The downfall of dictators is often their stupidity, arrogance, and unbridled aggression. Saddam Hussein might have stayed in power if he had simply admitted not having weapons of mass destruction. Muammar Qaddafi could have survived if he had not made blood-curdling statements about massacring everyone in Benghazi. And Bashar al-Assad would have a greater chance of survival had not his aircraft defenses shot down a Turkish Air Force F-4 yesterday.
It is still unclear exactly what happened, but the result will surely be to increase Turkey’s role—already substantial—in helping the Syrian opposition.
It could even spark the creation of “safe zones” inside Syria and make a NATO intervention more likely. The anti-aircraft gunners who brought down the Turkish jet could not have done more damage to their leader if they had tried.
That depends on how much stomach Turkey has to take on Syria, Hezbollah, Iran and the Kurds as well as Russia's material support. Turkey may decide that the jewel in their crown, the ABM radar installation they've made a huge deal of pushing in Israel's face provides little real benefit when confronted by more conventional and asymmetric powers on 3 fronts at the same time. Let's not forget that Erdogan has gutted his senior military ranks, accusing them all of treason and replacing them with Islamist flunkies. Turkey may think they can create a conflict between his opponents and all of NATO but as we saw in Libya and in Afghanistan, NATO countries don't have to participate of they don't want to. And few if any believe Turkey's story that their plane was shot down completely unprovoked which would otherwise compel NATO states to join in.
A lot of good points, Trudy. Turkey has isolated herself from her former protectors and benefactors with her new pro-muslim leanings. I think this will help Syria stave off an air attack because now everyone knows there will be losses.
Yeah, i suspect that is was a major mistake…. turkey was already committed to toppling the Assads, but the difference between working toward a goal and being fervent for it is about to demonstrated. n nIsrael found out that Turkey can get its back up when someone kills Turkish citizens, Syria is gonna get to know that the Turks aren't gonna forget or forgive killing a member of its armed forces.