Following several polls that show the race tightening in Wisconsin, CNN has moved the state from “lean Obama” to “toss up” on its electoral map:
CNN Thursday turned the important battleground state of Wisconsin from “lean Obama” to true “toss up” on its electoral map, in the wake of Mitt Romney’s naming of House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, a seven term congressman from the Badger state, as his running mate. One contributing factor behind CNN’s move was a new poll that matched two others from last week that indicate that the presidential contest in Wisconsin is close. …
With Wisconsin’s move to true “toss up,” the CNN Electoral Map now suggests Obama leading in states with a combined 237 electoral votes, Romney ahead in states with a combined 206 electoral votes, and states with 95 electoral votes up for grabs. 270 electoral votes are needed with win the White House.
It’s a great sign for Republicans, who haven’t won Wisconsin in a presidential race since Ronald Reagan. But Nate Silver warns against putting too much stock in CNN’s decision:
Adjust the Rasmussen numbers upward for Mr. Obama, and the CNN poll downward for him, and it looks as though Mr. Obama might win by about two percentage points if an election were held in Wisconsin today. I wouldn’t quite use the term “tossup” to describe the state — particularly if Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan are in the midst of a modest but temporary bounce — but it has become much more essential to the electoral math, and now rates as the fourth most important state in our tipping-point calculus, behind Ohio, Virginia and Florida.
Whether it’s a temporary bounce or not, Paul Ryan does have high favorables in Wisconsin and his addition to the ticket puts an important state in play.
CNN's top people are trying to help Obama be reelected. If they claim Wisconsin is now a toss up state—-that probably means Romney has something like a two point advantage.
RCP changed Wisc. from light blue(LEANS OBAMA)to toss up about two weeks ago. But Alana yesterday claimed that Romney leads in Wisc. Does he?
So CNN thinks North Carolina "leans Romney" but Wisconsin is a "tossup?" Seems waaaay premature to me considering Obama has finished ahead three times in the seven most recent horserace polls in NC.
And Rasmussen has Obama up 1 today in a national poll. Surrender, Romney! nI think the more important trend is the overall trend. Just like in 2010, we are now beginning to talk about lean-blue states moving toward Romney. NC appears to be settling in for Romney (despite Marcus's point, does anyone seriously think a state Obama barely won is going to drop for him now?), WI is certainly competitive, and eyes are on PA and MI. Whether or not the latter two are realistic is, to some extent, beside the point. In 2008 there was a brief moment when Obama was projecting a 50 state campaign – he was dropping money in ND, for crying out loud. Posturing? Sure. But it is a sign of confidence when a campaign can do that. Nobody expects MO and IN, for example, to go for Obama this time around, whereas in 2008 he got close in the former and squeezed by in the latter. The game right now is being played on the Democrat's side of the field, and that's a good thing. Reading the tea leaves, no matter how good someone may be at it (Nate Silver), sometimes means missing the big picture. Hard, cold statistics can send us down the wrong analytical path if we aren't careful.