President Obama may be enjoying a slight, if likely temporary, bounce in the polls this week. But one of the surveys showing him with a lead in a tight race over Mitt Romney also provides a breakdown of the data that confirms predictions that he is losing up to a quarter of the Jewish votes he got in 2008. The Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll gives a breakdown of religion along with other demographic groups and shows Obama leading among Jews by a margin of 59 to 35 percent with six percent undecided. While that is still a majority it is a dramatic decline from the 78 percent of the Jewish vote he got four years ago.
Obama has a 46-44 percent lead over Romney in the TIPP poll. That means Obama is suffering from a decline in support throughout the electorate from his 2008 victory when he won 53 percent of the vote. But the president’s loss of approximately 25 percent of Jewish voters this year is not matched by a similar decline in any other demographic group. Indeed even in the unlikely event that Obama was to win almost all of the undecided voters in the survey, that would barely match Michael Dukakis’ 64 percent of Jewish votes in 1988. Far more likely is a result that would leave the president with the lowest total of Jewish votes since 1980 when Jimmy Carter received 45 percent in a three-way race with Ronald Reagan and John Anderson. While some losses in Jewish support could be put down to disillusionment with his economic policies that is shared across the board, the only conceivable explanation for this far greater than average loss of Jewish votes is the administration’s difficult relationship with Israel.
Over the past year, Jewish Democrats have scoffed at predictions of a dramatic loss of support for Obama. The president’s attitude toward Israel was a major issue in the special election in New York’s 9th Congressional District and allowed Republican Bob Turner to steal a long-time Democratic stronghold with a disproportionately large Jewish population. But Democrats dismissed that result as an outlier and have been predicting that the president, who has conducted an election year charm offensive toward Jewish voters after three years of constant fights with Israel, would recoup any potential losses by Election Day.
Given the fact that a majority of Jews identify as liberals, the Republican Party’s social conservatism would seem to set up Romney for the same shellacking among Jewish voters that every GOP candidate has received since 1988. Instead, the TIPP poll shows him threatening to rival Ronald Reagan’s modern record set in 1980 when he won 39 percent of Jewish votes, the most ever by Republican since World War One. Since it is unreasonable to assume that Jews are any more riled up about the economy than any other faith or demographic group, the only possible explanation for this stunning result is dissatisfaction with Obama on Israel.
While Jews constitute a tiny portion of the total electorate anything close to a 59-35 percent result could have a major impact on the outcome in Florida with its large Jewish community. But it could also be meaningful elsewhere, especially if states like Pennsylvania or Ohio turn out to be close.
This problem was highlighted by last week’s fiasco at the Democratic National Convention when pro-Israel language was first removed from the party’s platform and then clearly not supported by the majority of delegates when some of it was put back into the document. The spectacle of the majority of Democratic delegates on the flower booing when both God and Jerusalem were put back into their platform will linger with viewers. Though Jewish Democrats like Democratic National Committee Chair Rep. Deborah Wasserman Schultz have sought to dismiss this incident as a non-story, the TIPP poll illustrates its importance.
For decades, Jewish Republicans have sought a GOP candidate who could equal Reagan’s achievement but they were mistaken. They needed a Democratic opponent like Jimmy Carter and in President Obama they may well have found one.
Jewish voters are crazy to take part in any polls, because we shall be blamed by both sides no matter how we vote. nDo you really believe that any Jew who, in 2008 either voted McCain, or no vote for President, actually were part of that exit poll that has burned "78%" into the narrative? n nAnd, how do you think Reagan won New York in 1980? Check the numbers. n nbtw, today, Obama campaign is carpeting USA channel re-runs of NCIS with Bill Clinton ads. NCIS probably has the highest pro-Israel viewership of any show. Another mistake by the GOP.
nWhat is this? The GOP hasn't abandoned the Jewish vote. I also don’t know how a Jewish person can vote for Obama – his administration has thrown Israel under the bus. n
Unfortunately, I have a lot of close people who are still blindly voting for this guy. I've tried explaining everything to them and they don't want to listen, mostly citing social issues they perceive Romney MAY do (nothing confirmed).
Will Charles Rangel warn Jewish voters that an Obama defeat will mean black violence on them in revenge for their racism, the way he did in connection with Mayor Dinkins' re-election bid?
Look for lots of veiled threats, and if the Obama actually loses, violence. n nHope I am wrong, but I think Obama has midwifed a terrible ethnic and class-based divisiveness into our country. n nSomeone said he was a third world leader of a first world country (style not race). Divide and conquer.
The Sharpton Pogrom is all but that in name. He already shouts every evening on TV that anyone who's not mindlessly lockstep with Obama is a racist.
In 2008, the threats of violence, if Obama lost, were in Brooklyn, so I guess Rangel can outsource that to Charles Barron in 2012. n nI have to admit that, now that I am redistricted out of Engel's CD into Rangel's new CD that I am still not sure whether to vote, because I know how the votes are analyzed by the Dems. n nWhich is why I wish everyone would stop fetishing over the "Jewish vote"
By the way, Charles Rangel and Adam Clayton Powell are the ONLY TWO men to hold that Congressional seat since World War 2. And both of them have served under a ceaseless storm of corruption and investigations.
Charles Rangel is poster boy of what is wrong with the US congress – he should have been kicked out of the congress for ethical violations.
Did Rev Wright conduct the poll or was it Al the Dull?
The two no's Democratic Convention could indicate that Jewish influence is no longer substantial enough to worry about out in the hinterlands, if many Jews do get turned off by yet another contemptuous reminder of their relative powerlessness.
In all the obsession by the media with “Jewish votes” and “Jewish money” and “Jewish power”, there has been little if any discussion of the Muslim vote or Muslim financial contributions in this election. Want to take a wild guess who’s the beneficiary? n nAlso what about the sources of Muslim money in this election? How much of it is coming from our “friends” in the Middle East (most likely hidden as “local” contributions)? n nNone of these topics are ever discussed in the mainstream press. They are much too busy chasing Adelson to look into topics that might embarrass their favorite candidate. n
The carry over to a large drop in Jewish votes and contributions to the mid term Congressional elections regardless of who wins the Presidency will be interesting. Chris Balloonhead Matthews already can barely contain himself from spluttering when he code-words "Adelson". If Barack "A Shiver Went Up My Leg" Obama looses? My god he'll be calling for Yellow Stars and justifying it by claiming it's what JFK would have done. n nThe upside is that American Jews need no longer worry about how much they should get kicked around in the 'big tent' of the Democratic party. We're gone.
It's going to be ugly for Jews, either way. If the Jewish turnout for the Obama is less than 75%, they will be further up the 'enemies list', and Israel better batten down the hatches, cause he'll be going after them like the thin skinned, vindictive pr**k he is, and if the Obama loses, Jews will take the blame and the the left will go after them and Israel with pitchforks.
Jews will get it from both sides. On conservative web sites, I have seen comments from Jew-hating trolls blaming Jews for Obama, socialism in general, and a supposed war on Christianity, and wearing out their (our) welcome in every country that has graciously allowed Jews to lve there. Expect those kinds of comments to increase if Jewish support for Obama continues in any measure.
Maybe it's time for the Jewish voters to turn to the GOP?
Maybe it"s time for Jews in America to return to their own land – Israel – and take responsibility for their destiny. A far more honorable alternative than whining and kvetching about the lost love of Obama and the Democrats.
Let me tell you this I am a conservative republican who happens to be a christian as well and I love Israel and I have a lot of respect for them as a nation – We can not allow the democratic party led by Obama to throw them under the bus… I was playing golf with one of my buddies that happens to be Jewish and I asked him how the heck can anyone of Jewish faith back this president? Ha! Let me just say that his answer was very interesting. My buddy hates Obama.
I also am a Christian who loves Israel — do not forget that it is OUR Holy Land too. nDo not forget that the Torah, translated into English (in my case, 16th Century English) constitutes 3/4 of the Christian Bible. nJesus was a Jew and considered himself a Jew and lived as such — the "Last Supper" was a Passover Seder in the full tradition and practices of Judaism of that era. The issue with the moneychangers in the temple wasn't that they were in the outer temple (which was allowed) but that they were cheating people (which wasn't) and his issue was that Jewish law wasn't being enforced — he though it ought to be. Et Cetera. n nRemember too what the IDF said when they liberated Jerusalem — that they intended to have the city open to people of all faiths, and it is. Israel deserves a lot of credit for that alone. n nIsrael also deserves a lot of credit for having been there for us during the darkest days of the Cold War, when the Soviets were supporting all her neighbors (all technically at war with her). The British Admiral Nelson stated that "every successful naval battle was fought from a secure land base" and even in the era of aircraft carriers, that is still likely to be true. Israel has been flying American-made aircraft so long that a lot of its infrastructure is designed to be compatible with them, its mechanics are used to working on them, they have the right tools to fit them. n nIsrael is and has been an important American ally *and* a significant resource in American national security. Notwithstanding everything else, this alone is significant as well — as, by implication, what Obama is saying about US security in tossing Israel to the wolves.
Sample size: 808 registered voters. Can't possibly be enough Jews in that sample for statistically meaningful results for the breakdown by religion. You need a survey targeting Jewish voters to put any faith in the results.
I don't remember Israeli flags being burnt in London during the Carter Administration. n nI think, however, the real question to ask here, particularly in light of some of the comments above, is the accuracy of the polling — what pollsters call "variance" and what Socrates would have called "the noble lie." There is a natural human tendency to want to get along with others, to promote social harmony and to avoid discord — to shy away from saying things that are publicly unpopular. n nMy field is education an in an attempt to get my students – future K-12 teachers – to think for themselves, I have sometimes started a (college) course saying something totally off-the-wall wrong and it is amazing how far I can go before some student eventually (timidly) challenges me on it. When I then discuss the point I was trying to make, it usually comes out that the rest of the class also thought I was wrong, but just didn't want to rock the boat. Didn't want to be controversial. n nI suspect that there are a lot of Democrats — particularly a lot of Jewish Democrats — who are publicly telling people of their intent to vote for Obama, who may even display an Obama bumper sticker or two, but who have absolutely no intention of ever voting for him. Who, in the privacy of the voting booth, will take great pleasure voting *against* him and in knowing that the spouse is doing likewise, but aren't going to tell a soul outside of the immediate family. n nThe other problem with polling is that they have gone from something like 37% of the calls made resulting in someone participating in the poll down to something like 7%. Telemarketing has destroyed the ability to do accurate telephone polling, and the variance between the population that is willing to (a) answer the phone and (b) participate in the poll and the larger population is back to where it was for the infamous 1932 telephone poll that showed the GOP winning in a landslide. (Remember who had a telephone in 1932 when they were very expensive.) n nAs bad as the Carter years were, with the Iranian embassy and the "Death to America" chants and the US flags being burnt, I don't remember seeing any Israeli flags being burnt along with them. nAnd I definitely don't remember seeing them being burnt in Europe. n nI can't be the only one old enough to actually sorta remember Carter who is noticing this….