Pundits who are quick to write off the Republicans’ chances of gaining the four Senate seats they need to take back the upper chamber after the Todd Akin fiasco in Missouri need to remember that the GOP has more opportunities for gains than they thought earlier in the year. The assumption that Claire McCaskill’s Missouri seat will easily fall into the GOP’s hands was blown up last week by Akin’s idiocy about pregnancy and rape. But it turns out that the Ohio seat held by liberal stalwart Sherrod Brown, which many Republicans weren’t counting among their potential pickups, is now very much in play. Republican candidate Josh Mandel, whose youth and relative lack of experience has been widely mocked by the Democrats, could replace Akin as the GOP’s majority maker.
That’s the only reasonable interpretation of the Columbus Dispatch survey of the Buckeye state that shows the Brown-Mandel race as being as much of a dead heat there as the one between President Obama and Mitt Romney. The Senate race is a 44-44 tie, while the Ohio presidential matchup is deadlocked at 45-45. That’s significant because when the same numbers in the Senate contest were posted by Rasmussen earlier in August, they were dismissed as inaccurate or inconsistent with other results. But with the Dispatch poll and a University of Cincinnati poll released last week that showed Brown leading Mandel 48-47, it’s now clear a race that was long judged to be an easy hold for the Democrats is now a tossup. After a summer during which the Brown camp has pounded Mandel with negative ads, Democrats have to be scratching their heads about these numbers.
Mandel was thought by some political observers to be too green and untested to defeat an entrenched incumbent like Brown. His list of political accomplishments is thin. He has less than two years as Ohio’s treasurer and two terms in the Ohio House of Representatives. Despite Brown’s designation as the “most liberal member of Congress” by the National Journal, the incumbent, who has also has seven terms in the U.S. House of Representatives under his belt, was assumed to have an easy opponent in Mandel. But despite that modest resume, it’s now apparent that voters seem to like the Republican. The 34-year-old may not look old enough to shave but there is something about the Marine veteran’s smart, youthful persona and upbeat style that attracts voters.
Back in June, Politico alleged that the only thing that was keeping Mandel’s hopes afloat was support from super PACs like American Crossroads. But in the intervening months, Mandel was carpet-bombed by labor PACS and other liberal big spenders who lambasted his candidacy and record. Rather than letting this Democrat counter-punch floor the GOP hopeful, Mandel has actually gained ground over the summer.
That has got to worry the Democrats, since it shows that the more the voters see of Mandel, the more they like him. And with Brown running slightly behind President Obama, he’s going to need a surge at the top of the ticket in order to be carried over the finish line. That means a Senate seat that Democrats believed they were likely to keep is very much up for grabs this fall. Akin’s collapse was a blow to the GOP’s plans to win the Senate. But since a Mandel win should no longer be considered a long shot, they can easily make up for a loss in Missouri with an unexpected triumph in Ohio.
"Pundits who are quick to write off the Republicans’ chances of gaining the four Senate seats they need to take back the upper chamber after the Todd Akin fiasco in Missouri need to remember that the GOP has more opportunities for gains than they thought earlier in the year." nMaybe pundits should pay more attention to the comment sections of blogs and newspapers! A lot of their readers weren't so quick to write off Republican chances. nAt any rate, here's a prediction – the closer we move to the election, the more we will see a repeat of 2010. Races that look close now won't by mid-October, and races Republicans weren't thinking about will suddenly become possibilities. As you imply here, the same will be true of the electoral college.
fascinating analysis- it mirrors the 1980 race when, as we all know, reagan was way behind before swamping carter.
The Democrats in Ohio went into major hysteria over Mandel the minute he entered the race. They are trying to downplay his qualfications, motives, integrity and commitment. They are certainly not taking his candidacy lightly.
You forgot to mention the millions upon millions of dollars being pumped into Mandel's campaign. Last I heard, he was outspending McCaskill by something like 10 to 1. That might be a bit more persuasive than Mandel's "youthful persona and upbeat style." n nBuying elections still works pretty well.
Rodger, that's a pefect example of the desperation I'm talking about. n nLet's assume your 10-to-1 figure is true. So what? When you say "Buying elections", do you mean that he is buying air time and other publicity? Don't forget that it takes money to offset Brown's built-in publicity advantage as the incumbent and long time Ohio politician. n nOr do you mean Mandel is actually paying people to vote for him (or to forge votes), in the best traditions of the Democratic Party, the labor unions and Acorn ? I think they call that defamation, unless you have some pretty good proof. n nDo you even live in Ohio or are you simply a shill for the Democratic Party? You must be an amateur, as a professional would at least get his smears ( excuse me, talking points) straight. Are you even aware that Mandel is not running against McCaskill? He is running against Brown. [more]
I say the same thing to all right wingers: I hope you all are very wealthy. If not, and if Romney gets in, you're in for a sad surprise. n nAt this moment, you have no idea what Romney believes, except that he owes his life to the Koch brothers. n nBe careful what you wish for. n nRodger Malcolm Mitchell
[part 2] If Brown is not raising as much, it ain't for want of trying. Maybe his message, what there is of it, does not appeal to as many people as Mandel's. Brown supported Obamacare. He defends the GM bailout that screwed lenders, retired teachers & non-UAW employees (union and non-union) for the benefit of the UAW, in violation of the bankruptcy act. He opposed the security barrier that makes it harder for Arabs to blow up Israeli civilians. He told constitutents visiting DC that he had nothing to discuss with them because they were Zionist Organization of America members. Not the guy I want to support.
Who said I love Romney. And not that it's any of your business, I am far from rich, and am 3 years from Medicare. If anyone is endangering the quality and availability of Medicare for my age cohort (and my parents' age cohort) it is the man in the White House. n nGM would have carried on in bankruptcy and pulled out, like many airlines have done. Instead Obama ignored the laws of creditor's priority in order to benefit his UAW supporters at the expense of other creditors similarly situated, and those entitled by law to priority. To say "The GM bailout didn't screw lenders. The GM bankruptcy screwed lenders." is either a lie or ignorance of the grossest sort. n[more]
[2] Rodger, I am not sure whether you are a troll, a shill or just a fool, but in any case nothing in your post merits a response. Everything in your post has been long since debunked. It is clear that you simply enjoy repeating the discredited talking points of the most shameless among the Obama supporters, either for your own amusement or in hopes of provoking a response, or perhaps simply because you cannot be bothered to investigate and think for yourself. But I suppose I should thank you for at least not calling me racist for not being an Obama groupie.
By the way, we were discussing Mandel, not Romney, How did Romney get into the discussion? Because you are unable or unwilling to have an honest discussion, and therefore resort to exactly the tactics I was describing. So, thanks again for proving my initial point.
I prefer talking about Romney because he is amazing — a man with no plan, no beliefs and no morals, who will receive lots of votes from people who, if he wins, will regret it the rest of their lives. As for Mandel, does he have a plan, or do you just love his party?
For one thing, I dislike Brown's positions and history. I also admire the way Mandel cut waste and inefficiency as Treasurer, and his willingness to buck his own party when he thinks they are wrong, as he did when he was in the Ohio Senate. I also think it important to have a GOP majoirty in both houses in order to undo some of the worst of Obama's legislation. n"no plan, no beliefs and no morals" Congratulations. You squeezed 3 lies into just 7 words, illustrating my point yet again. n"votes from people who, if he wins, will regret it the rest of their lives" Not nearly as much as I or they would regret what would happen under a second Obama term. As for Romney not being perfect, no human is. Unlike you and your ilk, conservatives & GOP members realize that this is an election for the presidency, not for the Messiah. Too many Obama fans are no more than idol worshippers.