According to the political analyst Charles Cook:
We are past the point where Obama can win a referendum election, regardless of whether it is on him or the economy. The success of his campaign is contingent upon two things. First, when focusing on the narrow sliver of undecided voters, between 6 and 8 percent of the electorate, the Obama team must make its candidate the lesser of two evils. It has to make the prospect of a Mitt Romney presidency so unpalatable that about half of those undecided voters will begrudgingly vote for reelection. Polling focusing on the undecided voters reveals they are a deeply pessimistic and angry segment of the electorate and don’t particularly like either candidate (fitting, because they don’t tend to like politicians). But they show signs of being more conservative than not. One unpublished analysis gives Republicans a 10-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot test among those undecided about the presidential race. Close analysis of the numbers shows that Obama might have an edge with between a third and a quarter of the currently undecided bloc. That’s cutting things awfully close. [emphasis added]
In addition, the Gallup organization released a new survey that shows the Economic Confidence Index was -26 for the week ending June 24. Americans’ confidence has now receded for four straight weeks and is at the lowest point since late January.
These findings aren’t surprising, but they are, for the president, alarming.
The closer we’re getting to the election, the worse the news is for the president. It isn’t the situation he wants, but it’s one he has increasingly little control over.
When Miyamoto Musashi got off the boat for his duel with Sasaki Kojiro at Genryujima in 1612 the other duelist ran to the shore unsheathed his sword and threw away his scabbard. Miyamoto reputedly said to his opponent, “You’ve already lost," and proceeded to win the duel decisively. I feel the same way about Obama that Miyamoto felt about Sasaki. n nThe President has already lost.
"Close analysis of the numbers shows that Obama might have an edge with between a third and a quarter of the currently undecided bloc. That’s cutting things awfully close." n nA close election favors Obama because then ballot stuffing, bushels of "suddenly discovered" absentee ballots, and related skullduggery can be employed. There were indications that Scott Brown's election was similarly imperiled until he was able to win by 5%
What is amazing is that the battleground states- the toss-ups, in other words- are now Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, even Michigan. Deep blue states ! and the states that Obasma won, like North Carolina, Virigina, Florida, seem to be out of his reach…..This will be an amazing election- and ballot stuffing is not going ot help Obama!
This is all true but you have to factor in the as yet undetermined electoral votes that will come in for Obama from Mexico.
Prediction: the economic news will continue to be lackluster through early August and then, up to and through and after the DNC on Labor Day, the news about the economy will suddenly start getting better, as if by magic. The Statist Media will be spinning things so furiously that the Iranians will be taking notes for improvements to their centrifuges. The JournoListers are already coordinating the various messages. Then the polls will start coming out that indicate a "gathering momentum" for El Presidente and a "groundswell of support" and a new feeling of optimism and show El Presidente starting to pull ahead to a "commanding lead" (in order to discourage GOP voters).