Egypt has had quite a wild ride since the Tahrir Square protests ousted longtime strongman Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. Ever since, the carousel of Egyptian politics has gyrated wildly, but it seems it was spinning in a circle the whole time. Far from seeing the inauguration of a new democracy, we appear to be witnessing the transition from rule by one former general to collective rule by a bunch of active-duty generals. Egypt seems to be moving in the direction of pre-reform Burma–even the names of the two ruling juntas are remarkably similar and sinister: SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) in Egypt; SLORC (State Law and Order Restoration Council) in Burma.
In both cases, the generals are claiming to save the people from the messy untidiness of democracy. In Egypt, that case has been somewhat strengthened by the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood and hard-line Salafists won the vast majority of parliamentary seats and that a Brotherhood candidate, Mohamed Morsi, won this weekend’s presidential election. Even before the presidential results had been announced, the SCAF had dissolved parliament and instituted decrees that limit the new president’s power to largely ceremonial functions. All that remains to be seen is how the Brotherhood–the largest and most powerful non-governmental organization in Egypt–will react. Will the generals’ actions be quietly accepted, as they were in Turkey in 1980, or will they spark a bloody civil war, as they did in Algeria in 1992? Regardless, it is a tragedy that the will of the Egyptian people, who plainly long for Western-style democracy and not an Iranian-style theocracy or a sclerotic police state, is being thwarted.
I do not envy President Obama having to figure out how to respond. The American interest in democracy appears, in this case, to be at odds with our strategic interest, which is working with the Egyptian military, as we have since the 1970s, rather than trying to deal with the anti-Western, anti-Israel Brotherhood. The U.S. has considerable leverage over the process, thanks to the $1.3 billion in military aid that we provide to Egypt every year. How the U.S. uses that leverage can help to shape the outcome.
Tempting as it is for the U.S. to acquiesce in the military’s latest power grab, it is a mistake. The military is either ushering in the day of reckoning (if civil war breaks out) or delaying it (if it doesn’t). Either way, Egypt’s long-term prospects are not served by this decision, because it will allow the Brotherhood to claim the cloak of martyrdom. The best bet in the long run for weakening Brotherhood authority would be to allow it to rule. Already, the Brotherhood’s appeal seems to have declined since the parliamentary elections which ended in January. Undoubtedly, if the Brotherhood were granted full authority over Egypt’s dysfunctional state and anemic economy, its popularity would decline some more–unless it were able to moderate its wilder instincts and deliver real results. By keeping the Brotherhood out of power, the SCAF is taking upon itself all the blame for Egypt’s dire condition–not a wise long-term bet.
The U.S. will share that popular opprobrium if it appears to connive in this military coup. Obama would be better advised to tell the generals, in no uncertain terms, that they need to take a step back from the political arena. The military should still have a role to play but only as a guarantor of the election process. As long as a Brotherhood government must face voters in the future, popular sentiment will act as a check on its illiberal tendencies. The days of military rule have long passed in Egypt. The military just doesn’t know it yet.
'Democracy uber alles', even when its not freedom. n nIs that what you are saying? n nIf the American slaves had said 'we like slavery', and voted for it, democracy style, would you support it?
Not a good alternative. There probably is not any ‘good’ alternative. Look at Turkey. If the military had bounced Erdogan, Turkey and Israel may have still been friends instead of bitter enemies. The transition from a military or totalitarian rule to a real democracy could and should take many decades of education and enlightenment. We haven’t really gotten there yet in the USA.
There doesn't appear to be any 'good' alternative to a military government in Egypt. Look at Turkey. If the Turkish military had bounced Erdogan, then Israel and Turkey may have remained friends. Turkey under Erdogan, even cost many American soldiers lives by denying us entry into Iraq via Turkey. It is clear that the only friend of the US in the middle East is Israel. Egypt was at least quiet in an unstable sort of way, with Mubarak. With volatile events unfolding in the Sinai and the Muslim extremists about to take control in Cairo, I cannot see how anyone can wish for a Muslim Brotherhood control of Egypt to prove how incompetent they will be. Better a competent military maintaining a delicate peace in the Sinai.
"The days of military rule have long passed in Egypt." n nPathetic, Herr Boot. "The days of military rule" will end when the military says it will end.
Oh yeah, just like it was a marvelous idea to permit Hamas to run. It's a rock and a hard place to be sure, over there in Egypt. But what those whose writings seem, seem, most on target suggest to me that like Iran in 1979 and Hamas, being elected is no guarantor of future democratic elections. n nHistory has shown that one of the weaknesses of democratic process is its vulnerability to manipulation by those with fascist tendencies. Allowing the Brotherhood to rule runs the real risk of no future elections. Thus, a rock and a hard place.
Perhaps someone at the Center for American Progress or the NY Times can explain why it was "smart diplomacy" for Obama to endorse (and facilitate) the ouster of Mubarak and Gaddafi. As the saying goes, better the devil you know than the devil you don't.
Personally I just hope that AngryGrampsGrumpy doesn't use the occasion of a Jewish neoconservative advocating popular rule by MB as another launch to yet another non sequitur denunciation of Zionist "cousins marrying cousins." For better or for worse it is likely that Max has zero influence on anybody in Egypt playing out this game.
"As long as a Brotherhood government must face voters in the future, popular sentiment will act as a check on its illiberal tendencies"? Is that the illiberal tendencies that are rooted in religion and that the vast majority of the population supports? Or the illiberal tendencies that Hamas continues to indulge in, regardless of popular opinion?
Egypt since the Pharaohs has never had any tradition of democracy. nTrying to impose Western concepts on that ancient nation makes no more sense than the idea of imposing communism. nReligion is what gives Egyptians a sense of law and order so naturally the masses voted for the Islamic candidate. nThe army is the strongest organization in the country. It controls the economy and knows that feeding 85 million people cannot be done except if peace and stability are assured. Therefore a military junta will keep the peace with Israel and control the wilder impulses of a fundamentalist president, elected with US blessings on so called Egyptian democracy. n nDavid Zohar n(retired Israeli diplomat)
And isn't Israel so much safer now with Iran under the firm hand of the Shah? n nAnd pardon my ignorance, but kindly remind me of ancient Israel's long tradition of democracy.
Nothing safeguards democracy like the dissolution of elected legislatures and a confiscation of power by military generals, including claiming for themselves the power to appoint all the delegates to their upcoming constitution. n nThe parliamentary elections were premature, and many people said so beforehand. They don't yet have a new constitution and the Brotherhood and Islamist parties were the only ones organized enough to run good campaigns. The Islamists attempted their own power grab in parliament, leading to the dissolution order when it was clear that the liberal politicians and crowds would half-welcome a reset. n nBut instead of taking a step back and trying to do things better by setting up a civilian transitional government and drafting a constitution with proportional input from all political and ideological actors, the military has apparently decided to form a junta and run the country themselves, officially and indefinitely. So much for any pretense of honor. n nAbsolute power corrupts absolutely.