Three rounds of the P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran have proven President Obama’s “window of diplomacy” a colossal failure. But Secretary of State Clinton as well as various administration cheerleaders have been reminding us lately that the international sanctions on Tehran that have been belatedly put in place are just about to really bite. At the end of the month, the West will impose an oil embargo on Iran that could really hurt its economy and perhaps bring the regime to its knees if it is universally observed and vigorously enforced.
But today’s announcement that the Obama administration will grant China and Singapore a six-month exemption from the sanctions shows the confident manner the Iranians displayed at the nuclear talks was not a false front. Having forearmed themselves in the period leading up to the sanctions by securing more contracts with the Chinese, Iran dared the Americans to risk a confrontation with Beijing. The result is that Tehran’s belief President Obama and his Western allies are bluffing has been confirmed rather than debunked. This will act as a virtual green light for the Iranians to keep pushing ahead toward their nuclear goal while Western leaders posture but do little to stop them.
The dirty secret about the Western sanctions on Iran is that their leader advocate has never bothered to enforce them. The weak sanctions that were in place were selectively policed by the United States, with the Treasury Department granting exemptions to thousands of firms that allowed them to go on doing business there. But that is nothing when compared to giving China and Singapore, two of Iran’s major business partners, a free pass to conduct business as usual.
It is true that Chinese imports from Iran dropped 25 percent in the first six months of 2012, a factor that the administration used as an excuse to justify their exemptions. But oil analysts are predicting that far more Iranian oil will be sold to China this summer due to the contracts that Tehran wisely signed with Beijing in order to compensate for any European losses. Though Clinton has argued that the world must be gradually weaned from Iranian oil, what is happening is that Iran is simply changing its customer list and counting on the enormous clout of the Chinese to deter the Americans from cracking down on those who violate the embargo.
Thus, rather than Iran spending the summer feeling even more isolated, the ayatollahs can point to the U.S. exemptions as yet another diplomatic victory that will allow them to continue on their nuclear path.
Even if the sanctions were enforced now, it may be too late to completely stop the Iranians without resorting to the use of force. Having wasted the first three and a half years of his administration on a comical attempt to “engage” Iran and in feckless negotiations, President Obama is now speaking as if he has Tehran just where he wants it. But all he has accomplished is to kick the can down the road just as his predecessor did. Though the sporadically enforced sanctions are hurting Iran, the Iranians don’t seem to be anywhere close to giving up.
To the contrary, the more the West talks about getting tough, the more Iran believes talk is all they will do. The exemptions will only reinforce their conviction that President Obama is a paper tiger who also only wishes to keep the diplomatic process going in order to deter Israel from attacking Iran and to keep the issue from bubbling up during his re-election campaign. Iran is acting as if it is winning the confrontation with the West over its quest for a nuclear weapon. But after today, who can blame them?
unilateral assertions from Tobin who really has no idea what's going on with the sanctions or Iran. n nThe big idea is that the sanctions hurt only Iran, not the nations that we need to enforce sanctions on Iran.
Do you really think religious fanatics will be turned from carrying out what they perceive as Allah's will no matter how effective sanctions are? I'll grant you that maybe even a majority of Iran's population are not so fanatic, but unfortunately (and Obama did what he could to contribute to this remaining the case when he gave demonstrators absolutely no support), those who are not fanatics have no say in the government. It's only speculation, granted, but I do not believe the religious fanatics care if they themselves are hurt by sanctions, let alone those not ready to kill Jews and Americans with their very last ounce of strength.
you're absolutely right Keith. if Iran truly believes that they need nuke capability, they will not stop until they get it. it should be obvious by now that the mullahs don't particularly care about the welfare of their citizens, or they wouldn't have beaten the crap out of so many of them when those citizens tried to rise up. n nif we were going to be realistic, there's only one thing that can stop Iran, and its initials are IDF.
Keith, when you define people as immune to pressure you aren't asking a serious question. n nIran's leaders have dep and deeply repugnant beliefs, but nothing shows them to be immune to pressure s of various kinds. n nwere they as you describe, the iranians wouldn't hide their weapons program, terrorist activities and other transgressions. n n nI don't suppose that you've ever noticed that when Iran sends out suicide bombers, they aren't Iranian.. Perhaps you should re-think a little bit. n nThere's no evidence to support your contention and much that doesn't support it.
When I was watching Obama grace millions of illegal Mexicans defacto citizenship I couldn't help wondering if, god forbid Iran got their hands on the bomb and used it and a few million Israelis, Jews and Arabs alike were forced to flee and pleaded with the US to let them in. n nWho am I kidding, he'd laugh and throw them an anchor as they floated in the waves.
The Iranians are gambling for high stakes. So, no, I disagree with Mr. Tobin this time, The Persians are worried. They are counting on The Russians and The Chinese. Can either one be trusted. I do not think so.
Syrian President Chinless Wonder is about to play the role of Alex in the final scene of The Alfred Hitchcock thriller, Notorious. He is toast and he knows it. My guess is that at the end of the day, Putin will sacrifice Assad. Let’s just say he is not a happy camper, afraid to have a meal without his food tasters on hand. That is no life.
I assure you ****** is calling up reserves, right now.
We have a strategic oil reserve because it is in the national interest. China would seem to have the same kind of interest in protecting their economy from temporary supply shocks. They could get rid of their excess dollars at the same time. It is another case of free markets confounding government planners static views of the world and the fungibility of money.