Many in the Obama administration may have heaved a sigh of relief this morning when Egypt’s election commission declared Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi the winner of the country’s presidential election. There were justifiable fears that the Egyptian military would complete the coup d’état it began when the country’s high court tossed the Islamist-controlled parliament out of office by stealing the presidential contest for its preferred candidate. By choosing to attempt to live with the Brotherhood rather than attempt to destroy it, the army may have avoided a bloody civil war that would have drowned Egypt in blood and destabilized the region even further.
But as much as Washington is relieved that the next stage of life in post-Mubarak Egypt will not be one in which the military rules alone, President Obama must resist the impulse to embrace Morsi or to behave in any manner that might lend support to the Brotherhood leader in the power struggle in Cairo that will undoubtedly ensue. As much as the United States should support the principle of democracy, Morsi and his party are no apostles of freedom. Though worries about the U.S. being tainted by association with a military who wishes to perpetuate authoritarian rule are well founded, the danger from a rising tide of Islamism in the wake of the Arab Spring is far more dangerous to American interests.
Too many in the administration have been taken in by the Brotherhood’s propaganda in which they have represented themselves as having no interest in imposing their fundamentalist principles on all of Egypt and the region. Inviting Brotherhood representatives to meet with senior administration officials earlier this year was mistake. As Eli Lake reported in the Daily Beast this week, this even extended to granting a visa to a known member of an active terrorist group.
The Brotherhood claims they will use Turkey’s Islamists as their model. That’s something that should provide little comfort to those who have watched as a secular state heads down the path of extremism at home and confrontation with Israel abroad. But the extremist character of the Islamist movement is difficult to conceal. Were the Brotherhood ever to seize control of all power in Cairo it would not only mean an end to any hope for democracy in Egypt, it would undermine the stability of other Arab countries.
That’s why it would be folly for President Obama to side with Morsi in the coming months or to give the impression that he supports the Brotherhood’s efforts to stop the military from acting as a check on its power.
It bears repeating that there are no good choices available to the United States in Egypt. President Obama has been woefully remiss in attempting to promote democracy, a policy that he seems to associate with the George W. Bush administration and therefore something to be avoided. There are not enough genuine liberals in Egypt, meaning the only real options are the military and the Brotherhood. America should choose neither.
Jonathan,
I can’t believe what you wrote! The military is the only institution in Egypt that can stop a Muslim Brotherhood takeover.
Democracy is not simply a matter of arithmetic and counting the votes. If you had lived in the 1930s, you would have endorsed Hitler’s taking power because most but not all Germans supported him.
In my view a military dictatorship is the lesser of two evils. If you and the Obama Administration get it your way, the Middle East will drown in a sea of blood.
The Egyptians in a word, must be kept by force if necessary, from becoming slaves to themselves. If its necessary to destroy democracy to save Egypt from a far worse fate so be it.
Millions of lives hang in the balance.
It's fairly obvious the MB will distance itself from the US on its own. There is no shared political interest other than keeping the stream of aid open which Obama already said he would ensure. The MB will string along Obama and make the appropriate noises which this administration is more than happy to delude themselves about anyhow. Of course it remains to be seen whether the kidnapping program from earlier in the year, that resulted in Sec Panetta swooping in to lavish military gear on them will continue. I suspect no since the MB has little vested interest in keeping the army equipped. But the real trump card will be how loud the MB threats to attack Israel are and whether Obama thinks they're credible. Egypt will not assault Israel with a politically unreliable army but it will quietly arm the Sinai for 'unnamed militants' to attack Israel as their proxy.
Trudy, you seem not to grasp that the winner of the election doesn't have necessarily hope all that much power in Egypt. You seem to have the idea that the MB will be deciding Egypt foreign policy and fail to understand that our military aid to Egypt serves OUR interests.
Since the Fed. gov't. is so deeply in debt, I am not really sure how it benefits the US to send so much aid to Egypt every year. What exactly does it benefit the US? Foreign aid is a luxury I doubt the Fed. gov't. can afford anymore.
I'm sorry that you don't understand, but I'll venture to say that being the benefactor to Egypt's military 1) brings large benefits; and 2) isn't all that costly as the money returns to US companies and (in theory) reduces the costs to the govt for our arms purchases.
Hey, it's borrowed Chinese money anyways at this point.
baksheesh can do that short term. But that's all it is.
as the Muslim Brotherhood either has to change or perish, and can only exist as is in the short-term, we can live with that, Your Highness.
The US has every reason to offer public congratulations to the new Egyptian president and no reason to do anything other. n nUS policy is to be conducted to advance US interests, Tobin, not anyone else's, and influence in Egypt is very much IN US interests. nWe don't get to select the president of Egypt, who has yet to do anything objectionable (or anything at all) any more than we get to select the Prime Minister of Israel, who has done much that is objectionable.
And the Germans elected and rallied around their new leader Adolph Hitler. Three cheers for 'democracy' by an illiterate brain washed electorate. And three cheers to Obama who has stood by and thus helped all this come about. And three more cheers to Bush (and his bowl full of Rice [State Department chief honcha]), for encouraging Hamas and Gaza.
when you can demonstrate the equivalence that you're implying, please do so. it's pretty hard for me not to speak ill of an MB member, but it's far from clear that the president will not be hemmed in by the military. n nafter long decades of authoritarian misrule and miseducation of the populace, we're gonna have to expect a damned bumpy transition to democracy in the Middle East. n nmewling and making comparisons to Hitler and his absolute dictatorship seems to be taking a the view that a worse than the worst case outcome is possible when it's really not.
well, the Egyptians live in Egypt, not us. Israel will have to be vigilant but the society of Egypt will have to play out its own problems. Two years ago nobody predicted that Syria would break down into sectarian butchery. Maybe Egypt will be a happy surprise. Either way we are not puppet masters there.
quite correct, everyone expected that the Assad family would continue to hold a monopoly on Syrian butchery , just as they have monopolies on all other commercial and societal forms of intercourse.
left and right, mikefoxtrot, people seem to think that other people in other nations are not quite as real as they themselves are and that free will doesn't operate. like its easier to control the outcome of whole nations than, say, to sort out the long-running dispute over the backyard patio that Uncle Harry insists just needs a redwood all-season railing and Aunt Ethel insists should be replaced by a swimming pool, so "Yankele can bring his friends over like the next door kids." But hey, determining the future of Egypt, el problemo!!!! but note Bibi is staying out–if the military or the MB will work with Israel fine. If the Camp David Agreement with Egypt is nullified that will have to be worked. But he's what you can get as a centrist in the MEast.
I posted on the thread the gist of Netanyahu's remark on the election….and Morsi has gone on record as saying that he's not going to repudiate the treaty. …. and while I'm not sure that I would call Morsi a moderate I'm pretty dam certain that Tobin ain't one.
I wouldn't classify Syria's current state as one of "sectarian butchery," besht. There are in Syria only two real sides at the moment (as can be seen by the two alignments of states, one of Russia and Iran, the other of Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the US, etc.), and the first to fire did so for reasons all too easy to understand (while those second to fire did so for reasons also sympathetic to the understanding). n nAnd perhaps I see things in terms far too Bush-ish, but, in the limited context of throwing off the yoke of Assad, the Syrian rebels are legitimate. n nAs far as Egypt goes, I am somewhat optimistic. What's more to be hoped for (if you are against these) than the restraint and shaming of hostile actors, with their chief monitoring being by a non-disposed guard?
like build apartments for Jews in Jerusalem? shudder.
apartments for Jews in Jerusalem good. decade long delay in allowing Jerusalem's non-Jews to add a new room to a house on land that they own, not so good. n navoiding being cruel when you can, priceless. n n
JERUSALEM (Reuters) — Israel voiced respect on Sunday for the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt's presidential election, calling on the new administration in Cairo to maintain the countries' peace accord. n n"Israel appreciates the democratic process in Egypt and respects its outcome," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said in a statement after the Brotherhood's candidate, Muhammad Mursi, was declared successor to ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. n n"Israel expects continue cooperation with the Egyptian administration on the basis of the peace accord between the two countries, which is in the interest of the two peoples and contributes to regional stability," the statement said. n
Israel is far less frisky than it was until the Lebanese interventions went sidewise, south and circular. Sure, military action could conceivably be initiated, in Gaza, or even Iran, or in extemis G-d forbid, Sinai. But nobody's looking for this and nobody expects action to be any more miraculously successful than Bar Koziba's rebellion against the Romans. Judaism, much less 20th century Zionism after the Holocaust in a neighborhood where students of the Nazi beasts still troll their trade–is not pacifist–but the essence of Judaism is not a lust to kill your neighbors;
Israel isn't looking for any major military adventure and there is not any real possibility of anything more than a skirmish with Iran or Egypt. n nthe only looming chance for a war is against Hezbollah.
too many in the administration have been "taken in" by the MB? please. when DNI James Clapper said the Brotherhood was a "largely secular" group he was WILFULLY closing his eyes to the facts. we out here in flyover country who don't have Harvard degrees were able to see that; why weren't they? n nyou have to understand that Barack Obama is not interested in protecting Israel. a second-term Obama will be able to fully indulge his sympathy for the Palestinians. yet another great reason for my Jewish brothers and sisters to vote Republican this time.
Clapper just sounds like a busted ding-dong. That his claptrap has an official imprimatur can be laid at O's doorstep but James could just be genuinely a clueless twit.
The announcement by the Egyptian election commission was undoubtedly the decision of the military and a clever one at that. The military has already stripped the parliament of its MB members and stripped the presidency of any power over the military whatsoever, so the decision to allow Morsi to take up residence as the figurehead of Egypt makes for sensible power politics. Let Morsi be the one to preside over what is going to be a terrible economic period as Egypt has to find a way to replenish its cash reserves and feed its people. The safe bet is that Egyptians will be hailing the Army as heroes when the economy completely collapses and the Army has to step in to save the country from Morsi's policies (no matter what those policies may be).
excellent point, TS…whatever those policies may be, they'll cause the collapse of the Egyptian economy…..and that economy was as vibrant and large as all get-out until the moment that Morsi declared his candidacy……..