A USA Today/Gallup poll of 12 swing states doesn’t tell us much we didn’t already know about the presidential race. It’s very tight, with President Obama holding a slim 47-45 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney in the 12 states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin) that are likely to decide the election. However, the significant figure Democrats will be crowing about is not that two-point edge that is well within the poll’s four-point margin of error. Rather, it is the fact that eight percent of those polled say the political ads they have seen in recent months have influenced their opinions. As the pollsters rightly assume, it isn’t likely that a brief television commercial will change anyone’s opinion of the president — about whom most voters have entrenched views be they positive or negative — but that means the deluge of negative Democratic ads about Mitt Romney have changed some minds about the Republican nominee.
That’s good news for Democrats who understand that sliming the challenger is the only way for a president who can’t run on his record to gain re-election. The bad news is that if the smears directed at Romney’s business record have only managed to keep Obama relatively even with his opponent, it’s a sign he’s in trouble. Contrary to the Pollyannas of political punditry who say such attacks hurt the candidate who throws the mud, going negative is actually quite effective. But while the Democrats can help themselves by seeking to solidify the image of Romney as an out-of-touch rich guy in the minds of the public, the president’s efforts to shift the blame for the poor economy on his predecessors are not working as well. That means the president’s campaign has locked itself into a box in which the only way to go is to continue escalating their attacks on Romney. That’s worrisome for Romney but also doesn’t give Democrats much room for winning over independents who are more concerned about the parlous state of the economy than about Romney’s wealth.
In a close election, what both sides need more than anything else is to turn out their bases. Negative ads about Romney and Obama will help in that regard. The analogy that comes up most often is the way Republican abuse of John Kerry energized conservatives and hurt the Democrat’s efforts to win over independents. The assault on Kerry worked because he was an elitist who had little sympathy for the views of most Americans. Yet each election and each candidate is different. Romney does have a problem connecting with ordinary voters, and the attacks on his record at Bain Capital have done some damage. Romney is a rich guy, but for all of his wealth, he epitomizes the sort of mom and apple pie traditionalism that is hard to hate. Efforts to portray him as weird or sinister are not likely to succeed in the long run because they don’t fit in with his basic character.
Democrats may say they are just getting warmed up in their campaign to slime Romney, but if they get too focused on his personality or background they will be fighting a losing game. Despite his awkward public persona, his flaws don’t really lend themselves to the hate being whipped up against him. At a time when the economy is failing, his image as a wealthy business wiz can help rather than hurt him.
With less than four months to go before Americans go to the polls, the Obama campaign has already emptied its bag of tricks and finds itself effectively tied with the GOP. With a well-funded Romney effort able to answer the Democratic attacks and redouble their own assaults on Obama’s record, the question for the president is whether he will have any cards left to play once the effort to demonize Romney falls short of the mark.
As I stated with your previous post on this topic, Romney still needs something to attract voters because he simply cannot rely on a "anybody but Obama" vote. George Will aptly characterized Romney's campaign as "trying to run out the clock". That just won't work. n nWe have a dead economy – little growth, few jobs, and little signs of any sector improving. Despite that the candidates are tied. That's simply not a good sign for the challenger. n nMy guess is that these attacks on Romney will have marginal success. But in a very close race that marginality may be the difference. n nRomney must go on the offensive.
Romney will go on the offensive when the time is right. The time isn't right. Despite all of Obama's frenzied attempts to slime Romney with labels like "vulture capitalist" and "outsourcer-in-chief" the poll numbers haven't budged. n nObviously this line of attack is having little effect, and the economy is moving against Obama. So why not let him and the Democrats "punch theselves out" and save up money and resources for when it really does matter, which is late in the summer when people will really start seriosly tuning in to the race? n nBy that time, people will be interested in seeing "the other side" of the Romney story, and that's when presenting it will have the most effect. Obama is a known quantity now. People have formed their opinions of him, either favorably or unfavorably. So that fact that he can't seem to rise above 46-47% in the polls is favorable for Romney. n nAll people need is a reason to vote for Romney and there's plenty of time left for Romney to make those arguments. In fact, all he really has to say is "Are you better of now than you were four years ago? Are you happy with the direction in which our country is headed?" That should be enough.
Steve, I've been a Chicago Bears fan for my entire life… (60 years). Even during the great Mike Ditka era, when the Bears "tried to run out the clock"….. they ended up losing in the last seconds as the other team kicked the game winning field goal or scored a touchdown. Romney cannot afford, as you say, to let this happen. He needs to go on the offensive. n n"We have a dead economy – little growth, few jobs, and little signs of any sector improving." nTo be honest, your statement would make an excellent TV spot for the Romney Campaign. Great job!
How can one go on the offensive when 1) Mitt will be required to defend the Republican platform (after the convention) during the debates (a laughable proposition; global warming, gay marriage, etc). and 2) Mitt is a self-described "draft-dodger", courtesy of the Mormon (gnostic) church. It may not mean anything to you, but the DNC will make it relevant to those Vietnam Vets 63+ who live in Fla, OH, etc. Good luck
Everybody assumes that the Dems are playing all their cards now, because they're playing the cards we know they have. Why are we so sure that they don't have good cards that they're waiting to show?
They better be quick as they only have 4 cards (months) left …
Because they are running like they are scared. They are spending money way too early in states that don't matter on negative campaigning which people just shut out after awhile. I think the oldtimers of the DNC-Carville, Clinton, etc-are simply sitting back and watching this implode. Carville's already given his two cents. Clinton never will. Plus I think it would be interesting to have a jailhouse chat with Blagojevich. I think he took one for the team and he knows way more than he's saying.
Obama will do a big bailout of underwater mortgage debtors in September, with Bernanke's connivance. People like free stuff.
The "birther" charges, the Moslem charges, lies about ObamaCare (aka RomneyCare) — and you talk about sliming?!?!
When did romney do any of those?? n nAs for Obamacare . can you be a bit more specific. as the bill is 2500 pages and is terrible
"The "birther" charges, the Moslem charges, lies about ObamaCare (aka RomneyCare)" – that is all coming from WE THE PEOPLE who refuse to sit down and shut up and believe what the lame stream media spoon feeds us. We have done our own extensive research and WE are fighting Obama with the TRUTH and we are spreading it online. Sorry but the LSM no longer has a monopoly on information and it is driving them crazy.
"The "birther" charges, the Moslem charges, lies about ObamaCare (aka RomneyCare) — and you talk about sliming?!?! " n nMr. Tobin is talking about the Obama campaign and its tactics. Mitt Romney is no more responsible for those smears – and they are – then the Obama campaign is responsible for the smears that Bush stole the election or knew that Iraq didn't have WMD. n nYou're making this harder than it is.
I think that Romney can come off as personable when he's off the cuff (even though that's also when he puts his foot in his mouth) — but, at least, unscripted he comes off as a real person (and I think Obama is always acting, that EVERYTHING is scripted, that there's no there there). n nWhat is scary, however, is what the Democrats did to Sarah Palin (and, I would add that, I think, every single conservative writer at Commentary despises her to the point one must accept that the Democrats even turned the thinking of many Republicans against Palin). They despise Romney just as much. So, let's see ….
Obama isn't so good off the cuff either – teleprompter, anyone? n nAs much as I am a conservative, I really can't muster any indignation when it comes to Palin. Ill prepared and woefully out of her league – McCain set her up from the word go.
They were able to do Sarah Palin in because the attacks were coordinated with the MSM and especially the Commodians. When you become the butt of bad but effective jokes that feed directly into the MSM's narrative about you, you are in trouble.
Democrats are crowing about 8% of people changing their minds? Are you serious? 8% is barely anything, and certainly nothing to crow about. Sorry, Dems, you'll have to get that number into double digits to have any impact whatsoever. On top of that, only about 6% said they changed their mind to vote for Obama, while about 2% changed their mind to vote for Romney. And, this 8% figure is spread out in 12 swing states. This means that only a very very tiny amount of people per swing state changed their mind due to negative ads. n nHow pathetic. After all the rumpus about Bain, it barely made an impact. In fact, it may have even hurt Obama. So,please keep spending millions of dollars on these over the top smear jobs. I would actually love to see these thugs waste all their money on misleading, unconvincing election year gimmicks. This aint Bush vs Kerry, you clowns. More like Carter vs Reagan.
I have a feeling Romney is just biding his time. I don't want him showing his hand too early by responding to what amounts to schoolyard taunts or by revealing his VP candidate too soon. I think there are plenty of issues that Romney can force Obama to address from the economy to unemployment-because those are the bread and butter issues. The important thing is for Romney to not get drawn into a fight he didn't pick. As my mother used to say "never wrestle with a pig, because you just get dirty and the pig likes it." Right now, Romney just needs to stay on message about the economy. Then, later, he can offer to open his personal accounts, but only if and when Obama does the same. It's laughable that they are trying to peg Romney as "secretive" when we know his entire personal history and don't even know what classes Obama took in college. That's a tactic that's going to boomerang because there are still too many people who wonder at Obama's background. I would personally love to see Mitt ask for an audit of all the failed businesses that got stimulus money to ascertain if campaign contributions to Obama were skimmed off before bankruptcy.
Tex, I like your stategy. Mom was right!
If one casts a vote for Obama, then you are being willfully ignorant to the wrecking ball he has wielded on the economy, on racial issues and healthcare reform. Irrespective of negative campaigning on Obama's part, this man-child will always revert to the lie, it's his old tried and true campaign strategy going back to his first campaign. Hope and change, forward or we're still not where we want to be count on the slacker-in-chief to come up with some real whoppers.
Living in a 'swing state' and hearing these horrible Obama ads….they are turning people off to Obama big-time. n nThe one thing Obama had left was 'likeability' and I can't stand the man now….I disagree that negative ads don't hurt the accuser, I think they bounce back to the accuser and smear him just as bad. n nIn fact, this hate and negativity by the Democrats has pretty much made me so DISGUSTED that I will NEVER vote for a Democrat again. Please Obama ads GO AWAY! n n
I hope the Romney campaign doesn't seriously think Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are winnable and intends to spend much time or money in those states. They should be pouring their resources into the other states named in the poll, all of which are eminently winnable and, more important, crucial to winning the election. n The most important of all is Ohio, without which no Republican has ever been elected. Several recent polls suggest Romney is slightly behind in the Buckeye State, and thus the choice of Rob Portman for VP makes great good sense. He's the most popular vote-getter in the state unlike Gov. Kasich who is extremely unpopular and has little chance at re-election.
Free advice for Oblahblah: When you start throwing mud, you just end up losing ground.
Obama may win with all his lies. He can't run on his record, but those that will vote for him DON'T CARE about his record… Really, they just want "free stuff" (which we all know is not free. n nLets get ready to pay out the nose if he wins again.. Taxes, and ObamaTax for life! n nIts just sickening. n nWake up people. Fire obama.
Obama's odds of winning reelection are high because he is ruthless and willing to shamelessly use ALL the powers of office to win, which includes giving out free stuff. I predict: (1) Obama will have a NATO war in Syria as a distraction (2) Obama and Bernanke will engineer the ultimate bailout of underwater mortgage debtors, which will purchase the votes of the Moderates and Independents since they will have to reelect him to get the money, and (3) Obama's biggest partisan hack Eric Holder will indict Mitt Romney for tax evasion within a week of election day, and ask the judge for bail to be denied. n nObama will win. He brings a gun to a knife fight. He told us so himself.
Many including my own husband has said, maybe this is just what America needs. To be brought down so low, the only way out is up….. nBut I don't agree with him on this one. If we go down that far, we won't be back.
If the apologist polls barely show an Obama lead there is blood in the water.
Eric Holder is planning a big October surprise – indicting Romney for tax evasion a week or less before the election.
You mean Eric Holder the MURDERER? Sorry that won't fly. People are way too smart about this false flag stuff at this point. We will see through that like there's no tomorrow.
Yeah, the one and same Eric Holder. The partisan hack who let the Black Panthers off scott-free. Moderates and Independents won't vote for a guy who was indicted and sent to jail, even if the charges are totally bogus. This is why Holder is still in office. He is the President's ultimate trump card.
It would only be a "false flag" if the rumor was being spread the Romney campaign, since indicting Romney just before the election would so obviously look like the work of a desperate Obama campaign. The reality is that – obviously – neither holder, nor anyone else, is going to charge, indict or take any other legal action against Romney, because that just plays into Romney's hands.
Actually, the Obama strategy should work fairly well. Romney is an extremely weak candidate, and not because he's wealthy, a strong point, but because no one knows what he stands for or will do. This is very much like the 2004 election where we also had two pathetic candidates. The "devil you know" wins. More than 11 years of failure in the WH and counting, but I'm not seeing how Romney would be any better.
Obama has run 68,000 ads in swing states since mid April, 55,000 of them negative ads against Romney – he has outspent Romney and all of Romney's allies by $30M in those states during that time. All of that has gotten him to even (down 51-43 in one poll of swing states, ahead 47-45 in another). n nObama is going to be massively outspent in the last three months, when people actually start paying attention – the cash on hand is equal right now, Romney has outraised Obama by $52M in the last 2 months, that gap is widening and the GOP super PACS are absolutely destroying the Dem super PACS in fundraising. n nRomney will get a much bigger bounce out of his convention, as the challenger almost always does. Obama can't count on the debates – he does poorly in an unscripted environment ("the private sector is doing fine") and Romney destroyed Perry, Newt and Santorum when it counted, he thrives on the pressure. n nIt's over. Political pros know it and the media will begin to catch on, though they will continue waving the Hope and Change flag to the bitter end.
What an incredibly biased article.
Do some in the Republican hierarchy think the party will be better off with Obama in power another four years? Or do they think having candidate(s) with a lack of zeal will flip swing states back into the GOP camp?
it does not matter who wins !!! , this " cesspool" of a country is going down !!!
I think we should all demand paper ballots.
When cheating is endemic it goes on whether paper or electronic. I too think the old paper ballots are overall better.