Keystone XL pipeline, and shoveled billions of dollars at his "green energy" cronies, all while the price of gasoline skyrocketed. And there's much, much more of this kind of thing. n nIn view of the foregoing, you can look at Obama's ideology as favorable to running the federal government like a banana republic – lawless, corrupt, and thoroughly politicized. There being nothing preventing Obama from exploiting the power and wealth of the federal government to advance his own political ambitions and those of his Party, he then catered to every demand of every faction regardless of whether doing so was lawful, in the nation's best interest, or unpopular with the American people. In so doing, he divided us against each other to the extent that we will make a choice to go a different direction than he would take us.
Everyday its something else with the president. Today on the News I saw where "soot" is being regulated… everyday something stupid to keep our mind off the true problem… the economy.
Just wait until northern states get a gander of their heating bills without coal. Then the wheels come off the wagon. Let's all pray for an early cold snap.
How in the SamHill is one supposed to regulate soot?! n nNow if only there were a way to regulate BS…
nThose votes show the priority of Obama is not with the economy, but with social engineering. He does not care whether we are prosperous or not so long as gays have their place in the sun. He does not care whether we can individually afford health care, as long as health care service delivery is controlled by his nanny state government, telling us what insurance to buy, and what drinks to not buy. He does not care about letting everyone be more prosperous, he just wants to make rich people poorer, even if it hurts poor people in the long run. n
Another important reason Romney will do well is because of his unique background. The United States is in serious trouble – especially from a fiscal standpoint. Mitt Romney is a proven turnaround expert. The toll from Obama's lack of executive experience is pretty clear to most independent voters. Romney has the necessary background and experience to restructure the federal budget, initiate tax reform and most importantly, get the free market moving again. He's the right person at the right time. This will get clearer, I believe, as we get closer.
I am waiting for the secular yuppies to come to their senses. These are the naive people who cast their ballots for Democratic Party politicians because of the cultural war issues. They bought into the absurd notion that Democrats were equally sound on the economic issues as Republicans. Many of them have paid an awful financial price. Obama is likely doomed if he loses their support.
These are the folks who see drones as a more humane method of war.
Number 3, the exhaustion of ideas, I think is really that Obama is a true believer in his agenda, that he not only doesn't truly think America is exceptional (only the same as everyone of every country thinks their own country is pretty Ok), but that he thinks it acceptable the economy is struggling and that cars will be a thing of the past and windmills will be our only source of energy, that if we're a third rate country that's only the way it should be. All of the leftist ideas are coming to fruition — and Obama's only unhappy there aren't more public sector union hires. I, for one, never believed until Obama's twisted reality the world was heading for something along the lines of Brazil or Blade Runner or City of Lost Children … Welcome to Bizarro World.
Barack Obama is a committed leftist. That will never change. It's in his DNA. Just like Paul Krugman, his default response to every problem is "more spending" and "bigger government". Their world view simply won't allow them to accept the fact that what we're seeing in Europe and in states like California and Illinois is the inevitable consequence of the "blue welfare-state model". They will make up whatever excuse they need to make up in order to to rationalize it away, because to do otherwise would be to admit the obvious: n nSocialism simply doesn't work over the long haul.
Obama actually hates America and her values. You can see it . He absolutely hates the freedome the capitalism, the small gov that we have had up until now. n nI doubt we will even have elections in Nov… there will be an oct surprize of his making…. n nKing for Life.
Patsy Morton n nI am very afraid of the imposition of martial law, perhaps resulting from some trumped up border incident!
Now that I've read this, I'm sorry for replying to your earlier comment…… your assertions are from the rump end of loony-land. n n nIf you doubt that they'll be elections in Nov why the heck are you carrying on about how you're voting for Romney??????
I wonder where Obama will live next spring . He can't afford a Park Ave coop(if he could get past the board) . He can't afford Nantucket or Hawaii , they all come in way north of $10 million$ . So just where are he and Michelle gonna go ?? Enquiring minds want to know !!!
Right now the incumbent is the candidate of contrast. His opponent, Mitt Romney is running as himself, not as the guy who isn't the incumbent. Think about that. The incumbent has chosen to run as a cipher, as the guy who isn't Mitt Romney. That's disastrous for the incumbent. n nDid the incumbent lose Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania today? Could be.
He lost any state where middle class families are struggling due to lack of jobs.
I worry about the 'DO NOTHING' congress which is really just the Senate who is commanded by Randy Reid and his gang. There are appropriation bills to be passed before Oct 1, the Debt Limit will probably arrive early. The GOP needs to look like the adults in the room. n nWe also need to be tactful – distinguish between the 08 Obama images (each group thought he was on their side) and the 2012 reality – He is not who he said he was, makes it easier for people to change their vote.
You're not even going to be able to call this election 1 month away and you're already calling it 5 months away? You're either new to this process or being disingenuous. n nPeople who will never vote for Obama even if he walked on water will vote for Mickey Mouse or a convicted felon. But Mitt Romney will have a hard time fooling real voters that he can lead 50 states when he couldn't lead 1 state. The state that knows him more than anyone in the country doesn't trust his ability to steer the country. I suspect you'll say Massachusetts is a liberal state. But it is the state that elected him Governor. Ronald Reagan too was Governor of a liberal state and he carried his state in the Presidential election. Imagine George W. Bush not being able to win Texas in the general election. n nAfter finishing 1st in debt and 47th in job creation, you can understand why Massachusetts isn't going to be fooled again into buying the crap that Mitt Romney is selling.
I'd take 4.7% unemployment and a surplus at the national level right now. That's why Romney left Mass with and that was with a solid Democrat legislature.
Yes Yes, Romney was a governor but how does his record as a governor stack up? What is really stellar about his record as a governor? He can't even run on it! He's got a pass so far. Sooner or later voters would found out that he was a mediocre governor. Talk about intellectual exhaustion! What new ideas has Romney offered – recycling of old cut-taxes-cut spending mantra? We're still waiting for new ideas for the economy and create jobs – maybe the 47th job-creating governor during his time in MA has no ideas about how to create jobs after all. For your information, most reasonable Americans still blame the Bush administration for pushing the economy into a ditch that Obama has been trying hard to get it out from. The electoral map doesn't support your argument – few states that would decide the elections have better economic fortunes than the national picture and most of them MI, OH PA benefited from Obama policies and he's likely to be rewarded.
i would be so embarrassed to have to admit that i voted for this evil marxist clown in 2008 that i couldn't talk about anything heavier than the latest mushroom harvest from southern france. what a disgrace he has become on the world stage. that he even garners 10% support tells us more about american liberals than it does about obama, who is nothing short of a third world dictator wannabe. i detest liberal elites and their sycophant weak minded followers.
Even Prez Zero doesnt know himself. Whenever he sees a vote he becomes whatever it will take to get that vote
"They are bone weary of his presidency, and they want it over." That statement just about sums it up for me. I cannot even bear to watch Obama on TV or listen to anything he says. It all rings hollow and self-serving. I am "bone weary" of his presidency and even his voice!
I also am bone weary of his voice. Everyone said he speaks so well, but I can't listen to the halting way he speaks. I think he thinks he is talking on to the ghetto folks….Not racist, just a fact.
"I think he thinks he is talking on to the ghetto folks….Not racist, just a fact." n nwhen did something you think become a fact? n nROMNEY 2012.
As opposed to Mitt Romney's Porky Pig stuttering and inappropriate, near constant nervous chuckling. I mean, seriously, you ever actually listen to that guy debate? He has the most graceless gaffe recovery and pinnochio tells of any human being I've ever seen. n nAll presidents, without exception, lie; I'd at least like one that does it well.
M, as i suspect you of sincerity, let me remind you that it's REPORTERS that are supposed to maintain objectivity and factuality. n n"Journalists" as well as minor political functionaries such as Wehner, ( are you not familiar with Wehner's employment history?) are a different kettle of fish. n nHow in the world you could come to contentions and mistake this joint for a repository of objectivity is sorta …..scary. n n nWhen I first started reading contentions, the people providing the bulk of the content were jennifer Rubin, Abe Greenwald, jamie Kirchick and one other yutz whose name currently escapes me……these lunatics, all third-raters, are impossible to mistake for anyone within shouting distance of objectivity ….or competence. n nthankfully they're all gone except for the most small-minded of them n n
The Reagan comparison doesn't work for two reasons: (1) Romney is unlikeable. (2) There's no way the wooden Romney "outduels" Obama in the debates.
Romney has Indiana, Missouri and Arizona wrapped up. He leads and is starting to pull away in North Carolina. He is slightly ahead, with the momentum going his way, in Florida and Iowa. He is even, with the momentum going his way, in Ohio and Colorado. He is slightly behind, but with the race moving his way, in Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and amazingly, Oregon. n nUnbelievably, all this is occurring while 15-20% of the electorate report that they know little about him and what little they know is negative. n nFrom here, the electorate will get to know him at his convention and will be impressed by his nice family and achievements. He is much better debating on his feet than Obama, so Obama cannot count on a big debate surge. Even Obama friendly economists acknowledge that the jobs numbers for June to October are not going to be friendly. n nAnyone who cannot see the blowout coming needs to set down their glass of white wine and copy of the New Yorker, get in their Prius and drive outside of Manhattan or the Beltway and start talking to people who make less than 100K per year.
keep telling yourself that a race yet unrun is gonna be a "blowout"., n nyou're funny. n nYou can prolly add Utah into Romney's column as well. n nMass of course is going against him.
Excellent column, Mr. Weiner. You are 100% correct on all five points. n nObama basically has to hope that a) Romney says or does something stupid and self-destructs as a candidate, or b) the economy unexpectedly turns upward over the next five months. n nIf neither of these things occurs … and given what's going on in Europe right now, I think that b) is highly unlikely …. Obama will be a one-term president.
Excellent article. Yes, Mr. O is out of ideas. His last speech was a total rerun of all his other worthless speeches. n nWe need Mitt. Please give him your vote in Nov… I for one doesn't want to go over the cliff.
I don't want to see my country go over a cliff, and it is currently on a super express train to do just that under Obama's "leadership," if you can call it that. It seems that he has been campaigning for the past three plus years. When one considers the reasons expounded in this article one must ask a simple question: "Why does Obama even want a second term?" He should learn a lesson from one of his predecessors in the White House, Lyndon B. Johnson, who was weary of the Vietnam War and finally had the manly courage to admit it when he said, "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president." Obama has admitted that he does not know how to improve the economy, so why waste four more years? He should step aside and let someone else try.
You are voting for the facist misimon? Really? Not me, I am voting for AMERICA. nI AM VOTING MITT.
The author is absolutely correct. What has surprised (not exactly astonished) me about Obama is that even though he faces defeat in November—and maybe a big defeat—he has been unable to adjust to reality even one iota. Of course he has his loon base to keep happy, but his own extremist instincts are the deciding factor. And early on he let us know about them, repeatedly making the kinds of statements that strongly suggest what amounts to a very unpresidential point of view. But he has also voiced another set of values that have made voters wonder, in a deeply worried way, about what they put in the White House. n nIt all adds up to a big defeat for Obama this November—no small thing when you’re also a world class narcissist. n
This article should have been titled "5 Reasons I don't like Obama." Asserting that "Polls don't matter because it will break for Romney at the end" is just wishful thinking. Based on current state polling, Obama picks up 291 electoral votes to Romney's 247. A lot can change between now and November, but wishing that Romney were the favorite doesn't make it so.
Explain how any president could ever get anything of substance done…with the other party voting NO on literally ANYTHING proposed? n nThe entire gameplan of the GOP is based on the failure of America.
Can anyone name one thing that Mitt Romney has accomplished in the last five years? n nOther than spending a lot of other peoples' money trying to get the job that the President has, I mean? n nHis crowning achievement as Governor of Massachusetts was the central bulwark for the health care reform that folks seem up in arms about, he signed marriage equality into law in Massachusetts, and now he is against the very things that he supported then. Romney has a challenge ahead, and that is to give concrete policies that he would like to accomplish, as opposed to simply being against anything that the current President is for. Contraian isn't a policy position. I want to hear what he is actually going to stand for, other than vague promises and hazy policies that are just the opposite of what is being done now. n nAccording to his own words, he would have let the auto industry die in this country. According to his own words, saving banks was our highest priority. He wants to take credit for these, yet was no where near a position to do either, other than rooting on the side lines. THAT is his biggest accomplishment in the last five years. Cheerleader. He has taken in a lot of checks, and spent them to vilify folks, but I'm not sure that really counts as an accomplishment. n nAs a resident of Massachusetts I got to see first hand what Romney as an executive does. He instituted policies that the state of Massachusetts is bound to be paying for, for years to come. He instituted projects that will take many years to complete, and has lashed the State to keep pouring money into. He excels at getting money poured out of coffers and into pockets, the question you have to ask is: whose pockets? Why are so many foreign donors pouring money into his campaign? Why are so many foreign media moguls rooting for Romney? n nWho profits? Follow the money, and you will see where Romney's real loyalties lie. It isn't in American interests, and it certainly isn't in the taxpayers' interests…
"Formidable opponent"? You've got to be kidding. The only benefit that Romney has is that he is not Obama (or W). I'll hold my nose to vote for Romney because we can't possibly do worse than we've had the past 11 years, but others will vote for the devil they know.
Yes- Formitable! Right now Obama has no answers for Romney. Everything Obama has tried against him have failed- they've thrown all they have at him and nothing sticks! And to make matters worse- Romney is getting stronger every day! More and more people are buying into his plan- and #5 above is the key factor: All the independents and Conservative Dems will break for Romney late in the game as Obama exhausts all he has in the end. Romney will win in a romp!
Obama told NBC’s Matt Lauer, “I will be held accountable. I’ve got four years… If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.” n nObama possesses a limited skill set. Obamacare has failed to control health costs, that was his promise to the middle class. His stimulus plan has failed. The trillion dollar stimulus was promised to hold unemployment at 8%, it reached a high of 10%. In fact only 200,000 jobs have been created in the 3.5 years since the Obama Democrat stimulus plan was enacted. n nFact 1: Feb 2009 141,687,000 employed Stimulus passed nFact 2: April 2012 141,865,000 employed n nObama has brought nothing but misery, despair and hopelessness to Americans.
One more reason involves race, but not in the way many think. Four years ago many people voted for Obama because he was black. They wanted the symbolism of a black President, and they wanted to prove they weren't racists. Now we are living with the results of that affirmative action gesture, and there are lots of regrets, but mostly in private. People in the media regularly imply that opposition to Obama is basically racism, and I believe that skews the polling data (the "Bradley Effect"), making many people reluctant to voice opposition. As long as Romney has no major stumbles or scandals, many voters who say they like Obama "personally" and are "undecided" (and perhaps ticked off at being called racists when they aren't) will vote for Romney.
As a former local 6 union member in san francisco, the issue of illegal immigration will kill him with the rank and file. Make no mistake about it, the illegals in california have killed jobs for electricians, and what does Obama do? He legalizes another million job seekers to further lower wages. The guy is a clown, and needs to go. With a clear path to salvage the economy, he put on a wig and a pair of pumps, and tired to appease the radical left. Nice one Barry. Enjoy the dinner speech circuit starting in 2013.
I'm voting for Romney (while he wasn't my favorite) anyone is better than the communist we have now. As for social engineering, perhaps you're close on that one, but as for me I'd rather have a "social engineer' who believes in God, values (protecting the most vulnerable/innocent – the unborn babies, etc. ) or at least will TRY. The man we have in there now is concerned about none is these issues–Only about leading the country into the socialist/,marxism route of his previous "Red" comrades.
LOL! n nAt this point the GOP could nominate a ham sandwich and win in November…. n nThe Manchurian Candidates handlers and the apparatchiks in the progressive party now know they have lost the consent of the governed and are quaking in their Bruno Maglis as they see the coming tsunami in November…. n nThe are all hoping for a game changer such as a 'wag the dog' scenario unfold this summer like the bombing of Iran….
Never overestimate the intelligence of the US voter. And don't overestimate the ability of the GOP RINOs to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. Romney is no shoo in by any means.
I didn't think much of Romney to begin with, but he fights! It was hilarious when he had someone circle Oblamers event this week with a Romney bus honking the horn! "Very Tea Party!"
A Radical anti-American Liberal Progressive Socialist-Marxist Obamacrat, or a Mass. Liberal Progressive RINO Republicrat. n nAnother forced choice of the lesser of 2 evils. Thus poses the question- Is this the best we, the American People can do ? n nBut Romney will win, not because Romney is so good, but because Obama is so bad. n nBut Romney's past as Gov of Mass., reflects what Romney will be in the future as President, as he has never veered away from what he was and what he is now. He is a liberal progressive, as he has so publically stated, along with his record as Gov. Thus he has never shown any ability, willingness, or propensity whatsoever to be either conservative in thought, policy, or action, ever. n nNow, the question to Patriotic Constitutional Conservative American Tea Party folks- What are our options and what can we and what must we do in a GOP progressive establishment RINO Administration ? n nThe only way way we can have any say whatsoever in a Romney Presidency, is we must have as many real Reagan Conservative Tea Party folks in Congress as possible to force Romney's hand to govern more conservatively in both domestic policy and international policy. n nThis is only option is this most unenviable position. It's like having GHW Bush win the Primary for the Republican Nomination for US President in 1980, instead of Ronald Reagan. That's right, just about what might not have been, had it not been for Ronald Reagan and his conservative policies and agenda, as opposed to a moderate weak spineless GOP establishment Republican whose policies are the same as the Democrats of expanded govt., excessive govt. spending, borrowing and taxing, and so on…
Interestingly if we can remember the 2008 campaign, one of the reasons that the left promulgated at the end of the campaign for the election of Obama, was how great he ran his campaign! I guess we can use the same reasoning, Romney's campaign has been almost flawless, stunningly so!
many years ago Commentary was a journal of reasoned opinion nit has descended into just another cesspool of neo-con dirty bathwater
Another good sign for America. Conservatism is on the upswing. We are going to take back our nation. n nThe media has plenty of leftist outlets for their propaganda. We need to recapture as much media outlets as possible. n nLeftism is dead….it destroyed itself.
Romney IS a ham sandwich…. with Miracle Whip on Wonder bread with the crusts cut off.
Regarding Reagan/Carter 1980, as a 15 year old I predicted a Reagan landslide in the summer. Double digit inflation, high unemployment, a prime rate of OVER 20%, and the fact that he let the Iranians make a laughing stock of us to the world before his half-@$$ed "rescue" attempt, THERE WAS NO WAY HE WAS GETTING RE-ELECTED! I've never believed the polls from the liberal media. Keep in mind that these are the same crooks who called Florida for Gore AN HOUR BEFORE THE POLLS CLOSED IN THE PANHANDLE, COSTING GWB AN ESTIMATED 30,000 VOTES. Of course they all denied responsibility in trying to throw an election, but that's what they have tried and will continue to do. DON'T BELIEVE THE LIES OF THE LIBERAL MEDIA!!!
As a Canadian observing the US political process with nothing in the game other then the economy of my country in relation to yours, I have two serious points and a question to ask all those on the left and right. n1: Your President ordered the death of a US citizen on foreign soil, without trial or due process, whether the victim deserved it or not. n2: Your President has just informed your country on Friday that he will not enforce the laws for immigration fully as his constitutional mandate and oath as President dictates he must. nDo none of you see a problem with this? nI heard for years the left bash Bush for being an "Imperial President", but I never heard of Bush ordering the death of a US citizen without due proces, nor refusing to enforce such a basic and fundamental law as immigration. n
OK mikefoxtrot, Romney is "white bread with the crusts off". So forget about the crumbling economy, bloody crackdowns by dictators all over the world, nulear concerns with Iran, etc. and let's worry about which presidential candidate is "cool" and which one is "boring". Really?
I don't know if Romney is the favorite although he's competitive. Maybe the choice of VP will tell us more. As before this election is of interest to Israel because we've got to do something about the push for nukes in Iran. The last time polls in Israel showed McCain running at 70 per cent and exit polls of American Israelis voting reached 85 per cent. This time the situation in the region is far worse. Egypt could be become a big problem and even yesterday a Grad missile was fired from the Sinai into Israel. A government who's sympathetic to the radicals could make that situation much worse. Syria could go any possible way even to a big war. And we forget there's no one watching the store in Iraq. Obama is simply not trusted and he's done nothing in his term to change that impression. At one point he got off a tangent where they criticized us from not turning over a building to the family of a Nazi war criminal in Jerusalem, which was confiscated way back because he was a Nazi war criminal. The only reason he didn't go completely ape in driving his agenda to give the Arabs the eastern end of our capital Jerusalem and everything else without negotiations is that the guy is lazy. But that's a two-edged sword. There is an eastern part of Jerusalem because the Jews who were the majority were driven out in the 1948 war. We recaptured it in the 1967 war and didn't drive out the Arabs who had come in but in the eyes of Obama that war doesn't count, only the first one.
The only people that should be voting Obama are those on the government gravy train. Even union members should be able to figure out that he is in way over his head. I only hope he gets defeated soundly enough to prevent either dead Chicago voters or an Al Franken type of election theft from working.
anybody but obama. If the economy is not good, nothing is good.
What's really frustrating about this election, as with so many of our elections, is that it seems the citizens are not thrilled with either choice. Obama promised big things and didn't come through. I believe he was left with a huge mess left by the former republican President, and after 2006 had a Congress bent on destroying him. That being said, he has not lived up to expectations. But Romney worries me, with his neo-conservative foreign policy talk (yeah, we really need that again), and closed-minded view of gay rights, etc. Cultural issues are important to many people, b/c a lot of us want a leader who is open minded and who promotes tolerance, not division and hate. Romney could potentially be great on the economy, but I feel that the economy tends to rise and fall regardless of what the White House does or doesn't do. For me, President Obama should be given the chance to serve his second term, and then we'll decide if, overall, he has failed as President. Plus, I think, without an election to worry about, Obama will be much stronger and bolder with his agenda, instead of trying to appease everyone (which is impossible in this country, sadly.).
Peter, would you consider the following:
1} Discuss the practicality of Romney mulling over the possibility of investing all or part of his US Presidential salary in paying down the US debt.
2} Develop Romney’s progressive agenda, based upon bringing professional jobs back to the US with concern for the environment.
Thanks
Elie