One of the standing assumptions of most political pundits is that each party will emerge from its national convention these next two weeks with a “bump” in the poll numbers for their candidates. Gallup reports that the post convention fluctuations in its survey numbers give candidates a typical bounce of about five percentage points. Given the close nature of the current presidential contest and the fact that he has been trailing President Obama all year, Mitt Romney would certainly be happy with that kind of boost. It would be enough to put him into the lead at a time when he needs a momentum change.
But while pundits are also cautioning both the candidates and their supporters to remember that convention bounces tend to flatten out by the time the voters have their say in November, there are good reasons to believe the traditional bump may not be as strong in 2012 as it has been in the past.
The willingness of Democrats to junk tradition and step up their attacks during their opponents’ convention may be another indication of the administration’s determination to adopt any tactic or smear if it will help the president’s re-election. But it could be a stroke of strategic genius if it alters the monochromatic nature of the political conversation during a convention week and neuters Romney’s bounce. Hurricane Isaac, especially if it turns out to be worse than expected, could also divert the country from the Romney pep rally and diminish its significance. Just as important is the possibility that viewership for the scripted infomercials staged by both parties won’t generate as much interest as in the past and therefore mean a smaller impact on the polls.
Any bounce, no matter how small, that leaves Romney in the lead rather than trailing Obama, as he has all year, would be crucial. Though Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate energized Republicans and demonstrated a willingness to emphasize the differences between the parties, the last month was bookended by problems. The media-driven claim that his foreign trip was undermined by gaffes both real (the Olympics) and imaginary (Palestinian culture) didn’t help him. Even worse, the week before the convention was marred by the Todd Akin fiasco, a gift to the Democrats that may keep on giving all fall. If two weeks from now, Romney has evened the small gap between himself and the president or taken a tiny lead, it will have been a major achievement and could put him on track for a November victory.
But if the media spends the coming week devoting a lot of attention to Democratic guerilla warfare in Tampa, it could alter the traditional equation that produces convention bounces. Traditionally, the opposition stays quiet during their rivals’ convention week, allowing each side to portray their candidate and party without too much contradiction. But if the Democratic plan to trash courtesy succeeds, it cannot but help depress the bounce. Even if the GOP retaliates the following week in Charlotte — a trick that won’t be as easy without the cooperation of the mainstream media that the Democrats may receive in Tampa — the result will still be to Romney’s disadvantage.
The hurricane may be another piece of bad luck for the Republicans. The cancellation of the first night of the convention isn’t catastrophic but if Isaac inflicts terrible damage on Florida, it will be true disaster for the GOP since it will mean the party won’t have a monopoly on the media in the coming days.
But hovering above all of these factors is something that pundits and political junkies tend to forget: the conventions are no longer the greatest political show on earth and the public knows it. The party conventions were once great colorful dramas where real decisions were made both on the floor and in the proverbial smoke-filled rooms elsewhere. That changed a long time ago, but its impact on the public’s interest in them may be finally catching up to that reality because of the way the media has been transformed in the last two decades. The broadcast networks are limiting their coverage this year to three prime-time hours each and the parties should think themselves lucky to get that much. In 2008, the debut of Sarah Palin and the historical nature of Barack Obama’s acceptance of his party’s nomination riveted the nation but there will be no such drama this year.
As John noted on Friday, Romney’s acceptance speech will be more closely watched than Obama’s a week later, but the assumption that the whole nation will be riveted by it or any such address may not be justified anymore. All that may add up to a situation where the crucial question may not be how long the post convention bounce lasts but why it never happened. If so, it won’t be good news for Mitt Romney.
Romney and the Republicans would have to play everything perfectly to win, while Obama can make genuine, monster gaffes (like "you didn't build that") and it seems not to matter all that much. If this holds, as I believe it will with an Obama big win, this will proves that America has fundamentally changed. After all, who could ever imagine that a moderate Republican war hero would lose dramatically to a community organizer whose spiritual advisor (officially on campaign at beginning) and 20 year preacher famously said "God Damn America"? Something changed a long time ago and Obama is simply reaping that bitter harvest. Don't be surprised when Romeny gets trounced.
BDZ – what I like about your comments is their intellectual honesty and clarity. Unlike most of the analysis coming from the professional pundits, you get it. If Obama wins, it won't be the result of campaign strategies or hurricanes or Akin. It will be because the US has fundamentally changed into a society you and I find repulsive. I remain optimistic – I simply cannot visualize a President (and party) with the track record of this one winning reelection. He has done nothing to earn it, and his campaign is vicious and completely negative and dishonest. If Americans opt for that over what the Republican ticket is offering, we are, perhaps, doomed. nI know you hope I'm right! We'll find out soon enough.
You are certainly correct: American has changed over the last few decades in the direction of statism in which too many have become dependent. It's just not the stereotypical "welfare." Whether Medicare, Social Security, educational grants, business subsidies, government employment or the easy dismissal of traditional values and behavior, the conservative party's ideas and positions, in this case the Republicans, have become threatening to large numbers of middle class voters. Then factor in some ethnic politics(which American has always had)which finds the largest growing group, Latinos, very hostile to Republican policies on immigration(personally, I think tone more than actual policies). It's actually surprising that Romney can be competitive, but his path to victory is very narrow with no margin of error. In other words, he needs everything going for him: even a boring, tedious, but successful convention.
Romney wins in a landslide!
Goodness. And I was foolishly thinking the Romney campaign and Republicans in general were doing well. Turns out that the Mother Nature, an All Powerful Media,and Superhuman Democrats are conspiring to destroy the Republicans, and with it, the republic. nI think I will go back to bed and pull the sheets over my head. Wake me up after Armageddon. n
I'm with you. I think this post should win some kind of Eyeore award. n nLet's face it, IF America returns this failed president to office, knowing only that he has told vicious lies about his opponent and promised one of our main global adversaries that he'll have more "flexibility" after his "last election", we are truly finished as a great nation. n nThe re-election of Obama has the potential to drive the entire world into misery, dissention, and more war. n nAside from that, can anyone imagine our economy improving under his continued stewardship? n nNo, I didn't think so. n nThe last time he ran was one thing, with the media pumping for him as hard as they did, and McCain as feckless a campaigner as he was. But Obama has 4 years of history on which to be judged, I don't think he's going to win in November. n nI certainly hope not.
Eeyore Award – I like that idea. nMr. Tobin (as does anyone associated with Commentary) strikes me as very intelligent. I enjoy reading his work. But I think the "Inside the Beltway" mentality, though less potent in conservatives than in liberals, afflicts the former as well. (I don't know where Mr. Tobin lives – "Inside the Beltway" is just a description.) Heck, even the great Dr. Krauthammer viewed the first stirrings of the Tea Party as endangering the conservative movement. But to those of us who live, both literally and figuratively, a long, long way from the Beltway, things may seem more clear. In my little neck of the woods out here in a deep, deep blue corner of the Northwest (one of the most liberal precincts in the nation, I do believe) I see no enthusiasm for Obama, few bumper stickers, no yard signs as of yet. Even my colleagues who were gung-ho for Obama 4 years ago can only trash talk Romney and the Republicans now – there is no Hope this time around, no defense of their party's record. I've even got a few friends who may not vote for Obama in November – and trust me, the fact that they are even considering such apostasy is unbelievable.
Mike,my sympathies. I know what it is like to live in a deep blue area. I used to live in Rhode Island, and although the smallest state, and probably not even as big as your "corner" in Washington, it was still very discouraging to have almost all its 1200 square miles populated by Democrats, many of whom are left of center.
We live in NJ, a very dem state, but we live (praise the Lord) in a very republican part of it. n nI have seen almost NO bumper stickers and absolutely NO signs for Candidates. (Oh, except for the one Ron Paul supporter up the street – they are truly indefatigable they are.) n nMy surmise, and it could be WAY WRONG, is that people have already made up their minds. I just cannot see Obama being re-elected. What he has done has not worked, he has no proposals going forward (other than let's raise taxes), and unless you are a dyed in the wool lefty, I don't see what he offers.
nWe're broke we will not be to keep handing out goodies… These things aren't going to be options much longer.