Most Americans say President Obama will win reelection (58 percent) over Mitt Romney (36 percent), according to the latest Gallup poll. These numbers are basically indistinguishable from the same survey taken in May. While this measurement has been decent at predicting the winner since Clinton vs. Dole, there are some details that should worry Obama more than Romney:
Of course, Americans’ beliefs about who will win are influenced by their preferences. Those who say they would vote for Obama if the election were held today overwhelmingly believe he will win, by an 86% to 9% margin. One reason Obama has the edge in overall predictions about the election is that Romney voters are less positive that their candidate will prevail, with 28% saying Obama will win, compared with 65% who believe Romney will win.
It’s no surprise that partisans are more optimistic about their own candidate’s chances. But the numbers are still wildly lopsided — just 14 percent of Democrats think Romney is going to win. Compare that to 35 percent of Republicans who think Obama has the better shot.
The RealClearPolitics average of national polls shows the race at a dead-heat. While polls of general Americans tend to be more favorable toward Obama than polls of likely or registered voters, this survey still seems overly rosy for Obama under the circumstances.
Obama’s star power has faded since 2008, and Democrats know they’re going to struggle to bring out the same number of supporters to the polling booths. That’s why they’re investing so heavily in get-out-the-vote efforts. But if a whopping 86 percent of Democrats believe Obama has this contest in the bag — despite his mediocre poll numbers and the widespread economic dissatisfaction — then there’s much less of an incentive for them to show up on Election Day.
Leftist polls are predicated on a much higher voter turnout than is historically the norm in the US. And recently, even the Pew polls noted that of the people who claim they WOULD vote for Obama, they also said they won't vote at all, by a 2:1 margin over Romney supporters.
The best poll you could have is based on the number of people who come out to the rallies the candidates appear at. At this point Romney is ahead by a substanial margin, his drawing power is much stronger than Obama's and if this continues there is no question who will prevail.
I would be willing to bet that this poll over sampled democrats like the rest of the polls I have seen lately.
If the 58% figure is correct, with the overconfidence factor of Obama voters polled at 85% vs the underconfidence of Romney voters polled at 65%, Romney seems to be ahead 54-46. I just worked out the arithmetic.
Romney can win if Obama loses. A master politician like Obama is pitted against a 'good boy," one not much different from the guy he creamed the last election, John McCain. But Romney could win. n nBut if, as is likely, Romney doesn't win, we must face the reality that the GOP has in effect handed over the future of this nation to a far-Left ideologue. In that event, one hopes we have the sense and gumption to get rid of the Republican Party and start fresh—the way the Republicans did in the 1850s, when they replaced the tired and irrelevant Whigs. The Todd Akin affair is simply the last straw of many! n nI'm suggesting something called the Conservative Union Party, or CUP, because it defines an approach to governance (i.e., conservatism) and implies a wide range of moderate ideas and philosophies (i.e., a "union)." The lock the Religious Right has on the GOP makes it impossible to adapt to a changing electorate. We cannot continue the focus on abortion, nor our opposition to gay Americans, nor can we display hostility towards latinos any longer. As for religion as an issue, one wishes we had never let the Moral Majority control us the way they have for decades. Religion simply has no place in politics, other than as a backdrop for mainstream American life overall. This is a religious nation. Period. But politics is about governance and defense, finance and trade and about anything that pertains to them. It is not about religion. And yet the GOP has come to ally itself with citizens who want their politics steeped in religion. Which is why the GOP is no longer a party worth keeping after this election. n nWe need a new party, the Conservative Union Party, a party whose constituencies cut across class, race, gender, sexual orientation, and ethnicity. A party in which a man or woman's religion is simply ignored.
Most people I know are more fiscally conservative than Democrats and more socially liberal than Republicans. So, yes, you have a point. But, if we have more than two parties we need runoff elections. Meaning the ruling party must make concessions to either the religious right or the socialist left in order to be elected. Just like parliamentary democracies. Such is life.