Four years ago, could we have guessed that President Obama would soon be considered less exciting than candidate Mitt Romney? The enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats has grown to more than 20 points since March, according to today’s CBS News/NYT poll (h/t HotAir):
Meantime, three and a half months before election day, Republican enthusiasm about voting this year has shot up since Mitt Romney clinched the nomination in April, from 36 percent of Republicans saying they were more enthusiastic in March to 49 percent now.
President Obama was helped to election in 2008 by a wave of voter enthusiasm among Democrats, however this year, Democratic enthusiasm is down a bit since March. Twenty-seven percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic about voting this year than they were in past elections, compared to 30 percent four months ago. And 48 percent of Democrats say their enthusiasm this year is the same as past elections, compared to 39 percent who answered the same question in March.
Independent voters’ enthusiasm is also up with 29 percent saying they’re more enthusiastic now from 22 percent four months ago.
Overall, voters aren’t as enthusiastic about this year’s election as they were in 2008. Just 33 percent of all registered voters said they were more enthusiastic this year than they were for past elections, compared to 41 percent in March 2008.
The GOP-Democratic gap is actually less troubling for Obama than the rising enthusiasm among independent voters. What’s causing the trend? The next line in the CBS story might give you an idea:
As for the direction of the country, voters are growing increasingly more pessimistic, however.
Sixty-four percent of those polled think the country is on the wrong track, up from 62 percent in May.
At HotAir, Ed Morrissey raises another good, related point:
The big takeaway, though, is that 49 percent of Republicans and 29 percent of independents express increased enthusiasm for this election, while only 27 percent of Democrats say the same thing. If Obama’s attacks are depressing enthusiasm, it’s pretty clear whose enthusiasm he’s depressing. That was always the risk for a candidate whose main qualification for office was hope and change, and whose signature outcome has been economic stagnation.
This is particularly problematic for Obama because his reelection relies on him either getting his base out to the polls in greater numbers than in 2008 or winning over new supporters to make up for the ones he’s lost. It doesn’t look like he’s made headway in either area, according to this poll. Not only does this point to a troubling trend down the road, it also requires Obama to refigure his current talking points. As Politico’s Donovan Slack reports, the Obama campaign has tended to play up positive enthusiasm numbers to argue it’s in good shape for November.
Alana is right. This is yet another glorious day in the Obama campaign's march towards inevitable oblivion! After making "the biggest mistake of campaign 2012" (I am sure Pete Wehner will pinpoint another one next week), "Romney should just send Obama a fruit basket" to show his gratitude. But there is always more good news on the horizon — n n"Why Upholding ObamaCare Will Badly Damage Obama's Reelection Chances" — June 29, 2012 n"Obama's Summer of Discontent Continues" — June 26, 2012 n"Obama Presidency May Never Fully Recover" – June 22, 2012 n"Barack Obama’s Awful June Just Got Worse" — June 21 2012 n"Obama Is Simply Overmatched by Events" – June 2, 2012 n"Obama's Disastrous Political Overreach" — May 1 2012 n"Obama Not Even Creative in His Deceit" — April 5 2012 n"Barack Obama: Desperate and Demagogic" — April 3 2012 n"Watching a Presidency Fall Apart" – December 8, 2011 n"The Administration´s Expanding Scandals" – October 6, 2011 n nConsidering all the overwhelming evidence, surely there is just no way the Mitt Juggernaut will still be trailing in the polls after this month? Or is there?
All depends on which polls you're going to be looking at, Marcus. Virtually all of the polls that show Obama with any kind of lead of any kind are either a sample of voting-age adults or simply registered voters. They are *not* likely voters. Stick with Rasmussen on this. He only samples likely voters and, just as importantly, he keeps the proportions of Dems-Reps-Indys in accurate balance– another way Dems have of distorting polls by oversampling Dems.
One of the reasons I am confident about November is that I have not seen ANY enthusiasm for Obama in my neck of the woods. I live in one of the bluest parts of the country, and I teach high school. Four years ago, during the Democratic primaries, the enthusiasm for Obama amongst students was palpable. There were voter registration drives during lunchtime, kids were sporting Obama shirts and talking politics. Teachers, too, were excited – for these secular libs it must have seemed like the Second Coming. nNow – nothing, nada, zippo. The only students I had last year who were interested in the election were young Republicans who hate Obama. (God bless them!) They can't wait to vote against him. And my colleagues? They don't talk politics much, and never , ever, speak enthusiastically about the president. In fact, I suspect a couple of my colleagues will vote Republican for the first time ever or the first time in a long time in November. nScientific? No. But four years ago I had a really bad feeling due to everything going on around me. Now it looks much different – heck, there was more enthusiasm for Kerry in my neck of the woods than I've seen thus far for Obama.
I just got an email from the committee to re-elect that is promoting a sweepstakes, where the prize is a chance to go to the President's house in Chicago for his birthday party in August. Or somewhere to hang out with the President…Here's the fine print: n nNo purchase, payment, or contribution necessary to enter or win. Contributing will not improve chances of winning. Void where prohibited. Entries must be received by July 26th, 2012. You may enter by contributing to Obama for America here or click here to enter without contributing. Two (2) winners will each receive the following prize package: round-trip tickets for winner and a guest from within the fifty U.S. States, DC, or Puerto Rico to a destination to be determined by Sponsor; hotel accommodations; and tickets for winner and a guest to an event with President Obama on a date, at a venue and for a duration to be determined by Sponsor (approximate retail value of all prizes $3,200). Odds of winning depend on number of entries received and timing of entries received. Promotion open only to U.S. citizens, or lawful permanent U.S. residents who are legal residents of 50 United States, District of Columbia and Puerto Rico and 18 or older (or age of majority under applicable law). Promotion subject to Official Rules and additional restrictions on eligibility. Sponsor: Obama for America, 130 E. Randolph St., Chicago, IL 60601. n nI don't know about this, folks. Seems pretty vulgar to me. This feels like pandering. The term"cult of personality" keeps coming to mind.