The recent attack by Pakistan Taliban fighters, based in Afghanistan, into Pakistan, where they killed 13 Pakistani soldiers, has not gotten the attention it deserves.
The Pakistani Taliban fighters fled the Swat Valley in Pakistan after a Pakistani army assault beginning in 2009. They found refuge in Kunar and Nuristan provinces–remote areas of eastern Afghanistan where the U.S. Army fought many fierce battles (Sebastian Junger’s book War and his film “Restrepo” are set here) before pulling back. That pullback was undertaken because these frontier regions are not major population centers but, because U.S. forces are no longer there in substantial numbers, various insurgents have been able to filter back in. This should serve as a stark warning of what can happen, on a far larger scale, if the U.S. pulls out prematurely from Afghanistan, either before or after 2014.
The Council on Foreign Relations has just published my Policy Innovation Memorandum suggesting what it will take to secure recent gains in Afghanistan. Among the most important steps that I urge are not cutting funding for the Afghan security forces and not cutting U.S. force levels prematurely. This may be a hard sell for a war-weary nation, but consider the alternative. If the Afghan Taliban come back into power, it seems safe to say their territory will be a staging ground for various multinational terrorists. The most prominent of these groups is al-Qaeda, which remains alive despite all of the losses it has suffered recently. But just as worrisome is the Pakistani Taliban, which poses a mortal threat to the nuclear-armed state of Pakistan.
By maintaining stability in Afghanistan, we also enhance the survival prospects of the shaky Pakistani state. If we pull out completely, the recent raid by the Pakistani Taliban will be a harbinger of terrible things to come.
Aside from Pakistan having nukes, am having difficulty justifying backing such an unreliable 'ally'.
Here's the only, viable strategy that is cost-effective, politically plausible to the American people, and has any chance at keeping the Islamists at bay in A-stan, and I'm offering it free of charge. You can thank me later. n nA-stan requires a strategy that matches the social development of the country, to wit: 9th Century (with cell phones). This means effectively a federal country that is broken up into ethnic regions and ruled by warlords or tribal leaders. The U.S. cuts deals *now* with as many provincial players as we can who will agree to: 1) keep their fiefdom free of al-Qaeda/Taliban/Islamists, and; 2) grant the U.S. basing rights— but NO F.O.B.s, please– for drones, SOF and intel to the extent we want/need it. In exchange, we supply them with basic weapons and ammunition to maintain their fiefdom along with a modest amount of cash. If the warlord gets in a pinch (such as a large Taliban force) we will send over some B-52's with munitions guided by CIA types on horseback and wipe them out and return to Kansas for breakfast. We don't get involved in their 9th Century lifestyle or try to impose democracy on them. Any government in Kabul is strictly concerned with foreign affairs and domestic issues that require national coordination— like maintaining their interstate goat paths. Otherwise we are out. No big footprint. No multi-billion dollar aid programs etc… n nAs for Pakistan, we work the same deal with the Pashtuns across the border: keep the Islamists in check (or better yet, wipe them out— maybe a bounty system for every Al Qaeda scalp) and let us use your territory when we need it with no questions asked, and you get to run your fiefdom as you like. Of course, on the Pak side of the border, this is all covert, hush-hush stuff, but don't see the Pak's complaining since they don't seem to care what happens in the FATA anyway. n nOr we could go with the experts' plan which will waste billions of dollars on a national Afghan Army that will *never* be a cohesive, national army in any sense to stand up to the Islamists. And the central govt in A-stan is not going to have the allegiance of the people no matter how much money we throw away there. And we will be back there again with bombers and laser guided munitions after the next terror attack.
Pakistan should deal alone with its Talibans.