One day after Mitt Romney announced his choice for vice president, the consensus among Democrats is all they have to do to win in November is to mention one word: Medicare. They are convinced Paul Ryan’s budget and his belief that entitlements must be reformed if they are to be preserved is easily demagogued. Mediscare tactics are at the heart of their belief that a critical mass of voters can be stampeded toward Obama and the Democrats by claiming Paul Ryan is the boogeyman who is going to push grandma over the cliff. There is good reason to believe that once Americans get a good look at Ryan and start listening to his ideas they’ll be convinced this liberal caricature is just the usual mainstream media sliming of conservatives, but if there is any group on which such fears might work, it is among American Jews. That will make the battle for the Jewish vote in Florida a key test of Democrat plans.
Though many in the Obama camp have been trying to pretend there is no problem for them among this staunchly partisan Democratic demographic, there’s little doubt that uneasiness about the president’s attitude toward Israel is going to cost him a lot of Jewish votes this November. The administration’s election year Jewish charm offensive confirmed the White House understands that three years of constant fights with Israel will have electoral consequences. But today, liberals are predicting Florida will be where they will best be able to stampede elderly Jews away from the Republicans, worries over Israel notwithstanding. That’s the conceit of the Forward’s first shot on the topic that claimed Ryan would be a “Four-Letter Word” among Jews. But liberal assumptions on this point may turn out to be more wishful thinking than anything else.
Democratic plans to demonize Ryan will find a ready audience among liberal Jews. Obama’s questionable record on Israel was never going to affect the votes of a majority of Jews. The issue was not whether Obama could hold onto more than 50 percent of Jewish votes, but how much of the 78 percent he got in 2008 would he be able to retain. The most optimistic estimates of the Democrat vote will keep him in the mid-60s, with his share of Jewish ballots in Florida probably being even lower. But Democrats are hoping that some of those Jews defecting from their ranks will start to slink back to Obama due to fears over the future of Medicare. Just as a loss of 10 to 25 percent of the Jewish vote could make the difference in Florida and perhaps even affect the outcome in Pennsylvania or Ohio if the election is close, a backlash against Ryan could also be decisive.
But Democrats shouldn’t count on the Jews falling back into their column so easily.
First, those Jewish voters who are most vulnerable to Mediscare tactics were already going to vote for Obama. If you are the sort of person who truly believes the Republicans are going to throw Bubbe over the cliff, you probably were never sufficiently concerned about Obama’s pressure on Israel and unwillingness to confront Iran to cross over to the GOP. The minority of American Jews who consider Israel’s security to be a major influence on their votes are not going to be so easily bulldozed by the Mediscare routine. Voters who believe the president will sell out Israel are not the most receptive audience for a Democratic campaign based on the idea that Romney and Ryan will sell out the elderly.
Democrats also forget that Jews are just as capable of figuring out that the only way to save Medicare is to face the issue head on rather than pretend, as Democrats intend to do, to preserve the status quo. As much as the left will lap up the attacks on Ryan and his budget, the centrist voters who are in play this fall may not be as easily fooled as liberals think. And there is another possibility that nobody on the left is prepared to even consider: a lot of those Jewish grandmothers and grandfathers who care about Israel may just decide they like Ryan a lot more than Obama.
Aren't there fewer and fewer Jews as a percentage of the population each year? even with the snowbird contingent , even in Florida? doesn't Ryan exempt anyone 55 years and older anyways? And by the way, although transferring Medicare patients from a fee-for-service Federal program to a voucher support program in the short term cleans up one corner of the Federal bookkeeping–given the cohort we are talking about can you actually save money this way rather than redistributing the pot? And isn't the most logical saving a voucher support program that increases participant private costs? Can you avoid introducing rationing one way or the other for us boomers–rationing care in a "free" fee for service Federal program or governmental subsidies in a voucher support program? ? Ultimately, isn't it a question of when and where to draw the line? The Dems champion programs they have no intention of paying for, not to mention their cynical open-border de facto policy of granting federal support benefits (and the vote) to non-citizens; and the Repubs invoke buzzwords and shibboleths about "unleashing private enterprise" and "savings solutions based on cooperation between health care stakeholders"–and the problem of actual, fixed, unavoidable costs associated with an aging (and ultimately, dying) population in a health-care system warped by perverse tort incentives and unrealistic wealth expectations of doctor "entrepreneurs"–all this is supposed to vanish in a haze of partisan feel-good sloganeering. Good luck with that.
The cost of Lasik surgery is going down. Why?
The basic fact is that the question of entitlements and their reform were on the table in 2010 and guess what, the Democrats suffered a real thumping. I am convinced that this is why Romney thinks he can address that question now, with the strength of the Tea party supporters behind him. nIn any case, those senior citizens who vote know that their benefits will not be touched (anyone over 55 remains unchanged) and the Ryan plans will rsonate with a large number of working families and young people. At the end of the day, the voters will have the last word,
Actually, you need not be over 55. You need only to be 55 for the no change rule to kick in. The way that your statement reads, you'd have to be 56, as that's over 55.
I used to think that, by and large, Jews could not be that easily swayed. However, on Facebook I observe many of my relatives who insist thay are open to facts, nevertheless have totally bought into the Democrat domagogic attacks, probably because of misplaced loyalty to the Democratic party which was fed to them with teir mother's milk. So, now I am not so sure.
Let's face it: On the Democrats' Stupidity Spectrum —- the list of voters who can successfully be herded, corralled and if necessary, panicked into a stampede —- we Jews seem to have a place of honor. How else can you explain three years of Israel bashing followed by the insistence that it was all a Republican-inspired mirage? n nBy selecting Paul Ryan as his running mate, Mitt Romney has signalled that despite the dirt being continously shovelled by Obama and the Democrats, he is going to run an ideas-based campaign. He's going to take the revolutionary step of actually discussing what he intends to do if handed the reins of power. If the American voting public is too dumb to see what the Democrats are attempting, and allow themselves to be frightened by these transparent scare tactics, then all of us, Jew and gentile alike, will deserve the economic misery that is almost certain to follow an Obama victory.
But Romney's also boxed the Dems into shifting out of Romney-as-killer-of-cancer-victims bs mode to a substantive debate over American budgetary priorities–whether they like or not–if they continue to run their current campaign, even given the low expectations of the American electorate held by many here, the Dems could well be perceived as irrelevant and childish.
Brilliant deduction Einstein, as if Romney ever had any chance of getting even 1 single vote before Ryan anyway.
The whole TEA Party demographic wants the budget cleaned up to preserve Medicare and Social Security. Ryan is a TEA Party darling.
The Jews will still vote for Obama and the Democrats. Ryan's primary effect will be to give them pause for thought. Jews will listen to an intelligent politician, but in the end, as others point out here, sadly most of them will opt for tried-and-true LBJ Democrats over Reagan Republicans.
The party that does not offer a new credible proposal for medicare should lose. Otherwise we will all lose. Except the rich of course! nThe rejection of Pr. O budget proposals and the refusal of the Democratic senators to offer a budget for 31/2 year shows that they are incapable to deal with this issue. nDoes the country want a group of ideologues who has shown a lack of competence and courage. nIt looks like the demo prefer to destroy the country than to recognize the facts. Are we going for 8 years without a budget? Perhaps if Pr. O wins!!!
If Romney can get 39% of the Jewish vote, like Reagan did in 1980, that would make a huge difference in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
yes, he can!