For more than a year, optimists have been predicting the end of the Assad regime in Syria. Those forecasts have been proven wrong, as the Syrian dictator has not lost his willingness to kill as many people as possible in order to hold on. Nor has he been deprived of the crucial foreign support from Iran, Hezbollah and most importantly, Russia. But today’s news that his prime minister has defected may finally be the signal that the tipping point has been reached in the conflict that has taken the lives of thousands of Syrians. While Bashar al-Assad’s forces still seem full of fight, they have noticeably faltered in their efforts to finish off the opposition or even to keep them out of Damascus and other major cities. No one could credibly accuse someone who had served in this brutal government of having much of a conscience about all the massacres committed in order to preserve Assad’s grip on power, but it may be that Prime Minister Riyad Farid Hijab has read the writing on the wall and understands it is better not to go down with a sinking ship.
Nevertheless, this latest sign that finally President Obama’s forecast about Assad’s demise is coming true is no reason for the administration to celebrate. Obama helped prolong the agony of Syria and the life of Assad’s government by not acting more forcefully to depose him earlier in the struggle. But now that the country is in a state of chaos with Islamists appearing to dominate the opposition forces, the United States is faced with a far more dangerous situation. During the weekend, the New York Times reported that both the State Department and the Pentagon were planning for the post-Assad era in Syria. That’s good, but the problem is it may be too late for the United States to have much influence on the outcome if, as now seems possible, Assad is actually defeated.
Having decided last year to “lead from behind” on Syria, President Obama is in no position to have much of an impact on what will follow Assad’s fall. While the U.S., along with its European allies, has been supplying the rebels with some help in recent months, that is not likely to buy much goodwill with a Syrian people who will be justified in thinking the U.S. stood by as they were being killed by Assad’s loyalists. Nor will the U.S. be in a position to prevent the humanitarian disasters that may well unfold in the coming months. Score settling could result in the mass slaughter of Syrian Alawites who are seen as supporters and beneficiaries of the Assad clan during their decades ruling in Damascus.
Having held itself largely aloof from the conflict, it will not be possible for the Obama administration to do anything different as conditions there worsen. By failing to choose in Syria, as it largely failed to do in Egypt, the president has set us up for the worst of all worlds, with a stable situation rendered unstable and the United States getting no credit for helping to affect change. If this is what some pundits consider a successful foreign policy, I’d hate to see what failure looks like.
America *should* be helping to overthrow the Syrian dictatorship. But if we do this, we also need to do a much better job than we did with the previous nations of the Arab Spring. We would need to pressure the hell out of the new Syrian gov't, and then blast them non-stop with pro-Western liberal and pro-freedom propaganda, such as via many radio and t'v' stations.
It is somewhat interesting to note conservative commentators, at least some of them, and I am not in any way refering to Mr. Tobin at all, attribute US Foreign policy under Obama/Clinton as replacing US interests based policy with a wishful thinking posturing policy coupled with appeasement of traditional US antagonists in favor of continued support of US traditional allies.
I disagree with that perspective. It may be exactly what Obama et. al. wants us to think. On ther contrary, as awful as it might be if it were true, I believe Obama was not high on grass and The Jimi Hendrix when he clearly marked Mubarak for extinction with his call for our erstwhile ally in Cairo to step down immediately. Obama knew The Muslim brotherhood would be swept into power. Obama is obviously an adherent to the positions of Professors Walt and Mearsheimer. They do not see Israel as important anymore and would prefer to see trade ties with Iran and it’s satellites improve and Israel to as much as possible disappear as quickly and as painlessly as possible.
Therefore, I believe Obama is hoping for a Muslim Brotherhood gov’t in Syria and Jordan to link up to Egypt and “Palestine” within ’67 borders.
I have proof okay, look; only after Camp David and The Israel Egypt Treaty did Israel seriously begin discussion of what was to be autonomy for the arab residents of Judea and Samaria, under PM Begin which morphed into a “Palestinian Statelet” under rabin and a Palestinian State with East jerusalem as it’s capital under Barak, Olmert and Livni. All of these discussions and one sided concessions by Israel were based upon the solid rock foundation of The Israel Egypt Peace Treaty. OK. So, now that The Treaty is dead, under Egypt’s new Gov’t, thanks largely to The Obama Administration, who, except an enemy of Israel would consider it appropriate to suggest the resumption of negotiations between Israel and “The Palestinians”. What for, in order to create a Palestinian State, by definition from Obama, based upon ’67 borders, The Aushwitz borders? The US clearly has betrayed Israel and Obama is not done, he has clearly established a foundation for the destruction of Israel and the creation of an Islamic Extremist Superpower in as little as four more years. At that point American minds will be so, how does one say…FUNKED OVER, they probably would vote for Hilary Clinton for US President.
The Arabs are telling Obama they'll hit him with the slur that he's a Zionist puppet if he intervenes in Syria.
Empress Trudy — Obama needs to do what's morally right, no matter what pro-slavery, anti-American Arabs try to blackmail him with. He needs to be a proud, defiant, "libertarian puppet."
Daryl Davis — At some point, to stand idly by, while whole oceans of innocents are being openly slaughtered, is profoundly immoral and malicious. Especially if you're strong as Superman while the bad guys are as weak as day-old kittens.
Daryl Davis n nThe United States is not "any nation". She has dominated the globe since 1945 during which time two billion people have become six billion. She was not only crucial to that eruption but has been key to democracy, human rights and modernity becoming accessible across six continents. n nThe extent and speed of the planet's transformation was a function of the US being at the helm. n nSyria is today part of a nexus involving Iran, Hezbullah, Israel, Turkey, the Kurds, and the entire Arab world. The US will be responsible for what happens there, whatever we do OR DON'T DO. n n