All the articles published in the last days and weeks speculating about Mitt Romney’s vice presidential pick or the timing of his announcement have one thing in common: they are all mostly bunk. The rumors about Condoleezza Rice, Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty or Rob Portman are just that. Rumors. Only Romney and his inner circle know whom he’ll tap, and until the announcement is made, the Republican presidential contender can always change his mind. That renders all the predictions an exercise in filling space and trying to appease a public hungry for news more than anything else.
But there is one element to much of the veep speculation that I think does bear refutation. It is the notion, probably encouraged by the Romney campaign, that they view their goal as primarily to do no harm rather than to help the GOP ticket. That sounds like sound advice, especially when you recall the way the Sarah Palin pick turned out (contrary to the mythology cherished by her fan club, Palin hurt John McCain more with independents and centrists than she helped with the GOP base). But though the Romney camp thinks it is in a far stronger position than McCain was when he decided he needed a game-changing pick and went for Palin, they would be foolish to assume they don’t need help. A brilliant vice presidential pick, assuming one exists, may not make or break Romney’s chances, but if he and his staff think they can cruise through the next three and a half months to an inevitable victory without trying to do something big, they have underestimated their opponent.
Romney’s position is stronger than that of McCain four years ago, but he is still likely to head into the conventions as a slight underdog. As I wrote yesterday, the polls showing a tight race haven’t budged in months. But that shouldn’t be considered great news for the GOP. President Obama has presided over a lousy economy, has few accomplishments to his name, and spends most of his time blaming his predecessors. That makes him vulnerable, but Romney’s weaknesses have allowed the president to retain a steady if tiny lead among registered voters and a virtual dead heat among likely voters.
The common assumption among political experts is that in a close race, undecided voters tend to break for the challenger. That’s a trend that puts a smile on the face of members of Romney’s camp, but that prediction is about as valuable as the latest skinny on the Internet about who the GOP veep will be.
It can’t be said often enough that political science isn’t science. There is no reason to believe that any past political trends will be repeated. More to the point, if Romney can’t break through and take a lead sometime during the summer, he may never do so.
Which leads me to the conclusion that while Romney should obviously avoid a rash, unvetted and unprepared choice like Sarah Palin, he would be foolish to assume he doesn’t need help from the bottom of the ticket. It’s true that vice presidential nominees are not the difference between victory and defeat, but if Romney decides to play it safe, he will regret it. A dull as dishwater vice presidential pick will help turn the GOP showcase in Tampa into a snoozer. It will also lead to a minimal convention bump that will be widely interpreted as a portent of doom and deprive him of the momentum he needs heading into the home stretch.
The assumption on the part of some Republicans that Obama is so weak that Romney doesn’t need to do something to galvanize his party and seize the attention of the public is based on a misreading of the president’s position. President Obama has no case for re-election, but he remains a historic figure with lots of goodwill and the loyalty of his party and its base. He can be defeated but not if Romney thinks he’s already got the election in his pocket. Rather than worrying about reliving the Palin debacle, Romney needs to understand that at the moment he has no better than an even chance of winning in November. If that doesn’t factor into his choice, then he’s making a big mistake.
The criteria for a VP pick is not to 'go big', but rather to figure out who helps Romney more with the independent and undecided voters who will decide the winner. And in order to answer that question, Romney needs to figure out why he hasn't closed the deal yet with those voters… and then pick the person who makes those voters sit up and say 'yeah, Romney gets it'. n nI don't think it is because they think he's not bland enough, so picking someone like Pawlenty or Portman won't help Romney. Nor is it that Romney isn't wonkish enough, so picking someone like Ryan probably won't help cover the gap. And while Romney isn't a firebreather, I don't think this is hurting him with those voters, so picking Christie won't help. n nMy gut tells me two things: n nOne, they don't think he cares enough about people who aren't as fortunate as he was (whether he does or doesn't is irrelevant, the perception is what counts). Second, while they might not admit it, they're worried about his being a Mormon. n nSo… if this is so, Romney needs to pick someone who both hails from a tougher background… and is a serious member of a traditional faith who can reassure voters that Romney is neither too insulated or too out there to be elected.
The only person who I've seen who can actually hit hard against Obama is Ryan. Possibly Rubio. Though truthfully none of them really hit that hard. Whoever hits hardest gets my vote for Veep.
Paul Ryan would be ideal in multiple ways, as he'd be surefire conservative enthusiasm–and also relatively safe, something for everyone inclined to vote Republican. (He's no real baggage unless you count his proposals, but his proposals he certainly has the wherewithal to defend. He'd be the most stark choice in an economy-centered election for VP undoubtedly.) He is for sure the ultimate offensive choice (as opposed to those who might be picked for various traits of biology or character), and more than a sound defensive one. n nBut come 2013, I'd rather have Ryan in the House than have him be sitting VP (assuming in the first case that Romney was President). That's the only thing I see as a dilemma… n nI'm also quite sure Ryan would dent Obama if he were the pick. I don't think his coverage is so great right now, but every remark of his would receive attention were he the pick.
What I fear about Ryan is that the whole election will be about Medicare — not Obamacare or the economy or America's direction — but do you want to put Medicare on the line. And, yes, I know that Democrats are the party of cuts and rationing … but it's not what the country thinks. Ryan needs to be in Congress, fighting from there, and educating on economic issues and reform measures where they'll be debated under Romney.
Ryan is unacceptable. The VP must be a person who can be president. The Constitution says the President must be a natural born citizen. This means a person born in the U.S. who does not have any other obligations. A person born in the U.S. whose father was a British subject is also a British subject, and so not a natural born citizen. We have to make this point very clear, for then people will see that this applies to the President, who is not a natural born citizen.
s'ok. he was actually born in Kenya on a layover en route to Heathrow.
I thought Paul Ryan was born in Wisconsin?
So says Wikipedia, Brian Cull.
get over it already! a person born in the United States is an American citizen, and that's good enough for me. n nas a matter of fact, I think it might be time to change that law anyway. there are people who were born in other countries who have immigrated here and become sincere patriotic Americans. why shouldn't they be able to run for president?
What type of terrible nonsense are you talking about?! "get over it already! a person born in the United States is an American citizen, and that's good enough for me." What counts is the Constitution! If you want to change it, then we need to pass an amendment! This disrespect you have for the American Constitution is terrible, evil, and dangerous! The idea that we can change the "law", i.e., the Constitution, without an amendment is the beginning of tyranny, which I do not want!
He was never eligible for the office, based on the SC ruling in Minor v. Heppersett (1875), which stated that a natural born citizen was a person born of two citizen parents.
Tobin to the contrary notwithstanding, Sarah Palin can do more to assure a Republican victory in November than any of the other potential VP candidates. n nPalin is a proxy for the millions of people in "fly-over land", people who are thought to be good for just two things: votes and taxes. To attack, mock, or ignore Palin is to attack, mock, or ignore millions of Americans. n nBut Sarah Palin has proven that she is more influential as a free agent than she could be as an elected official, much less, a Republican elected official. She has a huge base of committed supporters. Many (most?) of them are self-identified Independents. Prediction: Palin will ultimately organize the political center in ways that transform American politics. n nPalin is young. She’s a long distance runner. Mort Kondrake, the executive editor of Roll Call, sized up Sarah Palin this way: "She's attractive, charismatic, ambitious, tough to the point of ruthlessness and smart,…". n nThe future belongs to Sarah Palin and the millions of Americans who admire her and see her as one with them. n nWithout Sarah Palin's enthusiastic support, Mitt Romney doesn't stand a chance.
Palin's brigade is coming out against Obama, and Romney needs to be as far away from her as he can. I'm conservative, but I will never deny reality and say Palin has been a net positive for the Republican party. She is not a fighter, the only cares about self promotion, and she was extremely misinformed about most things that matter. She would have been a titan if she would have played her cards right, but instead she went for reality money, and made herself into a diva. She brings to mind the real housewives of Alaska.
I agree that Romney has to have Palin's support (but he also needs Santorum's support too). I was hoping for a Palin run — and I sure hope she gets to speak at the convention, although it doesn't look like it — but all of the people who support Palin are going to vote for Romney anyway. On the other hand, next to GW Bush, the most despised person in America is Sarah Palin — unfairly, sure … but every single hater will be motivated to vote for Obama, the Dems will have a turn out equal to 2008 if she's on the ticket. The haters are despicable, but you know they are out there frothing at the mouth. How else can over 60% of the people blame Bush for what Obama's done?
"President Obama has no case for re-election" n nOnly a partisan Republican disinformation specialist could say that. In fact, President Obama has had more accomplishements in one term already than most Presidents have in two. For example: n nEconomic stimulus ends recession. nAffordable Care Act finally gets Americans access to health insurance after a century of efforts. nDodd-Frank Act begins to rein in the casino known as Wall Street. nBanks that were nationalized under the Bush TARP are de-nationalized. nAuto industry saved. nMillions of private sector jobs created. nTaxes cut. nStrictest enforcement of immigration laws in 70 years. nEnded stupid restrictions on stem cell research. nImproved enforcement actions against illegal tax evasion. n n nOsama bin Laden dead — along with a bunch of other Al Qaeda high ups. nGhadafi dead. nThree free trade agreements. nUS out of Iraq. nRecord miltary cooperation with Israel. nNew strategic arms reduction treaty with Russia. n nI could go on and on and on….
One thing I agree with Dick Morris about and that is that Romney made his choice (pending the in depth vetting) months ago and it is the obvious one: Marco Rubio. Only Rubio can rally movement conservatives AND give the ticket a shot of youth, vigor and good looks, AND give the ticket the opportunity to pick up another five percent or so of Hispanic voters, which could be decisive in several close key states, AND help assure some moderate independent voters that the GOP is not an exclusive white club, AND give Romney a boost in Florida, AND hammer Biden in the debate, AND smoothly and persuasively play the traditional VP role of attack dog, if need be. n nThe fear that the VP candidate can or will overshadow the guy running for President is preposterous, and since that is the only possible significant downside of Rubio, it is a slam dunk.
The thing that really jumped out to me in this article is the suggestion Romney wait to make the announcement — and that that would help with a convention bounce. I think Romney needs a bounce to start the fall campaign season. I guess I hope he waits. n nWith all of the speculation, I suppose the eventual choice will be initially a let down, but it doesn't mean that would be permanent. If you look at the last winning choice, Biden, he was probably a disappointment who became a national joke to this day. Cheney, the winner before that, wasn't flashy, and not even all that healthy, but he was sobering and professional, and I believe that helped GW Bush. Possibly the best way to fight Obama with a VP pick is to pick an adult who knows what he's talking about and can't be rattled.
Mr. Tobin, why do you find it necessary to bash Sarah Palin three times in this article? n nThe case for whom Mitt Romney chooses as his VP candidate, and when he decides to make the announcement of his choice, could quite easily be made without resorting to dissing someone who is on the same team. Such unnecessary swipes at Sarah Palin do nothing to help the cause of electing Mr. Romney.
I somewhat agree, though I am not a fan of Palin at all. n nObama was a lion in 2008, and McCain was a lamb. (Animals mentioned were chosen for the picture of their respective strength and ferocity.) There was nothing McCain could have done to win in 2008 given the economic collapse.
Marco Rubio is the best choice, he can reach out to Hispanics, youth, he has won all the polls on the top vice president people want