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Re: The Jobs Numbers

The White House spins today’s grim August jobs report (which John Steele Gordon details below), calling it “further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to recover from the worst downturn since the Great Depression”:

While there is more work that remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to recover from the worst downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we continue the policies that are building an economy that works for the middle class as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007. To create more jobs in particularly hard-hit sectors, President Obama continues to support the elements of the American Jobs Act that have not yet passed, including further investment in infrastructure to rebuild our Nation’s ports, roads and highways, and assistance to State and local governments to prevent layoffs and to enable them to rehire hundreds of thousands of teachers and first responders. To build on the progress of the last few years, President Obama has also proposed an extension of middle class tax cuts that would prevent the typical middle class family from facing a $2,200 tax increase next year.

At the AEI blog, James Pethokoukis cites a far less optimistic take from Citigroup:

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.1% from 8.3%, but in this case with declines in both the labor force (-368,000) and the household-survey measure of employment (-119,000). With labor force participation falling back to a new cycle low of 63.5%, the drop in the unemployment rate should not be reported as good news.

Pethokoukis adds:

This was not the employment report either American workers or the Obama campaign were hoping for. A huge miss. It shows the U.S. labor market remains in a deep depression, generating few jobs and little if no income growth.

No amount of spin from the White House or Obama campaign can put a happy face on these numbers. While the unemployment rate dipped from 8.3 percent in July to 8.1 percent, Pethokoukis notes that the unemployment rate would actually be 8.4 percent if workforce participation had remained steady from July. The fact that many unemployed Americans have given up looking for jobs over the past month is obviously a distressing sign, even though it may have made the unemployment rate look modestly better on the surface.

Meanwhile, the Romney campaign jumped on the numbers this morning to contrast them with the positive recovery rhetoric from the Democratic National Convention: “If last night was the party, this morning is the hangover.”


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